Jolly Maintains Lead in Florida Governor’s Race

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Stephen Clermont, Change Research
RE: Jolly Maintains Lead in Florida Governor’s Race

David Jolly Leads Byron Donalds 48% to 46% among Likely Voters
63% of NPA Voters Disapprove of Trump’s job performance

From September 25 to September 27, Change Research surveyed 1,063 voters who say they will likely vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election. The survey was sponsored by Freedom Project USA, which was founded to educate and defend the values that have made America the envy of the world: freedom, hard work, and entrepreneurial spirit.

Florida is a Toss Up:

• Florida Governor Race: Jolly-Graham, the Democratic ticket, leads Donalds-Avila, the Republican ticket, 48% to 46% among likely voters.
• Florida Senate Race: Incumbent U.S. Senator Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 48% to 47% among likely voters.
• Democrats hold a 10-point lead on extremely motivated to vote: 85% to 75%.
• NPA voters rate Trump’s job approval at 63% disapproving, with 54% strongly disapproving. Overall, 53% of Florida voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with 49% strongly disapproving.
• Despite spending $85 million only 38% of likely Florida voters have a favorable view of Byron Donalds. Just 3% of Democrats and only 23% of NPA voters have a favorable view of him.
• 48% of likely voters believe that Byron Donalds “works to satisfy Donald Trump.”
• 47% of likely voters believe Byron Donald’s decisions will be guided by “the millions of dollars he has taken from the special interests,” compared to 31% of likely voters saying that Byron Donald’s decisions will be guided by “what is in the best interests of Florida’s families” (3% of Democrats, 19% of NPAs and only 50% of Republicans).