Change Research surveyed 1,277 registered voters in Florida from September 25-27, 2026. Of these voters, 1,063 report their motivation to vote at an 8, 9, or 10 on a 0-10 scale with 10 being extremely motivated to vote and 0 not being motivated at all. These are referred to as “likely voters.” In addition, 209 voters rate their motivation from 0 to 7. These are referred to as “Not likely voters.” We used the following sources to recruit respondents:
Regardless of which source a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on SurveyMonkey’s website.
Ads placed on social media targeted registered voters in Florida. Those who indicated that they were not registered to vote were terminated. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented, and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English.
The survey was commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, 2024 presidential vote, and region. Weighting parameters are based on the demographic composition of voters in Florida, based on voter file data. That is, if x% of registered voters in the state were women, women would be weighted to x%. 2024 general election data was based on data from the Florida Secretary of State. For this survey, we define “likely voters” as those who say their motivation to vote is an 8, 9, or 10. 1,107 fit this definition. “Less likely” voters are those who rate their motivation from 0 through 7. 210 fit this description.
The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 2.8%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting. This research, like all public opinion research, does entail some additional unmeasured error.
* We adopt The Pew Research Center's convention for the term "modeled margin of error"(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys, assuming a proportion estimate of 50%.
** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents and is calculated using Kish's approximation (2).
(1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/
(2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965.
For more information, contact Stephen Clermont at stephen@changeresearch.com
Are you:
Age (derived from birth year)
In what ZIP code do you currently live? [TEXT BOX]
What is your race?
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Are you currently registered to vote in Florida?
Regardless of which party you currently identify with, are you registered with:
How did you vote in the 2024 election for President, or for some reason were you unable to vote?
There will be a general election in November 2026 for Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local offices. How motivated are you to vote in this election on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you are not motivated at all and 10 means you are extremely motivated?
How favorable are your feelings about each of the following public figures and groups? If you haven’t heard of them, please indicate it.
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Byron Donalds
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
If the election for Florida Governor were held today, who would you vote for? (If undecided) If you had to choose, who would you vote for?
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (If undecided) If you had to choose, who would you vote for?
Given what you know about Byron Donalds’s time in Congress, which best describes him? Choose one or two.
If Byron Donalds is elected Governor his decisions will be guided more by:
Custom research, AI targeting, and rapid-turn polling — built around your race, your districts, and your timeline.