An Emerging Florida Blue Wave

To: Interested Parties
From: Stephen Clermont, Change Research
RE: An Emerging Florida Blue Wave

Jolly Leads Florida Governor’s Race 47% to 44%
Nixon 47%, Moody 47%

From September 7 to September 9, Change Research surveyed 1,107 voters who say they will likely vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election. The survey was sponsored by Freedom Project USA, which was founded to educate and defend the values that have made America the envy of the world: freedom, hard work, and entrepreneurial spirit.

3 Big Takeaways:

1. For Florida Governor: Jolly-Graham, the Democratic ticket, leads Donalds-Avila, the Republican ticket, 47% to 44%. Despite spending $65M Donalds’ favorable rating is only 34% with an unfavorable rating of 46%.
2. The U.S. Senate race: Angie Nixon 47%, Ashley Moody 47%. Incumbent U.S. Senator Ashley Moody’s favorable rating is 33%.
   • In the Attorney General race, Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez is tied with Republican James Uthmeier, 46% to 46%.
   • In the CFO race, Democrat Annette Taddeo is tied with Republican Blaise Ingoglia, 44% to 44%.
   • Democrats hold an 8-point vote motivation lead, 92% to 84%.
3. President Donald Trump’s favorable rating is 43%, with an unfavorable rating of 53%.

Why is Byron Donalds in Electoral Trouble? Despite spending over $65 million dollars and hammering David Jolly for weeks on television, voters still do not like Byron Donalds and view him as part of the problem.

• After reading these two positive arguments that both campaigns are making, Jolly leads Donalds 50% to 45%:

Donalds is Part of the Problem:

• 78% of likely voters aware of the HOPE Florida controversy say they do not trust Donalds “to clean up the corruption like what was accused in the HOPE Florida controversy.”
• 56% of likely voters are extremely concerned when they learn “Byron Donalds’s campaign for Governor has raised over $110 million. Some highlights include $9 million from Wall Street and private equity interests, $7.5 million from one individual who wants to end public education, $5 million from AI data center builders, $4 million from gambling interests, $1.6 million from big utility companies, $1.5 million from private prison builders, and millions more from Tallahassee lobbyists.”
• 51% of likely voters say that if Bryon Donalds is elected Governor, his decisions will be guided by “the millions he has taken from special interests,” versus 27% of likely voters say that Donalds will be guided by “what is in the best interests of Florida families.”
• 25% of likely voters say that Bryon Donalds has worked to lower costs for Floridians while in Congress versus 52% say he works to satisfy Donald Trump.

Despite all the resources Donalds has spent:

• 40% say ‘corrupt’ describes Donalds better versus 20% for Jolly.
• 29% say ‘honest’ describes Donalds better versus 37% for Jolly.
• 29% say ‘uniter’ describes Donalds better versus 39% for Jolly.
• 37% say ‘trust most to do what is right for Florida’ describes Donalds better versus 44% for Jolly.

Donalds attacks on Jolly are falling flat: only 31% believe Jolly will raise taxes on Social Security, 34% believe Jolly is for taxing tips, 28% believe Jolly is for genital mutilation for children, 33% believe Jolly is radical. Note: While all the attacks have no merit, the data suggests any impact is driven by less than half of Republican voters and just do not resonate with NPA’s or Democrats.