Florida | AAPOR Methodology Statement | September 7-9, 2026

Methodology

Change Research surveyed 1,317 registered voters in Florida from September 7-9, 2026. Of these voters, 1,107 report their motivation to vote at an 8, 9, or 10 on a 0-10 scale with 10 being extremely motivated to vote and 0 not being motivated at all. These are referred to as “likely voters.” In addition, 210 voters rate their motivation from 0 to 7. These are referred to as “Not likely voters.” We used the following sources to recruit respondents:

• targeted advertisements on Facebook and Instagram, as well as across the web via Facebook’s ad platform
• text messages sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data[1]

Regardless of which source a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on SurveyMonkey’s website.

Ads placed on social media targeted registered voters in Florida. Those who indicated that they were not registered to vote were terminated. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented, and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English.

The survey was commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, 2024 presidential vote, and region. Weighting parameters are based on the demographic composition of voters in Florida, based on voter file data. That is, if x% of registered voters in the state were women, women would be weighted to x%. 2024 general election data was based on data from the Florida Secretary of State. For this survey, we define “likely voters” as those who say their motivation to vote is an 8, 9, or 10. 1,107 fit this definition. “Less likely” voters are those who rate their motivation from 0 through 7. 210 fit this description.

The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 2.8%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting. This research, like all public opinion research, does entail some additional unmeasured error.

* We adopt The Pew Research Center's convention for the term "modeled margin of error"(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys, assuming a proportion estimate of 50%.

** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents and is calculated using Kish's approximation (2).
(1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/
(2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965.

For more information, contact Stephen Clermont at stephen@changeresearch.com

Reported Questions (All Voters)

Are you:

• A man - 46
• A woman - 54

Age (derived from birth year)

• 18 to 34 - 15
• 35 to 49 - 20
• 50 to 64 - 29
• 65+ - 36

In what ZIP code do you currently live? [TEXT BOX]

What is your race?

• White / Caucasian - 66
• Hispanic or Latino/a - 18
• Black or African American - 12
• Asian / Pacific Islander - 1
• American Indian or Alaska Native - 1
• Other (please specify): [text box] - 3

What is the highest level of education you have completed?

• High school diploma or less - 14
• Some college, but no degree - 24
• Associate’s degree, or two-year college degree - 16
• Bachelor’s degree, or four-year college degree - 28
• Graduate degree - 18

Are you currently registered to vote in Florida?

• Yes - 100
• No - 0
• Not sure - 0

Regardless of which party you currently identify with, are you registered with:

• The Democratic Party - 34
• The Republican Party - 45
• No Party Affiliation - 20
• Some Other Party - 2

How did you vote in the 2024 election for President, or for some reason were you unable to vote?

• Kamala Harris, the Democrat - 40
• Donald Trump, the Republican - 51
• A third party candidate - 3
• Not registered/Too young/Ineligible - 1
• Did not vote - 5

There will be a general election in November 2026 for Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local offices. How motivated are you to vote in this election on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you are not motivated at all and 10 means you are extremely motivated?

• 8-10 Motivation - 84

• 10 - Extremely motivated - 75
• 9 - 4
• 8 - 4
• 7 - 3
• 6 - 2
• 5 - 3
• 4 - 1
• 3 - 2
• 2 - 1
• 1 - 0
• 0 - Not motivated at all - 4

Likely Voters

How favorable are your feelings about each of the following public figures and groups? If you haven’t heard of them, please indicate it.

Donald Trump

• Very favorable - 33
• Somewhat favorable - 10
• Neutral - 4
• Somewhat unfavorable - 3
• Very unfavorable - 50
• Never heard of them - 1

• Total Favorable - 43
• Total Unfavorable - 53

Ron DeSantis

• Very favorable - 42
• Somewhat favorable - 7
• Neutral - 3
• Somewhat unfavorable - 6
• Very unfavorable - 42
• Never heard of them - 0

• Total Favorable - 49
• Total Unfavorable - 48

Byron Donalds

• Very favorable - 18
• Somewhat favorable - 15
• Neutral - 11
• Somewhat unfavorable - 6
• Very unfavorable - 40
• Never heard of them - 9

• Total Favorable - 34
• Total Unfavorable - 46

Ashley Moody

• Very favorable - 22
• Somewhat favorable - 11
• Neutral - 15
• Somewhat unfavorable - 5
• Very unfavorable - 32
• Never heard of them - 15

• Total Favorable - 33
• Total Unfavorable - 37

If the election for Florida Governor were held today, who would you vote for? (If undecided) If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

• David Jolly and Gwen Graham, the Democratic ticket - 47
• Byron Donalds and Bryan Avila, the Republican ticket - 44
• Not sure - 7
• Would not vote - 1

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (If undecided) If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

• Angie Nixon, the Democrat - 47
• Ashley Moody, the Republican - 47
• Not sure - 5
• Would not vote - 1

If the election for Florida Attorney General were held today, who would you vote for? (If undecided) If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

• Jose Javier Rodriguez, the Democrat - 46
• James Uthmeier, the Republican - 46
• Not sure - 11
• Would not vote - 2

If the election for Florida Chief Financial Officer were held today, who would you vote for? (If undecided) If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

• Annette Taddeo, the Democrat - 44
• Blaise Ingoglia, the Republican - 44
• Not sure - 11
• Would not vote - 1

Please read the following information about the leading candidates for Governor of Florida.

If the election for Florida Governor were held today, who would you vote for?

• David Jolly, the Democrat - 50
• Byron Donalds, the Republican - 45
• Not sure - 4
• Would not vote - 1

For each of the following, please indicate whether you think the word or phrase better describes David Jolly or better describes Byron Donalds.

Corrupt

• Byron Donalds - 40
• David Jolly - 20
• Both of them - 11
• Neither of them - 11
• Not sure - 18

Honest

• David Jolly - 37
• Byron Donalds - 29
• Both of them - 3
• Neither of them - 18
• Not sure - 13

Uniter

• David Jolly - 39
• Byron Donalds - 29
• Both of them - 3
• Neither of them - 16
• Not sure - 14

Trust most to do what is right for Florida

• David Jolly - 44
• Byron Donalds - 37
• Both of them - 1
• Neither of them - 12
• Not sure - 7

How well does each of the following describe David Jolly?

Will raise taxes on Social Security

• Very well - 20
• Somewhat well - 11
• Not too well - 7
• Not well at all - 31
• Not sure - 30

• Total Well - 31
• Total Not Well - 38

For taxing tips

• Very well - 23
• Somewhat well - 12
• Not too well - 8
• Not well at all - 22
• Not sure - 36

• Total Well - 34
• Total Not Well - 30

For genital mutilation of children

• Very well - 19
• Somewhat well - 9
• Not too well - 4
• Not well at all - 36
• Not sure - 31

• Total Well - 28
• Total Not Well - 40

Radical

• Very well - 20
• Somewhat well - 12
• Not too well - 12
• Not well at all - 32
• Not sure - 23

• Total Well - 33
• Total Not Well - 45

How much have you seen, heard, or read about the controversy about HOPE Florida?

• A lot - 27
• Some - 22
• Not too much - 14
• Nothing at all - 28
• Not sure - 10

[If heard a lot/some] How much do you trust Byron Donalds to clean up corruption like what is accused in the HOPE Florida controversy?

• Trust a lot - 10
• Trust some - 9
• Trust a little - 5
• Do not trust at all - 74
• Not sure - 3

• Total A Lot/Some - 19
• Total Not at all/A Little - 78

Given what you know about Byron Donalds’s time in Congress, which best describes him? Choose one or two.

• Works to satisfy Donald Trump - 52
• Says one thing and does another if politically in his best interest - 27
• Focused on his donors - 25
• Works to lower costs for Floridians - 25
• Passed major pieces of legislation - 12
• None of these describe Byron Donalds’s time in Congress - 4
• Not sure - 14

If Byron Donalds is elected Governor his decisions will be guided more by:

• The millions of dollars he has taken from special interests - 51
• What is in the best interests of Florida families - 27
• Both of these - 11
• Neither of these - 3
• Not sure - 9

“Byron Donalds’s campaign for Governor has raised over $110 million. Some highlights include $9 million from Wall Street and private equity interests, $7.5 million from one individual who wants to end public education, $5 million from AI data center builders, $4 million from gambling interests, $1.6 million from big utility companies, $1.5 million from private prison builders, and millions more from Tallahassee lobbyists.

On a scale of 0 to 10, given what you know about Byron Donalds’s $110 million he has taken for his gubernatorial campaign, and his votes and statements in support of his donors, how concerned will you be about corruption in his office if Byron Donalds is elected Governor?”

• Total Extremely Concerned - 56

• 10 - Extremely concerned - 49
• 9 - 3
• 8 - 4
• 7 - 4
• 6 - 2
• 5 - 8
• 4 - 4
• 3 - 4
• 2 - 3
• 1 - 3
• 0 - Not concerned at all - 17