Case StudyPACs

Nine districts, five days, within 2.5 points.

How Change Research polled nine tough Virginia districts in under a week — and came within 2.5 points of the result.

2.5 ptsaccuracy vs. final vote

5 daysto field 9 districts

The Challenge

WinVirginia is a PAC focused on expanding Democratic representation in the Virginia House and Senate. In 2019, it needed reliable reads across nine rural and conservative-leaning House and Senate districts — exactly the kind of hard terrain where Democrats had struggled and where good data was scarce.

The constraint was time. To be useful for late-cycle decisions, the polling had to cover all nine districts and come back fast enough to act on, without sacrificing the accuracy those high-stakes calls demanded.

The Approach

In 2019, Change Research polled nine rural and conservative-leaning House and Senate districts within a five-day period for WinVirginia. The speed of the program gave the PAC accurate, district-level reads across a wide battlefield in time to inform its decisions in the closing stretch of the campaign.

The Results

Accuracy all across the battlefield.

2.5 ptsoff final two-party vote

9districts polled

5 daysfielding

Ruralhard-terrain districts

Change Research’s estimate for the Democratic vote came within 2.5 points of the final two-party vote — accuracy delivered across nine difficult districts, and fast enough to matter.

Success

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