Case StudyCampaigns

Made history in a crowded field.

How Change Research helped Mayor Tim Keller navigate a seven-candidate field and win an unprecedented third consecutive term in Albuquerque.

3rdconsecutive term — a city first

2polling waves, summer to runoff

The Challenge

A third term no Albuquerque mayor had ever won, in a field of seven.

Mayor Tim Keller was pursuing a third consecutive term in Albuquerque — a first in the city’s history. He faced challenges from his left and his right, and a crowded, seven-candidate field where a runoff looked likely.

The Approach

Two waves, timed to the moments the race would turn.

Change Research, which had polled Keller’s 2021 campaign as well, tracked the race in two waves through the run-up to the runoff, from a summer benchmark to a final read at the end of October. Change Research’s polling helped the Mayor navigate the large field, and develop ads highlighting his accomplishments and the threat that would come from his Republican opponent, Darren White, replacing him.

The Results

A historic third straight term.

The polling gave the campaign a clear, independent picture of where Keller stood and how a crowded field was breaking, and Keller went on to win the December runoff 58% to 42% — the historic third straight term no prior Albuquerque mayor had achieved.

As a publicly financed campaign, our budget was limited, so every dollar had to count. Change Research's polling gave us a clear, independent read on a crowded race and helped us focus our resources where they would have the greatest impact. It proved to be remarkably accurate when the votes came in.

Neri Holguin

Campaign Manager, Mayor Tim Keller for Albuquerque

Success

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