Case StudyCampaigns

Outran the top of the ticket.

How Change Research helped Rep. Lauren Underwood navigate an unprecedented cycle and outperform Joe Biden's vote share in her district.

50.6%Underwood vote share
+0.5 ptsahead of Biden in district
Lauren Underwood
The Challenge

Lauren Underwood was a registered nurse and career public servant at the Department of Health and Human Services until she pulled off a historic upset against a four-term GOP congressman. Holding that seat in 2020 meant navigating an unprecedented run of political and policy challenges — impeachment, COVID-19, police violence, and historic protests — all at once.

The campaign needed research that could identify the issues mattering most to undecided voters and pinpoint where those voters were, while accounting for how dramatically the mechanics of voting itself were shifting in 2020.

The Approach

Change Research first worked with Rep. Underwood when she was elected in 2018. In 2020, Change Research conducted polls throughout the cycle on behalf of her re-election campaign, helping her team navigate impeachment, COVID-19, police violence, and historic protests. The polling informed the campaign’s communications, which highlighted Rep. Underwood’s positive agenda and accomplishments and critiqued her Republican challenger.

Change Research advised the campaign about the differential use of mail-in voting by partisans and how it would shape the rhythm of the final month and the closing message. On Election Night, with Underwood behind in the ballot count, Change Research used public data and its own polling to project the breakdown of the outstanding ballots — and the congresswoman’s re-election.

The Results
50.6%Underwood Vote Share
50.1%Biden Vote Share in District
2020Full-Cycle Polling
FlipSeat flipped and held

Lauren Underwood was one of the few Frontline candidates to outperform Joe Biden’s vote share, winning 50.6% to Biden’s 50.1% in the district. Change Research’s full-cycle polling, communications guidance, and election-night ballot projection helped the campaign hold a top-targeted seat through one of the most turbulent and hardest-to-poll cycles in memory.

Success

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