Enthusiasm Gap: Democratic Voters Supported, Republican Voters More Often Opposed

Change Research conducted polling the weekend prior to the Election to get a final read on voters’ opinions heading into Tuesday. We surveyed likely voters in key swing Senate states. We found that Democratic voters in Michigan and South Carolina were much more likely to cast a vote in favor of their preferred candidate, while Republican voters were split between support for their candidate and opposition to the Democratic candidate.

In our poll, we asked voters who said they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate whether their vote was mainly for their candidate or against the opponent. Overall, Michigan voters were generally split: 68% said they voted for their candidate and 32% said they voted against the opponent. But breaking down the numbers by the candidates, El-Sayed’s base turned out for him (79% said their vote was for El-Sayed) while Rogers’s voters were less inspired by their candidate (just 57% said their vote was mainly for Rogers). In our open-ended questions asking voters why they supported their candidate, this trend holds. A majority of the open-ends among Rogers voters cited their opposition to El-Sayed and Democrats, while El-Sayed’s voters were more likely to point to specific policy issues and his platform.

We see a similar trend in South Carolina but with greater intensity behind Andrews. South Carolina voters were more likely than Michigan voters to say they voted in support of their candidate (65% said their vote was mainly for their candidate, 35% said their vote was mainly against the opponent). This is clearest for Andrews: 78% of Andrews voters said they voted in support of her. Graham’s voters were effectively split (52% voted for their candidate, 49% voted against the opponent). Diving into the open-ends.