A Major Shift Among Michigan's Arab and Muslim Voters

Many political observers have noted higher levels of support for Democrats in 2026 among Latinos and young voters. A recent Change Research poll, conducted on behalf of New Arc Collective, suggests that in Michigan, the shift among Arab and Muslim voters relative to 2024 may be even larger.

Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan favored Kamala Harris in 2024, according to their recalled votes in this survey, but not by much: 36% report voting for her, while 27% pulled the lever for Donald Trump. Another 23% voted for a third-party candidate, and 14% did not vote.

In this year's elections, these same voters are favoring Democrats by large margins: gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson leads 63-17, while Abdul El-Sayed leads 77-18 in the U.S. Senate race. Both Democrats have the support of the vast majority of those who voted for Harris, voted for a third-party candidate, or did not vote. And both are even winning over a meaningful share of Trump voters: Benson has the support of 27% of those who voted for Trump, while El-Sayed has 34%.

Arab and Muslim voters also report being very fired up to vote: 86% rate their motivation as 8 out of 10 or higher. As is true across states and demographic groups, motivation is much higher on the Democratic side: 90% of Democrats rank their motivation as 8 or higher, while 81% of Republicans do. And 71% of respondents say they're more enthusiastic to vote in this election than previous years.

Arab and Muslim voters comprise roughly 2 percent of Michigan's electorate, so a 50-point swing among these groups relative to 2024 (in line with El-Sayed’s polling) could shift the statewide margin by about a percentage point. In Michigan’s frequently close elections, one percentage point can be a big deal: Senator Elissa Slotkin carried the state by under one percentage point in 2024, while Donald Trump carried Michigan by just over a point. If the Governor or Senate race is similarly close on Tuesday, the margins among Arab and Muslim voters could be pivotal.