Most Voters Say Canada Trade Fight Will Cost Them

A Change Research national survey of 2,021 registered voters, conducted September 15–24, 2026, finds that 73% of voters expect the ongoing trade dispute with Canada to cause prices in the United States to rise, including 44% who say prices will go up "a lot." 58% say the U.S. is picking an unnecessary fight with a close ally. The modeled margin of error is ±2.3 percentage points.

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect on September 8, just days before this survey was fielded, after trade negotiations between Washington and Ottawa collapsed in late August. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, from hockey sticks to agricultural equipment; Canada responded with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion in American products, targeting steel, dairy, appliances, and agricultural equipment.

The U.S.-Canada Relationship

37% of voters say the U.S. and Canada benefit about equally from their trade relationship. Breaking that down, 34% say Canada benefits more, while 15% say the U.S. benefits more. 14% are not sure.

58% of Democrats say the two countries benefit about equally from the trade relationship; 66% of Republicans say Canada has more benefits.

Views on the Trade Dispute

The majority of voters (58%) say the U.S. is picking an unnecessary fight with a close ally that has been a reliable friend and neighbor. 35% say the U.S. is right to push for a better deal from a country that has taken advantage of America for years, while 7% are not sure.

By party identification, 97% of Democrats say the U.S. is picking an unnecessary fight with Canada. 75% of Republicans say the U.S. is right to push for a better deal; 15% of Republicans call it an unnecessary fight. 73% of independents say the U.S. is picking an unnecessary fight, and 16% say the U.S. is right to push.

62% of women call the dispute an unnecessary fight with a close ally, compared with 53% of men. 41% of men say the U.S. is right to push for a better deal, compared with 29% of women.

Expected Price Impact

When asked what effect ongoing trade disputes might have, 74% of voters say they expect it will cause prices to rise. 44% say prices will go up "a lot," and 30% say prices will go up "a little." 17% say the dispute will have no real effect on prices. 8% are not sure.

Broken down further, 70% of Democrats say prices will go up "a lot," compared with 13% of Republicans; 37% of Republicans say prices will go up "a little." In total, 94% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans expect prices to rise. 50% of women say prices will go up "a lot," compared with 37% of men.

Trade Leadership Ratings

Among voters who have seen or heard about the trade disputes, 50% say Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is more effectively looking out for his country's interests, compared with 37% who say President Trump is. 13% are not sure.

56% of voters who have followed the dispute developments say Carney is looking out for Canada's interests at least "somewhat well"; 29% say he is not. 40% say Trump is looking out for U.S. interests at least "somewhat well"; 57% say he is not.

90% of Democrats who have heard about the dispute say, of the two leaders, Carney is more effectively looking out for his country, compared with 2% who say Trump. 79% of Republicans who have heard about the dispute say Trump, and 7% say Carney. Among Independents, who have heard about the dispute say Carney, and 21% say Trump.

Methodology

Polling was conducted online from September 15–24, 2026. Using Dynamic Online Sampling to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 2,021 registered voters in the United States. The modeled margin of error is ±2.3 percentage points. As a member of AAPOR's Transparency Initiative, Change Research discloses all relevant details about our research, with the principle that the public should be able to evaluate and understand research-based findings in order to instill and restore public confidence in survey results.