TO: Interested Parties FROM: Stephen Clermont, Change Research RE: A Florida Toss Up
Jolly 47%, Donalds 47%
From October 8 – October 10, Change Research surveyed 920 Florida voters who say they will likely vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election. The survey was sponsored by Freedom Project USA, which was founded to educate the public about and defend the values that have made America the envy of the world: freedom, hard work, and entrepreneurial spirit.
Key Insights:
47% Jolly-Graham, 47% Donalds-Avila
Democrats hold an 11-point vote motivation lead (86% to 75%)
Just 5% of Black voters have a favorable opinion of Byron Donalds. 66% view him unfavorably
52% of likely voters say, “Byron Donalds works to satisfy Donald Trump.”
50% of likely voters say, “Byron Donalds will be guided by the millions he has taken from special interests” versus 32% of voters who say, “Byron Donalds will be guided by what is in the best interests of Florida families.”
Trump’s very unfavorable rating is 47%, among NPA (non-affiliated) voters it is 56%
MAGA has a 63% unfavorable rating among NPA voters
66% of likely voters say they are falling behind the cost of living
63% of likely voters say Florida is not affordable
Bottom line: Byron Donalds has spent $100 million and has been attacking David Jolly relentlessly since early August. The attacks are falling flat against the backdrop of an unpopular president, and with two-thirds of voters saying they are falling behind the cost of living. This will be a very close election that has huge national implications.
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