
A Change Research survey of 967 North Carolinians, conducted July 29 through August 1, 2026 (see here for topline results and here for the methodology), asked respondents an open-ended question: “If you could send a message to Donald Trump, what would it be?” The answers from Republican respondents reveal a coalition that is holding together in most places, and straining in a few.
Last week, former US representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia shared a picture on X taken at podcaster Tucker Carlson’s cabin in Maine. At the table along with them were Representative Thomas Massie and Joe Kent, the former head of the US National Counterterrorism Center.

“We said no more foreign wars and we meant it and supported Donald Trump because he made that promise,” Greene wrote. “But he’s betrayed us all. Our commitment is America First for all Americans, right, left, and center. The movement has begun.”
That frustration, it turns out, extends to Republican voters in North Carolina.
We looked at two groups. “Definite Republicans” support the Republican for the North Carolina legislature, approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, and hold a favorable or neutral view of the Republican Party. “Movable Republicans” are undecided for the North Carolina legislature, somewhat disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing, or hold unfavorable views of both parties.
Seventy-nine percent of Republicans are “Definite” and 20% are “Movable.” Given that Trump only won the state by 3.2 points, Republican candidates can afford few defections this year if they want to hold on to power in Congress and the state legislature. Only 40% of voters overall approve of the job the president is doing - 11 points lower than the share of the vote he received two years ago. Among Republicans, while 88% approve of the job he is doing, only a bare majority (54%) strongly approve.
In examining the Republican respondents, we found a significant disparity between the messages that Definite Republicans and Movable Republicans would send to the President.
Definite Republicans write as supporters addressing someone on their own team. Their pronouns are inclusive of him - “we love you,” “we have your back,” “we are behind you.” Where they criticize, they soften it with an apology, a compliment, or a rationale for why the change would help him. The dominant grammatical mood is encouragement: continue, don’t stop, stay strong. Even harsh policy demands arrive wrapped in warmth.
Movable Republicans write as constituents addressing a contractor who is behind schedule. Their pronouns separate him from them - “work for us,” “do what we asked you to do,” “are we not worth it.” Their messages are longer, more conditional, and far more likely to contain a pivot word: but, yet, stop, why. Praise, when it appears, is frequently qualified rather than freestanding (“All the positives you’re doing are being seriously outweighed by…”, “I appreciate him trying his best. I do worry about…”). Almost none of the movable messages contain the sympathy-for-Trump note that runs so heavily through the decided group; they do not see him as a victim.
There is also a difference in emotional temperature. Definite Republicans are warm and occasionally reverent. Movable Republicans are impatient, blunt, and in a handful of cases openly hostile - a tone that appears essentially nowhere in the Definite group.
The following are the themes and sample quotes each group gives.
Affirmation rather than instruction. They thank Trump for effort and sacrifice and urge him to continue on the current path without changing direction.
Trump is cast as a figure absorbing abuse on the country’s behalf, and the message is an apology or consolation for the treatment he receives.
The Iran conflict should be brought to a fast, forceful conclusion rather than negotiated. Talk and delay are the objection; the use of force is not.
Investigation without punishment is treated as failure. The message calls for indictments, convictions, and removals of officials, judges, and bureaucrats.
Criticism of Trump’s manner is offered to protect him - the argument is that his own words hand ammunition to opponents, not that the words are disqualifying.
Trump’s presidency is framed as divinely appointed, and the message takes the form of a blessing or a promise of prayer.
The complaint is the gap between announcement and result. Self-promotion, bragging, and commentary are treated as substitutes for governing.
Economic pain is the standard by which the presidency is judged, and other priorities are treated as distractions from it.
American resources and American policy are seen as captured by foreign interests, with Israel named most often. The demand is disentanglement.
Iran draws heat from opposite directions: some want overwhelming force immediately, others want out entirely. What unites them is intolerance of an open-ended, half-committed posture.
Support is described as transactional and contingent - the message reminds Trump of an agenda he was hired to execute and of the voters who hired him.
Enforcement actions are expected to run through courts and warrants. The concern is procedure, not the underlying goal.
A distinct slice has stopped addressing Trump as their president at all, expressing exhaustion, contempt, or a wish for him to go.
Not all of this group is critical. A meaningful minority sounds indistinguishable from the Definite Republicans - brief, warm, and religiously framed.
In the campaigns Democrats have waged against Donald Trump, there has been a sharp tension between attacking Trump for his character and criticizing his plans and performance. Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris struggled to campaign against his agenda because it was so slippery. While Trump’s allies published “Project 2025” – which detailed a lot of what he would try to accomplish in his second term – Trump disavowed it during the campaign. Joe Biden had more success running against Trump’s performance when the country was in the middle of a pandemic at the time of the 2020 election.
Movable Republicans’ frustrations with Trump’s performance in office present an opportunity for Democrats in the final weeks of the 2026 campaign. The Iran War, continued inflation, the enrichment of himself and his family, the weakening of child vaccine schedules, and policies that have created chaos are dividing his coalition and changing the way Movable Republicans think and talk about him. Democrats need to dramatically increase the pressure on Republicans running this fall.
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