Florida, Florida, Florida

To: Interested Parties

From July 9-11, 2026, Change Research surveyed 1,348 registered voters of which 1,004 say they are likely to vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election. The survey was conducted for Freedom Project USA, which was founded to educate and defend the values that have made America the envy of the world: freedom, hard work, and entrepreneurial spirit. Our third in a series of statewide polls shows a 12-point Republican advantage in party registration (45% Republican, 33% Democrat, 19% No-Party Affiliation, 2% minor parties) and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

Florida Governor’s Race Polling: 3 Big Takeaways

David Jolly leads Bryon Donalds by 6 points (46% to 40%) with likely voters.
David Jolly’s challenge is getting better known. Only 45% of likely voters, “have heard or read about David Jolly.” Jolly is benefiting from a very motivated Democrat electorate, a deep dislike of Donalds among a slice of Republicans, and NPA voters wanting change centered around the cost of living.
The Republican primary: Despite over $20 million spent on advertising and Trump’s much-hyped endorsement, Bryon Donalds is at 38%, with Collins 16%, Fishback 12%, Renner 3%, and Not Sure 27%. This closely mirrors the Collins’ primary poll from last week.
Cost of living is driving the electorate: 61% of voters say they are falling behind the cost of living - 67% of NPA’s and 49% of Republicans.
Likely voters: 68% are stressed about food/grocery costs, 66% are stressed about the cost of homeowners’ insurance, 66% are stressed about utility costs, 66% are stressed about the cost of gas.

The more Florida voters know about the candidates, the more they favor Jolly: Jolly extends his lead over Donalds to 9 points (48% 39%) when voters are read the following campaign messages and shown these two photos.

“David Jolly, a Democrat, is a former Member of Congress and attorney. David Jolly’s work in Congress to clean up political corruption was featured on “60 Minutes.” The Tampa Bay Times called Jolly a “truth teller.” David believes everyone deserves a shot at work, wages, and wealth, and that their rights should be protected and their dignity celebrated. David has focused his campaign on historic groundbreaking homeowner’s insurance reform, the expansion of primary healthcare services, and investing in more community public schools.”

“Byron Donalds, a Republican, is a current Member of Congress and is endorsed by President Donald Trump. Donalds is endorsed by dozens of county sheriffs who say they trust him to make Florida safe. He has stood in the trenches against the rise of woke culture in schools, corporate America, the financial services industry, and our military, and will continue fighting the woke left in Florida.”

Unlike the data centers, gambling operations, utility companies, and Tallahassee lobbying industry, Florida voters are Not Buying Byron. (Keep in mind that Donalds has already spent over $20 million on advertising and has a nonstop hype machine)

Only 19% of likely voters and 15% of likely Republican voters “have not seen, heard, or read anything about Byron Donalds.” Note: 54% of voters have seen Donalds’ television ads.
Yet, Donalds’ favorable rating is only 25%. Donalds’ unfavorable rating is 40%.
31% of likely voters approve of the job Bryon Donalds is doing in Congress
20% of Republican voters view Donalds as “very unfavorable.”
Red Flag: 63% of “not Donalds” Republican primary voters have an unfavorable view of Donalds. 88% of these same voters view Governor DeSantis favorably.
69% of NPA voters and 36% of Republicans have serious doubts about Donalds when they learn, “Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor has raised over $90 million. Some highlights include $9 million from Wall Street and private equity interests, $7.5 million from one individual who wants to end public education, $5 million from AI data center builders, $4 million from gambling interests, $1.5 million from private prison builders, and millions more from Tallahassee lobbyists.”

Byron Donalds’ problems are unique to Byron Donalds. Not Republicans overall:

Governor Ron DeSantis’ job approval with likely voters is 52%.
President Donald Trump’s job approval with likely voters is 48%
Attorney General’s race of likely voters: Uthmeier 43%, Rodríguez 43%.

Florida voters have serious doubts about Byron Donalds when they connect the dots that the money Byron Donalds is raising is driving up their cost of living or abusing their tax dollars.

68% of NPAs and 41% of Republicans have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor has taken over $9 million from Wall Street and private equity interests. Donalds just voted against a bi-partisan bill in Congress that would lower construction costs and ban corporate/private equity funds from buying up single family homes.”
70% of NPAs and 38% of Republicans have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor took over $1.6 million from Florida utility companies in the same year that Florida passed the largest rate increase in United States history.”
75% of NPAs and 45% of Republicans have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor has been backed by $5 million from artificial intelligence (AI) data center builders. Donalds sponsored a bill to make these data centers tax exempt and has campaigned for building data centers throughout Florida.”
66% of NPAs have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor has taken $7.5 million from one individual who supports privatizing education and dismantling the public education system. Donalds’ wife Erika is a prominent charter school business owner who would profit off the closing of public schools.”
65% of NPAs have serious doubts when they learn,” Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor has taken over $1.5 million from private prison builders. One facility called “Alligator Alcatraz” cost Florida taxpayers over $600 million and recently closed. Donalds attended that red carpet opening ceremony.”

Only 31% of likely voters approve of the job Bryon Donalds is doing in Congress:

71% of NPAs and 44% of Republicans have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds says he’s against members of Congress trading stocks but traded over $10,000,000 in stock across hundreds of transactions, including on companies he oversees in Congress. He also hid $1,600,000 in stock trades over just a two-year period.”
69% NPAs and 27% of Republicans have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds praised the racially segregated Jim Crow era of 60 to 100 years ago saying it was better for black people even though black Americans were barred from voting and legally discriminated against for jobs and housing.”
65% of NPAs have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds fully supports Trump’s war on Iran despite it costing taxpayers $100,000,000,000, dramatically increased gas and energy prices, and leaving 13 US service members dead.”
61% of NPAs and 31% of Republicans have serious doubts when they learn, “Byron Donalds introduced a bill in Congress that mandates individuals who commit a crime that are ages 18 to 24 be sentenced as adults rather than more flexible sentences. However, as a young adult, Donalds sold drugs and passed bad checks and received no jail time and got his record expunged.”

With a month before Florida’s primary day and just over 100 days until the general election what does the data indicate:

Despite overwhelming force, Bryon Donalds has not knitted up the Republican primary. Donalds has deep problems within the Republican electorate, and his numerous negatives put him in a very vulnerable position headed into the general election. However, if his primary opponents cannot raise the resources to counter Donalds’ paid effort, the Trump endorsement will put him over the top.
David Jolly’s challenge is getting better known. Only 45% of likely voters, “have heard or read about David Jolly.” Jolly is benefiting from a very motivated Democrat electorate, a deep dislike of Donalds among a big slice of Republicans, and NPA voters wanting change centered around the cost of living.
A fall campaign between Jolly and Donalds gives Florida voters a real choice. Currently, Jolly is bucking trends and running ahead of a Democratic baseline with strong backing of NPAs (with room to grow) and a healthy slice of pro-Desantis, anti-Donalds voters. Byron Donalds has a unique set of challenges already demonstrated in his inability to grow his vote share either in his own Primary or against Jolly.

Bottom line: Will Jolly have the resources to define himself and the stakes of the election or will the 30 years of Republican control over Tallahassee and their money prevail?

You can see a full methodology statement here, which complies with the requirements of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative. Members of the Transparency Initiative disclose all relevant details about our research, with the principle that the public should be able to evaluate and understand research-based findings, in order to instill and restore public confidence in survey results. View the memo.

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