Memo: Texas Republican runoff

To: Interested Parties

From: Change Research

Date: March 19, 2026

Re: Survey Results

The following summarizes key findings from a survey of 807 potential Texas Republican runoff voters interviewed from March 17-19, 2026:

• Ken Paxton holds a small 42% to 39% edge in the runoff election for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate. Less than a fifth (19%) say they are undecided or indicate they would not vote in this contest. Paxton leads with Republicans who identify as strong Republicans, MAGA Republicans, Independents who lean Republican, voters under 65, non college graduates, evangelical Christians, and voters in Houston, small metros, and in rural areas. Cornyn leads with Republicans who don’t identify strongly with the party, non MAGA Republicans, voters over 65, college graduates, non evangelical Christians, and those in the Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas. Paxton holds on to 92% of those who voted for him on March 3rd and leads 46% to 33% with Wesley Hunt’s voters. Cornyn only holds on to 83% of his voters. He has a small lead with those who did not vote in the March primary.

	Paxton	Cornyn	Und	Leader
All Voters	42	39	16	+3 Paxton
Strong Republican	48	36	14	+12 Paxton
Not Strong Republican	27	49	23	+22 Cornyn
Independent/Lean Republican	47	32	14	+15 Paxton
MAGA Republican	54	35	12	+19 Paxton
Not MAGA Republican	22	51	23	+29 Cornyn
Not Sure MAGA	34	41	23	+7 Cornyn
March Paxton Voter	92	3	5	+89 Paxton
March Cornyn Voter	6	83	11	+77 Cornyn
March Hunt Voter	49	31	16	+18 Paxton
Not a March Voter	26	31	33	+5 Cornyn
18-49	42	29	19	+13 Paxton
50-64	48	38	12	+10 Paxton
65+	40	43	16	+6 Cornyn
Women	40	38	19	+2 Paxton
Men	45	40	12	+5 Paxton
Non College Graduate	45	35	17	+10 Paxton
College Graduate	40	43	14	+3 Cornyn
Dallas - Ft. Worth	38	46	13	+8 Cornyn
Houston	43	36	18	+7 Paxton
Austin-San Antonio	36	50	12	+14 Cornyn
Other Metro	46	31	18	+15 Paxton
Non Metro	48	34	16	+14 Paxton
Evangelical	48	36	14	+12 Paxton
Non Evangelical	35	43	17	+8 Cornyn

• President Donald Trump’s endorsement can play a more significant role for Paxton than for Cornyn. Paxton leads 50% to 40% if Trump endorses him. Cornyn leads 44% to 41% if Trump endorses him, but does not reach 50% and he still trails with Wesley Hunt voters.

	All Voters	Paxton	Cornyn	Hunt	Did Not Vote
Initial Vote
Paxton	42	92	6	49	26
Cornyn	39	3	83	31	31
Not sure	16	5	11	16	33
Would Not Vote	3	0	1	4	10
Net Paxton	+3	+89	-77	+18	-5
Trump Endorses Paxton
Paxton	50	96	11	56	42
Cornyn	40	2	81	33	34
Not sure	8	2	7	10	17
Would Not Vote	1	0	1	1	7
Net Paxton	+10	+94	-70	+23	+8
Trump Endorses Cornyn
Paxton	41	85	4	46	30
Cornyn	44	10	86	35	37
Not sure	12	4	10	16	23
Would Not Vote	3	0	1	2	10
Net Paxton	-3	+75	-82	+11	-7

• Ken Paxton is more popular than John Cornyn. Half (49%) view Paxton favorably while just 30% have an unfavorable one. Voters split on Cornyn - 40% are favorable towards him while 39% are unfavorable. More than half (52%) of Wesley Hunt voters view Cornyn unfavorably compared to just 22% who are favorable towards him. Non March primary voters are split (30% favorable, 35% neutral, 29% unfavorable). 
• Republican runoff voters select immigration (52%), affordability (43%), and election integrity (40%) as the top issues in this election. March Paxton voters focus more on immigration (63%) and election integrity (59%) than affordability (36%). Wesley Hunt voters prioritize issues similarly to Paxton’s (50% immigration, 48% election integrity, 39% affordability). Cornyn voters care more about immigration (53%) and affordability (46%) than election integrity (33%).

Methodology: Polling was conducted online from March 17-19, 2026. Using Dynamic Online Sampling and text messaging to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 811 voters in Texas who say they could vote in the May Republican primary runoff election. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and March primary vote. The final results have a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.