The following summarizes key findings from a survey of 807 potential Texas Republican runoff voters interviewed from March 17-19, 2026:
Ken Paxton holds a small 42% to 39% edge in the runoff election for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate. Less than a fifth (19%) say they are undecided or indicate they would not vote in this contest. Paxton leads with Republicans who identify as strong Republicans, MAGA Republicans, Independents who lean Republican, voters under 65, non college graduates, evangelical Christians, and voters in Houston, small metros, and in rural areas. Cornyn leads with Republicans who don’t identify strongly with the party, non MAGA Republicans, voters over 65, college graduates, non evangelical Christians, and those in the Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas. Paxton holds on to 92% of those who voted for him on March 3rd and leads 46% to 33% with Wesley Hunt’s voters. Cornyn only holds on to 83% of his voters. He has a small lead with those who did not vote in the March primary.
Paxton
Cornyn
Und
Leader
All Voters
42
39
16
+3 Paxton
Strong Republican
48
36
14
+12 Paxton
Not Strong Republican
27
49
23
+22 Cornyn
Independent/Lean Republican
47
32
14
+15 Paxton
MAGA Republican
54
35
12
+19 Paxton
Not MAGA Republican
22
51
23
+29 Cornyn
Not Sure MAGA
34
41
23
+7 Cornyn
March Paxton Voter
92
3
5
+89 Paxton
March Cornyn Voter
6
83
11
+77 Cornyn
March Hunt Voter
49
31
16
+18 Paxton
Not a March Voter
26
31
33
+5 Cornyn
18-49
42
29
19
+13 Paxton
50-64
48
38
12
+10 Paxton
65+
40
43
16
+6 Cornyn
Women
40
38
19
+2 Paxton
Men
45
40
12
+5 Paxton
Non College Graduate
45
35
17
+10 Paxton
College Graduate
40
43
14
+3 Cornyn
Dallas - Ft. Worth
38
46
13
+8 Cornyn
Houston
43
36
18
+7 Paxton
Austin-San Antonio
36
50
12
+14 Cornyn
Other Metro
46
31
18
+15 Paxton
Non Metro
48
34
16
+14 Paxton
Evangelical
48
36
14
+12 Paxton
Non Evangelical
35
43
17
+8 Cornyn
President Donald Trump’s endorsement can play a more significant role for Paxton than for Cornyn. Paxton leads 50% to 40% if Trump endorses him. Cornyn leads 44% to 41% if Trump endorses him, but does not reach 50% and he still trails with Wesley Hunt voters.
All Voters
Paxton
Cornyn
Hunt
Did Not Vote
Initial Vote
Paxton
42
92
6
49
26
Cornyn
39
3
83
31
31
Not sure
16
5
11
16
33
Would Not Vote
3
0
1
4
10
Net Paxton
+3
+89
-77
+18
-5
Trump Endorses Paxton
Paxton
50
96
11
56
42
Cornyn
40
2
81
33
34
Not sure
8
2
7
10
17
Would Not Vote
1
0
1
1
7
Net Paxton
+10
+94
-70
+23
+8
Trump Endorses Cornyn
Paxton
41
85
4
46
30
Cornyn
44
10
86
35
37
Not sure
12
4
10
16
23
Would Not Vote
3
0
1
2
10
Net Paxton
-3
+75
-82
+11
-7
Ken Paxton is more popular than John Cornyn. Half (49%) view Paxton favorably while just 30% have an unfavorable one. Voters split on Cornyn - 40% are favorable towards him while 39% are unfavorable. More than half (52%) of Wesley Hunt voters view Cornyn unfavorably compared to just 22% who are favorable towards him. Non March primary voters are split (30% favorable, 35% neutral, 29% unfavorable).
Republican runoff voters select immigration (52%), affordability (43%), and election integrity (40%) as the top issues in this election. March Paxton voters focus more on immigration (63%) and election integrity (59%) than affordability (36%). Wesley Hunt voters prioritize issues similarly to Paxton’s (50% immigration, 48% election integrity, 39% affordability). Cornyn voters care more about immigration (53%) and affordability (46%) than election integrity (33%).
Methodology:Polling was conducted online from March 17-19, 2026. Using Dynamic Online Sampling and text messaging to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 811 voters in Texas who say they could vote in the May Republican primary runoff election. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and March primary vote. The final results have a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
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