From May 13 to May 16, Change Research surveyed 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 say they will likely vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election.
Here are our findings:
- 70% of Floridians say they are falling behind the cost of living. 65% do not think Florida is affordable for them or their family.
- Democrats’ vote motivation is 13 points higher than Republicans (88% to 75%), which explains the recent special election wins for Democrats, as well as a Democrat being elected Mayor of Miami by 19 points, the first in 30 years.
- David Jolly leads Byron Donalds 46% to 42% with registered voters who say they will likely vote. Jolly is consolidating Democrats and leads the all-important Florida NPA by 18 points (46% to 28%) with apparent room to grow. Byron Donalds lags Donald Trump’s performance with Hispanics by 10 points, with only 30% of Puerto Ricans and 50% of Cubans currently supporting him.
Read the full analysis here: