June 15th, 2026
To: Freedom Project USA
From: Stephen Clermont, Change Research
Re: Deep Dive into Florida
Over the past month, there have been several significant events in Florida politics. The Florida legislature passed a new set of congressional maps and a property tax ballot initiative. Mayor Jerry Demings, a Democrat from Orlando, ended his Governor run due to prostate cancer. David Jolly selected former Congresswoman Gwen Graham as his running mate, and candidate qualifying ended so Campaign 2026 is set.
From June 11 to June 14, Change Research surveyed 1,273 registered voters of which 1,015 say they are likely vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election. Freedom Project USA was founded to educate and defend the values that have made America the envy of the world: freedom, hard work, and entrepreneurial spirit. Our second in a series of statewide polls shows a 12-point Republican advantage in party registration (46% Republican, 34% Democrat, 17% No Party Affiliation, 2% minor parties) and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Lay of the Land:
- President Trump job approval is 47%, disapprove 53%.
- Governor Ron DeSantis job approval is 51%, disapprove 48%.
- 29% are satisfied with the direction of the country (66% not satisfied).
- 44% are satisfied with the direction of Florida (52% not satisfied).
- 40% are satisfied with the direction of Florida’s economy (53% not satisfied).
- 66% say their income is falling behind the cost of living. (74% of NPAs)
- Democratic Party has a 31% favorable rating (55% unfavorable).
- Republican Party has a 41% favorable rating (50% unfavorable).
- MAGA has a 37% favorable rating (52% unfavorable).
- Property Tax Ballot: 62% yes, 27% no, 10% not sure.
- S. Senate: Ashley Moody 46%. Alex Vindman 43% – with likely voters tied at 46%.
Governor’s Campaign: Given that neither David Jolly nor Byron Donalds are well known to Florida voters, the survey asked voters to consider the following short messages and contained a photo of both candidates. It should be noted that Byron Donalds has been on television with ads that reflect the Donalds message below. Jolly has yet to be on television; however, the message below is on the Jolly website. When shown the messages below:
Jolly leads Donalds 47% to 42%. With “likely” voters, Jolly leads Donalds 49% to 43%.
- “David Jolly, a Democrat, is a former Member of Congress and attorney. David Jolly’s work in Congress to clean up political corruption was featured on “60 Minutes.” The Tampa Bay Times called Jolly a “truth teller.” David believes everyone deserves a shot at work, wages, and wealth, and that their rights should be protected and their dignity celebrated. David has focused his campaign on historic groundbreaking homeowner’s insurance reform, the expansion of primary healthcare services, and investing in more community public schools.”
- “Byron Donalds, a Republican, is a current Member of Congress and is endorsed by President Donald Trump. Donalds is endorsed by dozens of county sheriffs who say they trust him to make Florida safe. He has stood in the trenches against the rise of woke culture in schools, corporate America, the financial services industry, and our military, and will continue fighting the woke left in Florida.”
A closer look:
- Jolly is locking up Democrats with 94% of their vote. 53% of NPA prefer Jolly and 9% of Republicans.
- Donalds support with Republicans is at 77%, and he is at 28% with NPA voters.
- With Gwen Graham on Jolly’s ticket, Jolly-Graham hit 50% with “likely” voters (50% to 43%).
Byron Donalds has long been considered the frontrunner for Governor. So why is Donalds struggling despite his huge resource advantage, Trump’s very vocal backing, and millions spent on television to date? The survey asked several probing questions about Donalds’s record. These questions were asked after the short messages BUT were NOT part of the results reported above.
- 72% of voters have serious doubts about Byron Donalds when they learn “Byron Donalds is a strong supporter of building artificial intelligence (AI) data centers throughout Florida. AI political action committees have given Donalds over $5,000,000 for his governor’s campaign so far.” These serious doubts include 54% of Republican voters and 73% of NPA voters.
- 70% of voters have serious doubts about Byron Donalds when they learn “Byron Donalds says he’s against members of Congress trading stocks but traded over $10,000,000 in stock across hundreds of transactions, including on companies he oversees in Congress. He also hid $1,600,000 in stock trades over just a two-year period.” These serious doubts include 50% of Republican voters and 76% of NPA voters.
- 63% of voters have serious doubts about Byron Donalds when they learn, “Byron Donalds praised the racially segregated Jim Crow era of 60 to 100 years ago saying it was better for black people even though black Americans were barred from voting and legally discriminated against for jobs and housing.” These serious doubts include 37% of Republican voters and 69% of NPA voters.
In summary:
The Republican property tax ballot initiative is popular with voters. Governor Ron DeSantis is more popular than Trump – even among Florida Republicans. Voters are unhappy with the direction of the country and Florida’s economy. Over two-thirds of voters are falling behind the cost of living.
Regarding the Florida Governor’s race: Despite the hype, Byron Donalds has real vulnerabilities other than his resource advantage. It is becoming clear that David Jolly has consolidated Democrats and is gaining strength with NPA voters putting his campaign in a very competitive place headed into the summer.
You can see a full methodology statement here, which complies with the requirements of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative. Members of the Transparency Initiative disclose all relevant details about our research, with the principle that the public should be able to evaluate and understand research-based findings, in order to instill and restore public confidence in survey results. View the memo.