O’Rourke and Biden Lead Democratic Primary in Texas


O’Rourke and Biden Lead Democratic Primary in Texas 

Beto O’Rourke leads Joe Biden by three points in his home state in Change Research’s latest Texas poll. Read on for additional results, including horse race breakdown by gender and race. 

O’Rourke and Biden Lead in Texas

O’Rourke (27%) has a three-point lead over Biden (24%) among likely Democratic primary voters in Texas. Bernie Sanders takes third place with 13%, followed by Elizabeth Warren (12%), Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg (8%), and Stacey Abrams and Julian Castro (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

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Women voters’ support is concentrated between O’Rourke and Biden, at 32% and 26% respectively, while men voters split their support more evenly between O’Rourke (20%), Biden (19%), and Sanders (18%). 

Key Takeaways

  • O’Rourke (27%) and Biden (24%) lead the Democratic nomination race in Texas

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O’Rourke maintains his lead among black and Latinx voters, while white voters prefer Biden. Sanders takes third among black and Latinx voters, and Warren jumps to third among white voters. 

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Texas Issues: Sales Tax, Tobacco, Drawing Boundaries

The majority of Texan voters support a proposal to increase sales tax by 1% to lower property taxes. 54% support such a proposal, while 34% oppose it. These results are roughly consistent across partisan lines: supporters of an increased sales tax include 51% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 53% of Independents. 

A stronger majority of Texan voters support raising the age of tobacco purchase from 18 to 21 years old. 62% of registered voters support increasing the age of purchase, while 31% oppose doing so. This issue is also regarded roughly consistently among voters of all parties: 69% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans, and 61% of Independents support raising the age to 21. 

Survey respondents were also asked whether they support establishing an independent commission to draw the boundaries for congressional and state legislative districts after the 2020 Census, instead of the state legislature drawing the boundaries. The majority, 53%, of Texans support this proposal; however, a full 31% say they are not sure of their opinion on this issue. Democrats most strongly support an independent commission, with 70% indicating they prefer that boundary-drawing arrangement; 54% of Independents agree. Republicans are less sure: 38% support an independent commission, while 25% oppose it and 37% are not sure.

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Change Research surveyed 2,887 registered voters in Texas (1,218 likely 2020 Democratic primary voters and 1,368 likely 2020 Republican primary voters) from May 30-June 3, 2019. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error for the full sample, as traditionally calculated, is ± 1.8%.