By Stephen Clermont, Head of Polling
President Trump has long teased the idea of “working something out” to seek a third term, or finding a “loophole” that would enable this. We are not lawyers, but the text of the 22nd Amendment, ratified on February 27th, 1951, seems straightforward:
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.”
When a federal judge halted construction on the White House ballroom project, the President remarked that the build might not be finished in time for him to use it much. His comments point to January 20th, 2029 as the deadline he has in mind. Still, we asked voters what a world without that deadline might look like.
There’s another blocker: if the 22nd amendment disappeared tomorrow, there’s a good chance that former President Barack Obama would become a 2028 candidate as well. In our April Compass Poll, fielded from April 3-7, 2026, we asked who people would support if there was no 22nd Amendment. Obama leads 48% to 39%.
Obama makes gains from Kamala Harris with every group in the electorate. The biggest movement away from Trump to Obama includes Independents, non-MAGA Republicans, young voters, white voters, Hispanic voters, AAPI voters, and women who have not graduated from college.
All of this is, of course, hypothetical and very unlikely. Still, it is worth noting that Donald Trump once hired an actor to play Barack Obama so he could “fire” him. The takeaway is clear: in a one-on-one matchup against Obama, Trump would likely lose decisively.
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