Challenge: The Just Trust needed to understand how North Carolina voters viewed criminal justice reform amid changing political leadership and evolving policy debates. Key questions included whether public support remained stable over time, how specific policy proposals performed, and whether demographic coalitions were shifting. The organization required actionable data to inform advocacy strategies and policy priorities.

Approach: Change Research fielded two robust surveys of North Carolina registered voters (n=1,151 in December 2023; n=841 in January 2025) using dynamic online sampling with post-stratification weighting. The surveys measured overall support for criminal justice reform, detailed policy preferences, and demographic breakdowns. Identical question wording enabled precise tracking of opinion changes over time, while new questions explored emerging issues like driver’s license revocation policies.

Impact: The research revealed remarkable stability in overall support for criminal justice reform (67% in both surveys) while uncovering important shifts in specific areas. The data showed growing recognition of reform’s importance (from 78% to 81% saying it’s somewhat or very important) and identified policies with strong bipartisan appeal. The findings enabled The Just Trust to focus advocacy efforts on high-support policies like record expungement (67% support) and informed timing strategies around more contentious proposals.

Challenge: Rural communities of color in North Carolina have historically been underrepresented in statewide polling and political research. The New Rural Project needed to understand why voter turnout among people of color had declined in key rural counties like Anson, Hoke, Moore, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland, and Union. These communities face unique challenges including economic hardship, limited job opportunities, rising crime and drug addiction, and skepticism toward both political parties. Traditional polling methods often fail to reach these voters effectively, creating a critical knowledge gap about their priorities and what motivates them to participate in elections.

Approach: We designed a comprehensive multi-phase research program that prioritized listening to these communities in their own words. Our qualitative phase included focus groups with Black non-voters and in-depth interviews with Lumbee and Latinx voters. This informed a quantitative survey of 538 registered voters of color across the target counties, with careful attention to reaching low-frequency voters through targeted online ads and SMS outreach. We created a three-point vote frequency classification system to understand differences between high-frequency, occasional, and low-frequency voters, then tested motivational messaging frameworks to identify what resonates most effectively with each group.

Impact: The research revealed critical insights that shaped the New Rural Project’s engagement strategy. We found that 76% of voters of color agree that “Democrats make promises but leave communities behind,” highlighting the trust deficit both parties face. The most salient issues were inflation, housing costs, and crime – not traditional Democratic priority messaging. Crucially, we identified that messages emphasizing local community power and pride were most motivating, especially for low-frequency voters. The research led directly to the organization’s “My Voice, My Vote, My Power, My Community” campaign and informed their shift toward hyperlocal engagement, candidate conversations in accessible venues like barbershops, and targeted social media outreach – the primary news source for 59% of low-frequency voters.