Biden, Warren, and Sanders lead the Democratic Caucus in Nevada

The Nevada Independent/Change Research
Nevada Poll: August 2-8, 2019

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Key Takeaways: 

  • Joe Biden (26%), Elizabeth Warren (23%), and Bernie Sanders (22%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Nevada 

  • Biden leads among 35-49 and 50-64 year-old likely caucus-goers. Sanders leads among 18-24 year-olds (54%), and Warren narrowly leads among caucus-goers older than 65 with 30%.

  • Biden (30%) has an 8-point lead among Latinx caucus-goers in Nevada. The race is closer among white caucus-goers, with Warren leading at 27%.

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[TOPLINES] Change Research __ Nevada Pol

Sample and Methodology

Sample and Methodology _ Nevada 8_2-8_8

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Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in Nevada

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary in Nevada with 26%, followed by Elizabeth Warren (23%) and Bernie Sanders (22%). They are followed by Kamala Harris (10%), Pete Buttigieg (7%), Tom Steyer (3%), and Beto O’Rourke (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less. 

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Sanders has a 39-point lead among 18-34 year-old likely caucus-goers in Nevada, with 54%. Biden has the most support among 35-49 and 50-54 year-olds, with 31% and 30%, respectively. Warren has a one-point lead among caucus-goers over 65 with 30%; Biden follows at 29%. 

[TRENDS] Change Research __ Nevada.pdf

Trends

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Biden leads the race among Latinx caucus-goers, polling at 30%, an 8-point lead over Sanders (22%) and Harris (22%). The race is closer among white caucus-goers; Warren has the highest support with 27%, followed by Sanders with 24%. 

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Change Research surveyed 439 self-identified likely Democratic caucus-goers. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 4.7% for the full sample. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, and 2016 caucus and presidential vote.