PollerCoaster 2020: Dems are Up by 1 Point Against Trump in Arizona

Crooked Media/Change Research Arizona Poll: September 27-28, 2019

Key Takeaways:

  • The generic Democrat is up 47-46. However, if the 2020 election were to occur today, 42% of voters say they would definitely vote for Trump while 37% say they would definitely vote for the Democratic candidate.
  • Elizabeth Warren (35%), Bernie Sanders (19%), and Joe Biden (15%) lead the Democratic primary in Arizona.

Crooked Media, the progressive media company behind Pod Save America, and Change Research, the modern, data science-driven approach to public opinion research, are teaming up to offer unprecedented insight about Democratic voters through the 2020 election cycle.

This Arizona poll is part of our PollerCoaster 2020 series. Additional polls curated by the Crooked Media team and conducted by Change Research will be released leading up to the 2020 election.

For complete results and analysis, click here.

Democrat Poised To Make Gains With Those Who Did Not Vote in 2016

If the 2020 Presidential election were today, 46% of voters in Arizona would likely cast their vote for Donald Trump; 42% would “definitely” vote for him. 47% of voters in Arizona would likely vote for the Democratic candidate with 37% of them “definitely” voting for the Democrat. 

Those who voted for Hillary Clinton and those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 plan to stick with the same party at similar levels: 93% of Clinton voters plan to vote for the Democrat, while 95% of Trump voters say they’ll vote for him again (though Clinton voters’ support is weaker — 18% say they’ll only “probably” vote for the Democrat, while 6% of Trump voters say the same about him). Where the Democrat has made up ground is among those who did not vote in 2016: these voters say they’ll vote for the Democrat by an overwhelming 69-16 margin. Another 4% of these voters plan to support a third party candidate, while 11% don’t plan to vote in 2020.

Among the 4% of Arizonans who voted for Gary Johnson in 2016, 24% say they are likely to vote for Donald Trump, 25% say they are likely to vote for a Democrat, and the remainder say they are likely to vote for another third party candidate or are undecided.

Warren, Sanders, and Biden lead the Democratic primary in Arizona

Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary in Arizona with 35%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (19%), Joe Biden (15%), Pete Buttigieg (13%), Andrew Yang (8%), Kamala Harris (4%), and Beto O’Rourke (3%).  All other candidates poll at 1% or less. ​

Change Research surveyed 856 registered voters plus newly eligible voters who indicate a high likelihood of registering by 2020, including 396 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona, from September 27-28, 2019. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ± 3.3% for the full sample. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, 2016 presidential vote, and self-reported social media usage.