By Stephen Clermont, Head of Polling
A Change Research survey of 967 North Carolinians, conducted July 29 through August 1, 2026 (see here for topline results and here for the methodology), asked respondents an open-ended question: “If you could send a message to Donald Trump, what would it be?” The answers from Republican respondents reveal a coalition that is holding together in most places, and straining in a few.
Last week, former US representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia shared a picture on X taken at podcaster Tucker Carlson’s cabin in Maine. At the table along with them were Representative Thomas Massie and Joe Kent, the former head of the US National Counterterrorism Center.
“We said no more foreign wars and we meant it and supported Donald Trump because he made that promise,” Greene wrote. “But he’s betrayed us all. Our commitment is America First for all Americans, right, left, and center. The movement has begun.”
That frustration, it turns out, extends to Republican voters in North Carolina.
We looked at two groups. “Definite Republicans” support the Republican for the North Carolina legislature, approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, and hold a favorable or neutral view of the Republican Party. “Movable Republicans” are undecided for the North Carolina legislature, somewhat disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing, or hold unfavorable views of both parties.
Seventy-nine percent of Republicans are “Definite” and 20% are “Movable.” Given that Trump only won the state by 3.2 points, Republican candidates can afford few defections this year if they want to hold on to power in Congress and the state legislature. Only 40% of voters overall approve of the job the president is doing – 11 points lower than the share of the vote he received two years ago. Among Republicans, while 88% approve of the job he is doing, only a bare majority (54%) strongly approve.
In examining the Republican respondents, we found a significant disparity between the messages that Definite Republicans and Movable Republicans would send to the President..
Definite Republicans write as supporters addressing someone on their own team. Their pronouns are inclusive of him – “we love you,” “we have your back,” “we are behind you.” Where they criticize, they soften it with an apology, a compliment, or a rationale for why the change would help him. The dominant grammatical mood is encouragement: continue, don’t stop, stay strong. Even harsh policy demands arrive wrapped in warmth.
Movable Republicans write as constituents addressing a contractor who is behind schedule. Their pronouns separate him from them – “work for us,” “do what we asked you to do,” “are we not worth it.” Their messages are longer, more conditional, and far more likely to contain a pivot word: but, yet, stop, why. Praise, when it appears, is frequently qualified rather than freestanding (“All the positives you’re doing are being seriously outweighed by…”, “I appreciate him trying his best. I do worry about…”). Almost none of the movable messages contain the sympathy-for-Trump note that runs so heavily through the decided group; they do not see him as a victim.
There is also a difference in emotional temperature. Definite Republicans are warm and occasionally reverent. Movable Republicans are impatient, blunt, and in a handful of cases openly hostile – a tone that appears essentially nowhere in the Definite group.
The following are the themes and sample quotes each group gives.
Definite Republicans
Gratitude and Encouragement
Affirmation rather than instruction. They thank Trump for effort and sacrifice and urge him to continue on the current path without changing direction.
- “Keep up the good work. Keep putting Americans first”
- “Thank you for loving America and protecting us.”
- “Stand strong!! Keep up the good work!! We love you, pray for you and thank you for your love & service to America!”
- “Keep going! SAVE our country.”
Sympathy for What He Endures
Trump is cast as a figure absorbing abuse on the country’s behalf, and the message is an apology or consolation for the treatment he receives.
- “Thank you and I’m sorry you are treated so horribly by the democrats.”
- “I’m sorry you are disrespected by so many, but I respect you and believe in you!”
- “Thank you for everything you are doing. I am so sorry for all the hatred you get every day.”
- “Chin up buttercup…. better days coming!!!!”
Finish Iran Decisively
The Iran conflict should be brought to a fast, forceful conclusion rather than negotiated. Talk and delay are the objection; the use of force is not.
- “Get the war against Iran finished soon. Talk less, do more.”
- “Don’t waste your time negotiating with Iran, Islamic Deception is a part of their war plan.”
- “Finish the war, or come back home. You cannot negotiate with Iran.”
- “Get the damn Iran thing done already. Stop assuming everyone lives or dies on the stock market, the majority of Americans are only affected by high cost of living.”
Prosecute the Enemy Within
Investigation without punishment is treated as failure. The message calls for indictments, convictions, and removals of officials, judges, and bureaucrats.
- “Heads need to roll. Nobody cares if you expose corruption or expose fraudulent spending in the government, if nobody pays for those crimes”
- “ITS TIME TO PROSICUTE. RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES AND PROSECUTE. SEX TRAFFICKERS, GRAFTERS, RINOS, FRAUDSTERS.”
- “Push the DOJ to do their job and hand out real punishment to those in elected positions that allow or participate in corruption.”
- “Keep going and drain the swamp”
Message Discipline as Friendly Advice
Criticism of Trump’s manner is offered to protect him – the argument is that his own words hand ammunition to opponents, not that the words are disqualifying.
- “Please stop talking, you give the idiots things to throw at you.”
- “Please try to act more Presidential/diplomatic. Those who support you LOVE your strength and your humor, but those who don’t are emboldened by your sometimes inappropriate remarks and/or posts on social media.”
- “I’m not a fan of your personality, but I am a big fan of your policy.”
- “You’re a great man, and Patriot but check your ego/pride.”
Faith and Providence
Trump’s presidency is framed as divinely appointed, and the message takes the form of a blessing or a promise of prayer.
- “God Bless you, Sir! Keep America moving forward!”
- “Thank you and I pray for you every day!”
- “I am praying for God to give him wisdom, peace, and vision.”
- “Thank you for your relationship with Jesus to guide you in using your wisdom for America.”
Movable Republicans
Perform Less, Deliver More
The complaint is the gap between announcement and result. Self-promotion, bragging, and commentary are treated as substitutes for governing.
- “Stop grandstanding and just do your job. Lose the ego and just work for us.”
- “Keep going on Iran but stop all the self promotion and bragging and lying.”
- “Don’t say what you’re going to do just do it”
- “Don’t give us your opinion on every aspect of life”
The Kitchen Table Is the Test. Trump Is Failing It
Economic pain is the standard by which the presidency is judged, and other priorities are treated as distractions from it.
- “FOCUS ON KITCHEN TABLE ISSUES! We don’t care about Wall Street when we’re struggling to put food on our tables and make mortgage payments.”
- “Hey we’re trying to survive here but I can’t we afford anything we need to take care of our families. Are we not worth it”
- “WE ARE STRUGGLING TO EXIST IN OUR OWN NATION.”
- “Focus on economic recovery, not on personal gripes with political opponents. You’re already term-limited and have a limited amount of time to implement a legislative agenda.”
Stop Serving Other Countries
American resources and American policy are seen as captured by foreign interests, with Israel named most often. The demand is disentanglement.
- “Fulfill your promises to your voters and kick Israeli influence in our government”
- “Stop letting Israel own us”
- “Stop funding and fighting for other countries”
- “Arrest Netanyahu”
End Iran Now – Impatience Cutting Both Ways
Iran draws heat from opposite directions: some want overwhelming force immediately, others want out entirely. What unites them is intolerance of an open-ended, half-committed posture.
- “Get it over with. Destroy Iran and get over.”
- “Finish up Iran and quit the talk of we can level it in 15 minutes and then twiddle your finger… Shock, awe, and destruction is the only way to get rid of a wasps nest.”
- “Blow Iran of the damn map and be done with them”
- “All the positives you’re doing are being seriously outweighed by foolish things, like senseless wars, destroying the trust our allies had”
Honor the Deal You Made
Support is described as transactional and contingent – the message reminds Trump of an agenda he was hired to execute and of the voters who hired him.
- “Think about what your values were when you started and the people that got you elected and do what we asked you to do.”
- “Govern the same way you did during your first term!”
- “Who bought you? Things are different this second term.”
- “Get us back on track”
Constitutional Limits and Due Process
Enforcement actions are expected to run through courts and warrants. The concern is procedure, not the underlying goal.
- “FOLLOW THE CONSTITUTION. Get judicial warrants before arrests, with specific names. Provide due process in front of a judge. Remember everyone is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.”
- “Protect our God given freedoms, and make it a treasonous offense for any elected official to go against the constitution.”
- “Prosecute all the corrupt government officials… Make sure all in government live by the same laws the rest of its citizens are supposed to obey.”
- “Tone down the rhetoric and work closer with both parties”
Outright Rupture
A distinct slice has stopped addressing Trump as their president at all, expressing exhaustion, contempt, or a wish for him to go.
- “Resign, and let VP Vance have a try.”
- “Why? Just why?”
- “8647”
- “Calm down and please play nice. It’s a good thing that you’re so assertive, but sometimes you have to play to the other guys’s hand.”
A Loyal Remnant
Not all of this group is critical. A meaningful minority sounds indistinguishable from the Definite Republicans – brief, warm, and religiously framed.
- “Thank you President Trump! I truly believe you have been selected and blessed by god. We may still lose our freedoms, but not without a fight.”
- “Great job, keep up the good work!”
- “I’m praying hard for you.”
- “Keep doing what you’re doing.”
In the campaigns Democrats have waged against Donald Trump, there has been a sharp tension between attacking Trump for his character and criticizing his plans and performance. Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris struggled to campaign against his agenda because it was so slippery. While Trump’s allies published “Project 2025” – which detailed a lot of what he would try to accomplish in his second term – Trump disavowed it during the campaign. Joe Biden had more success running against Trump’s performance when the country was in the middle of a pandemic at the time of the 2020 election.
Movable Republicans’ frustrations with Trump’s performance in office present an opportunity for Democrats in the final weeks of the 2026 campaign. The Iran War, continued inflation, the enrichment of himself and his family, the weakening of child vaccine schedules, and policies that have created chaos are dividing his coalition and changing the way Movable Republicans think and talk about him. Democrats need to dramatically increase the pressure on Republicans running this fall.