Recent polling from Change Research shows Democrats are competitive in two districts, Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District and New York’s 17th Congressional District, that will be critical in determining the House majority in 2026.
In Iowa’s 3rd District, which backed Donald Trump by a small margin in 2024, a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 45-42 and Donald Trump’s overall approval and approval on the economy are both under water.
A similar story emerges in New York’s 17th District, a district that narrowly backed Kamala Harris last year. A generic Democrat and generic Republican are tied at 44 and, here too, Trump is underwater on overall and economic approval.
Biographical information of Democratic candidates for each seat (Sarah Trone Garriott and Jennifer Konfrst in Iowa’s 3rd District and Cait Conley and Beth Davidson in New York’s 17th District) and the Republican incumbents (Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd District and Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District) were shown to voters.
In Iowa’s 3rd District, both candidates lead Zach Nunn, though Sarah Trone Garriott has a wider lead. In New York’s 17th District, Lawler has a 47-42 lead on Davidson, but trails Conely 47-42.
For more information about each poll, you can find the toplines for Iowa’s 3rd District and New York’s 17th District here.