Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead
the Democratic Primary in New Jersey
Change Research New Jersey Poll: August 16-20, 2019
Key Takeaways:
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Joe Biden (26%), Elizabeth Warren (23%), and Bernie Sanders (21%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic voters in New Jersey.
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Biden has a 42-point lead among black primary voters with 55%. Warren leads among white voters with 29%, followed by Biden 22%.
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Sanders leads among 18-34 and 35-49 year-old voters and Biden leads among 50-64 year-old and 65 and older voters. The race is closest among 35-49 year-old voters: Sanders (24%) has a one-point lead over Warren (23%).
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US Senator from New Jersey and previous mayor of Newark, Cory Booker, has 5% of support among voters in his home state.
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Change Research surveyed 1,176 likely primary voters in New Jersey, including 635 likely Democratic primary voters on questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings – inquire about purchasing the full poll.
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an executive summary
Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in New Jersey
Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary in New Jersey with 26%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (23%) and Bernie Sanders (21%). Pete Buttigieg (12%), Kamala Harris (8%), Cory Booker (5%), and Beto O’Rourke (2%) follow. All other candidates poll at 1% or less.
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Sample and Methodology
[TOPLINES] Change Research __ New JerseySample and Methodology _ New Jersey 8_16
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Sanders leads among 18-34 and 35-49 year-old voters in New Jersey. He has a 27-point lead among 18-34 year-olds, with 44%, followed by Warren (17%). Among 35-49 year-olds, Sanders has the most support with 24%, closely followed by Warren with 23%. Biden leads among 50-64 year-olds and voters older than 65 with 32% and 36% respectively; Warren follows Biden with 26% among each group.
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Biden holds a 42-point lead among black Democratic primary voters in New Jersey with 55%, followed by Sanders (13%) and Harris (11%). The race is closer among white voters; Warren has the most support with 29%, 7-points ahead of Biden (22%).
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Change Research surveyed 1,176 likely primary voters, including 635 self-identified Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 2.9% for the full sample and ±3.9% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.