Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary Nationwide
Change Research National Poll: August 23-26, 2019
Key Takeaways:
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Elizabeth Warren (29%), Bernie Sanders (22%), and Joe Biden (19%) lead among Democratic primary voters nationally.
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Biden has a 15-point lead among black voters with 35%, while Warren leads among white voters (32%), and Latinx voters (28%).
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Sanders leads among 35-49 year-old voters and Biden leads among 65 and older voters. The race is closest among 18-34 year-old voters: Sanders is tied with Warren at 30%.
Change Research surveyed 1,695 likely general election voters nationally, including 874 likely Democratic primary voters on questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings – inquire about purchasing the full poll.
Warren, Sanders, Biden Lead the Democratic Primary Nationwide
Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary nationwide with 29%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (22%) and Joe Biden (19%). Pete Buttigieg (9%), Kamala Harris (6%), Cory Booker (3%), and Beto O’Rourke (3%) follow. All other candidates poll at 2% or less.
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[TOPLINES] Change Research __ National PSample and Methodology _ National 8_23-8
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Biden leads among black Democratic primary voters with 35%, followed by Warren (20%) and Sanders (12%). Warren has the most support among white voters, at 32%, followed by Sanders (24%) and Biden (16%).
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Sanders and Warren lead with 30% each among 18-34 year-old voters nationally, followed by Biden at 9%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Sanders leads with 35%, 10-points ahead of Warren and 23-points ahead of Biden. Warren and Biden are closest among 50-64 year old voters, with Warren at 33% of the vote, and Biden with 29%. The only age group in which Biden leads is among voters older than 65, with 33% of the vote, followed by Warren with 26%.
Straying from the Herd
These results differ from other public polls, further indication that Change Research is not afraid to stray from the herd.
In addition to weighting and/or cross-referencing our results with typical demographic and political variables (age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, 2016 vote), we’ve also cross-referenced with 2020 ActBlue donors. You’d naturally expect, for instance, that we’d be about as likely to poll the average Joe Biden donor as the average Elizabeth Warren donor.
In fact, we’ve been slightly more likely to poll the Biden donor than the donors of other candidates — indicating that if anything we may be overestimating his support.
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Change Research surveyed 1,695 likely general election voters, including 874 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 2.4% for the full sample and ±3.3% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.