Ahead of the Democratic Debates, Biden Leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sanders Leads in New Hampshire

Ahead of the Democratic Debates, Biden Leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sanders Leads in New Hampshire

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Crooked Media/Change Research Pre-Debate Poll: June 17-20, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Biden leads the Democratic primary in Iowa and South Carolina, while Sanders leads narrowly in New Hampshire

Crooked Media, the progressive media company behind Pod Save America, and Change Research, the modern, data science-driven approach to public opinion research, are teaming up to offer unprecedented insight about Democratic voters through the 2020 election cycle.

This pre-debate poll kicks off Crooked Media and Change Research’s “PollerCoaster 2020” collaboration. A post-debate poll will follow, and ten additional polls curated by the Crooked Media team and conducted by Change Research will be released over the coming year.

Biden Leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sanders Leads in New Hampshire

When the sample from Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire is combined, Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary horse race at 29% over Bernie Sanders’ 20%. Elizabeth Warren sits in third at 19%, followed by Pete Buttigieg (14%), Kamala Harris (5%), and Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke (3%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less. 

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Limited Poll Info

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Sample and Methodology _ Crooked_Change

Sample and Methodology _ Crooked_Change

In Iowa, Biden leads with 27% followed by Warren (20%), Sanders (18%), and Buttigieg (17%). Biden has an even larger lead in South Carolina, polling at 39% followed by Warren (15%), Sanders (13%), and Buttigieg (11%). In New Hampshire, Sanders is ahead with 28%, followed by Biden (24%), Warren (21%), and Buttigieg (14%). All other candidates in each of the three states poll in the single digits. 

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Democratic horse race results broken down by age (aggregated across Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire) are similar to much of Change Research’s recent polling, showing Sanders ahead among younger voters and Biden ahead among older voters. In this poll, 18-34 year olds prefer Sanders at 30%, followed by Buttigieg at 19% and Biden and Warren tied at 17%. Biden and Sanders are tied at 29% among the 35-49 year old age group, followed by Warren (16%) and Buttigieg (10%). Biden leads 50-64 year olds with 33%, a 14 point lead over Warren’s 19%, and he has a 13 point lead with 35% to Warren’s 22% among voters over 65. 

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Biden has a strong lead among voters who aren’t following the Democratic primary closely at all or aren’t following too closely, polling at 42% and 41% respectively in those two groups. The race is closer among those who are following the primary somewhat or very closely. In the “following somewhat closely” group, Biden leads narrowly with 22% over Sanders’ 21%, and in the “following very closely” group, he leads with 26% followed by Warren at 23%.  

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Change Research surveyed 935 likely Democratic primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina from June 17-20, 2019. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ± 3.1%.