Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary in California Following Debate

Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary in California Following Debate


Change Research California Poll: September 12-15, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Elizabeth Warren (25%), Bernie Sanders (23%), and Joe Biden (18%) lead among Democratic primary voters in California after the September Democratic primary debate.

  • Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters, Warren leads among 35-49 and 50-64 year old voters, and Biden and Warren are tied among voters 65 years and older. 

  • Harris (27%) has a 3-point lead over Biden (24%) among black voters, while Sanders (35%) has a 17-point lead over Warren (18%) and Biden (18%) among Latinx voters.

  • US Senator from California and former California Attorney General Kamala Harris has 11% of support in her home state.

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Change Research surveyed 5,335 likely general election voters in California, including 3,325 likely Democratic primary voters, after the third Democratic primary debates. The survey covered questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings – inquire about purchasing the full poll

Warren, Sanders, Biden Lead the Democratic Primary in California

Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary with 25%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (23%), Joe Biden (18%), Kamala Harris (11%), Pete Buttigieg (10%), Andrew Yang (3%), Beto O’Rourke (2%), Tulsi Gabbard (2%), and Cory Booker (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

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Sample and Methodology

[TOPLINES] Change Research __ CaliforniaSample and Methodology _ California 9_12

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Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters in California with 45% of the vote, followed by Warren with 18% and Harris and Yang, both with 8%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Warren leads with 28%, followed by Sanders (23%) and Harris (14%). Support for Sanders significantly drops among voters 50 years and older. Warren (26%) leads Biden (25%) by 1-point among voters 50-64 years old, while Warren and Biden are tied among voters 65 years and older, each with 29%.


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Kamala Harris leads among black voters with 27%, followed by Biden (24%), and Warren (21%). Asian voters support Biden (22%), followed by Warren (21%), Sanders (18%), and Yang (14%). Among Latinx voters, Sanders leads both Warren and Biden by 17-points with 35%. Warren leads white voters with 31%, followed by Sanders (19%), and Biden (16%).

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Change Research surveyed 5,335 likely general election voters in California, including 3,325 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 1.3% for the full sample and ±1.7% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.