Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary in California Following Debate

Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary in California Following Debate


Change Research California Poll: October 15-October 18, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Elizabeth Warren (28%), Bernie Sanders (24%), and Joe Biden (19%) lead among Democratic primary voters in California after the October Democratic primary debate.

  • Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters and 35-49 year-old voters; Warren leads among 50-64 year old voters and 65 years and older voters.

  • Biden (30%) has a 10-point lead over Sanders (20%) among black voters, while Warren has a strong lead among white voters with 34%, followed by Sanders (21%) and Biden (16%).

  • US Senator from California and former California Attorney General Kamala Harris has 8% of support in her home state.

Change Research surveyed 2,605 likely general election voters in California, including 1,631 likely Democratic primary voters, after the fourth Democratic primary debates. The survey covered questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings – inquire about purchasing the full poll.

Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in California

Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary with 28%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (24%), Joe Biden (19%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), Kamala Harris (8%), Andrew Yang (3%), Tulsi Gabbard (2%), and Amy Klobuchar (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

PNG CaliforniaHorserace.png

Elizabeth Warren is also leading among second choice candidates with 28%, followed by Sanders (15%), Biden (14%), and Harris (11%). When respondents were asked about other candidates they are still actively considering after first and second choices, Harris ranks highest with 28%, followed by Buttigieg (25%) and Sanders (22%). 

PNG California first_second choice.pngSample and Methodology _ California 10_1

Sample and Methodology

Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 5.20.32 PM.png

Look beyond the horse race:

purchase polls from our frequent polling series.

Every poll includes: 

  • full crosstabs

  • an open-ended question analysis powered by Change Research’s natural language processing technology

  • an executive summary

Purchase a Poll

Limited Poll Info


_[TOPLINES] Change Research __ Californi

Full crosstabs and more available for purchase. Learn more here

Media Contact

[email protected]


[TRENDS] Change Research __ California –

Breakdown by Age

Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters in California with 47% of the vote, followed by Warren with 21%, and Yang with 9%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Sanders leads with 29%, followed by Warren (23%) and Biden (17%). Warren leads Biden by 8-points among voters 50-64 years old, and by 7-points among voters 65 years and older.

PNG California age.png

Breakdown by Race

Joe Biden leads among black voters with 30%, followed by Sanders (20%), and Harris (16%). Asian voters support Sanders (30%), followed by Warren (28%), and Yang (17%). Among Latinx voters, Sanders leads both Warren and Biden by 6-points with 28%. Warren leads white voters with 34%, followed by Sanders (21%), and Biden (16%).

PNG California race.png


Change Research has polled the Democratic horse race in California five times since April. Warren has continued to rise in California, while Biden has stayed relatively steady, with a slight increase, since July. California Senator Kamala Harris has dropped 15 points since July.

PNG California trends.png

2020 Change

Change Research’s 2020 Change polling series is offering candidates and causes an opportunity to access deeper insights for a strategic advantage.

2020 Change is a series of individual polls and aggregate polling memos. 

The polls cover local issues far beyond the Democratic nomination, providing actionable insights for those working on ballot measures, issue advocacy campaigns, down-ballot races, or other legislative initiatives. 

You can buy a single poll, a series of polls from a specific state (e.g., California polls only), or choose the combination that’s right for you. Purchase a poll or series of polls to gain access to surveys of large samples of Democratic primary voters across demographic groups and areas of the United States.

Learn more about purchasing polls.

Change Research surveyed 2,605 likely general election voters in California. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 1.9% for the full sample. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.