Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary in California Following Debate
Change Research California Poll: October 15-October 18, 2019
Key Takeaways:
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Elizabeth Warren (28%), Bernie Sanders (24%), and Joe Biden (19%) lead among Democratic primary voters in California after the October Democratic primary debate.
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Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters and 35-49 year-old voters; Warren leads among 50-64 year old voters and 65 years and older voters.
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Biden (30%) has a 10-point lead over Sanders (20%) among black voters, while Warren has a strong lead among white voters with 34%, followed by Sanders (21%) and Biden (16%).
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US Senator from California and former California Attorney General Kamala Harris has 8% of support in her home state.
Change Research surveyed 2,605 likely general election voters in California, including 1,631 likely Democratic primary voters, after the fourth Democratic primary debates. The survey covered questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings – inquire about purchasing the full poll.
Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in California
Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary with 28%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (24%), Joe Biden (19%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), Kamala Harris (8%), Andrew Yang (3%), Tulsi Gabbard (2%), and Amy Klobuchar (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.
Elizabeth Warren is also leading among second choice candidates with 28%, followed by Sanders (15%), Biden (14%), and Harris (11%). When respondents were asked about other candidates they are still actively considering after first and second choices, Harris ranks highest with 28%, followed by Buttigieg (25%) and Sanders (22%).
Sample and Methodology _ California 10_1
Sample and Methodology
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Trends
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Breakdown by Age
Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters in California with 47% of the vote, followed by Warren with 21%, and Yang with 9%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Sanders leads with 29%, followed by Warren (23%) and Biden (17%). Warren leads Biden by 8-points among voters 50-64 years old, and by 7-points among voters 65 years and older.
Breakdown by Race
Joe Biden leads among black voters with 30%, followed by Sanders (20%), and Harris (16%). Asian voters support Sanders (30%), followed by Warren (28%), and Yang (17%). Among Latinx voters, Sanders leads both Warren and Biden by 6-points with 28%. Warren leads white voters with 34%, followed by Sanders (21%), and Biden (16%).
Trends
Change Research has polled the Democratic horse race in California five times since April. Warren has continued to rise in California, while Biden has stayed relatively steady, with a slight increase, since July. California Senator Kamala Harris has dropped 15 points since July.
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Change Research surveyed 2,605 likely general election voters in California. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 1.9% for the full sample. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.