Challenge: Ohio AFL-CIO needed to assess the effectiveness of their “Union Strong” communications program during the August 2023 special election on Issue 1. With an abbreviated campaign timeline focused on base turnout, the union required rapid evaluation of their messaging impact and recall among members.

Approach: Change Research conducted an online survey of 721 recipients of the communications program between August 21-25, 2023. The study sampled from a universe of 489,080 union members, retirees, and household members using targeted recruitment and post-stratification on key demographics.

Impact: The research demonstrated exceptional effectiveness, with 74% of respondents recalling union communications and 56% reporting that messages influenced their vote. The findings validated the union’s base-focused strategy and revealed that personal communication methods significantly outperformed mass media, providing actionable insights for prioritizing direct voter contact in future campaigns.

Challenge: Red Wine and Blue needed to understand voter sentiment across Ohio’s Governor, U.S. Senate, and Supreme Court races during a volatile election cycle, particularly regarding how abortion access issues were affecting electoral dynamics in a traditionally red state.

Approach: Change Research conducted a comprehensive statewide poll of 1,209 likely voters from September 2-7, 2022, using its Dynamic Online Sampling Engine with targeted social media advertising and SMS messaging. The study employed post-stratification weighting across demographics and 2020 presidential vote to ensure representative results.

Impact: The research revealed that Tim Ryan led J.D. Vance by 5 points in the Senate race, while identifying critical vulnerabilities for Republican candidates on abortion issues. The polling showed that 62% of voters had serious doubts about Vance due to his statements about women, rising to 73% among suburban women. Most significantly, the study found that 48% of voters planned to support candidates protecting abortion rights versus only 18% favoring further restrictions, providing Red Wine and Blue with strategic insights for mobilizing suburban women as a decisive voting bloc.

Challenge: Louise Valentine, the Democratic candidate for Ohio House District 61, faced a significant uphill battle against Republican incumbent Beth Lear. Despite running in a competitive district, Valentine trailed by 22 percentage points (30% to 52%) in initial polling, primarily due to low name recognition among likely voters (37% compared to Lear’s 61%).

Approach: Change Research conducted a comprehensive pre-election poll of 407 likely voters in September-October 2022, utilizing their Dynamic Online Sampling Engine and post-stratification weighting. The research tested candidate favorability, issue priorities, and message effectiveness through a three-phase ballot progression: initial candidate preferences, post-biography responses, and post-messaging results to evaluate potential campaign strategies.

Impact: The research revealed a clear path to victory for Valentine. Strategic messaging completely transformed the race dynamics, closing the 22-point deficit to a statistical tie (46% Valentine, 47% Lear). The study identified education funding and public safety as the most effective positive messages, while revealing that Lear’s positions on abortion rights and January 6th participation created significant vulnerabilities. The research demonstrated that targeted messaging could mobilize Democratic voter enthusiasm (90% extremely motivated) and win over crucial independent voters, providing Valentine’s campaign with actionable strategic recommendations for the final weeks before Election Day.