As we commemorate Black History Month, it’s imperative to address not just the storied past but also the lived realities and the hopes and frustrations of Black Americans today. With President Joe Biden seeing some erosion in his support among Black voters, Change Research examined open-ended responses from dozens of African Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but are not currently planning to support him this year, in order to understand their perspectives on the direction of the country and what Biden and Democrats might need to do to win their votes in 2024.
Change Research surveyed 3865 Black registered voters nationwide from Mar. 29-Jan. 22, 2024. Polling was conducted using Dynamic Online Sampling to attain a representative sample. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and 2020 presidential vote. Members of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative disclose all relevant details about our research, with the principle that the public should be able to evaluate and understand research-based findings, in order to instill and restore public confidence in survey results.
Evaluating Political Trust Among Black Voters
On every major issue of the day, Black voters trust Democrats more than Republicans. But on every issue, significant portions of the Black electorate trust neither party. This highlights the degree to which many Black voters’ allegiance to the Democratic Party is not unconditional, as well as the fact that Biden is not the only official who must work to earn African Americans’ vote – Democrats need to do so generally.
Most Pressing Issues
Among African Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but do not plan to vote for him in 2024, there are a broad range of issues that are incredibly pressing. The issues that come up most frequently include improving economic conditions for all Americans; the war in Gaza; crime and gun violence; housing affordability; and inequity.
Perceptions of the Direction of America
African Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but are not currently planning to vote for him feel universally negative about the current state of affairs in America. While some respondents point to individual issues – including dissatisfaction about America’s support for Israel’s killing of Palestinians, or about the economy – many are extremely unhappy about the country’s direction on a number of different fronts.
The Changes People Want to See
African Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but are not currently planning to vote for him generally want to see an America that is more equitable, more just, and where everyone has basic rights and has their basic needs met.
Democratic Party Positives: Empathy, Economics
Among African Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but are not currently planning to vote for him, what they prefer about the Democratic Party is their understanding of their struggles, economic and otherwise.
Republican Party Positives: Playing the Game
Black voters who voted for Biden in 2020 but don’t plan to in 2024 have few positive things to say about Republicans. Of those who did not say “Nothing,” some suggest that Republicans are better at playing cynical political games than Democrats; a few also mention Republicans’ support for the military or fiscal conservatism.
Democratic Party Negatives: “Wimpiness” and Broken Promises
African Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but do not plan to vote for him in 2024 are bothered by a Democratic Party that they see as weak, dishonest on the campaign trail, or indistinguishable from Republicans. Many brought up the last point, expressing a belief that Democrats do not help them or address the nation’s problems any better than Republicans.
Republican Party Negatives: Racial, Gender, and Socioeconomic Insensitivities
In contrast to these frustrations with Democrats, Black voters who have become skeptical of Biden are much more fundamentally opposed to Republicans and what they stand for. Many express disgust with Republicans’ attitudes on race and/or gender, and their support for corporations over working people.
These responses underscore the fact that most Black voters who have grown Biden-skeptical do still align much more with Democrats than Republicans: they believe that Democrats share their values and care more about people like them, and that Republicans do not. But they have lost faith in Democrats’ ability and desire to do the things they claim to believe in.
It follows that Joe Biden cannot win these voters over simply by making the right promises – which they’re inclined to distrust – or by warning of the dangers of Trump – which they’re already aware of. Instead, Biden would be well-advised to ensure that these voters are aware of what his administration has done to help their communities, and to listen carefully to what else they want and need from him in a second term. Biden could also acknowledge that, for many African Americans around the country, conditions have not improved quickly enough, and make it clear what he is going to do to help them, and how.