To: Interested Parties
From: Change Research
Date: March 19, 2026
Re: Survey Results
The following summarizes key findings from a survey of 807 potential Texas Republican runoff voters interviewed from March 17-19, 2026:
- Ken Paxton holds a small 42% to 39% edge in the runoff election for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate. Less than a fifth (19%) say they are undecided or indicate they would not vote in this contest. Paxton leads with Republicans who identify as strong Republicans, MAGA Republicans, Independents who lean Republican, voters under 65, non college graduates, evangelical Christians, and voters in Houston, small metros, and in rural areas. Cornyn leads with Republicans who don’t identify strongly with the party, non MAGA Republicans, voters over 65, college graduates, non evangelical Christians, and those in the Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas. Paxton holds on to 92% of those who voted for him on March 3rd and leads 46% to 33% with Wesley Hunt’s voters. Cornyn only holds on to 83% of his voters. He has a small lead with those who did not vote in the March primary.
| Paxton | Cornyn | Und | Leader | |
| All Voters | 42 | 39 | 16 | +3 Paxton |
| Strong Republican | 48 | 36 | 14 | +12 Paxton |
| Not Strong Republican | 27 | 49 | 23 | +22 Cornyn |
| Independent/Lean Republican | 47 | 32 | 14 | +15 Paxton |
| MAGA Republican | 54 | 35 | 12 | +19 Paxton |
| Not MAGA Republican | 22 | 51 | 23 | +29 Cornyn |
| Not Sure MAGA | 34 | 41 | 23 | +7 Cornyn |
| March Paxton Voter | 92 | 3 | 5 | +89 Paxton |
| March Cornyn Voter | 6 | 83 | 11 | +77 Cornyn |
| March Hunt Voter | 49 | 31 | 16 | +18 Paxton |
| Not a March Voter | 26 | 31 | 33 | +5 Cornyn |
| 18-49 | 42 | 29 | 19 | +13 Paxton |
| 50-64 | 48 | 38 | 12 | +10 Paxton |
| 65+ | 40 | 43 | 16 | +6 Cornyn |
| Women | 40 | 38 | 19 | +2 Paxton |
| Men | 45 | 40 | 12 | +5 Paxton |
| Non College Graduate | 45 | 35 | 17 | +10 Paxton |
| College Graduate | 40 | 43 | 14 | +3 Cornyn |
| Dallas – Ft. Worth | 38 | 46 | 13 | +8 Cornyn |
| Houston | 43 | 36 | 18 | +7 Paxton |
| Austin-San Antonio | 36 | 50 | 12 | +14 Cornyn |
| Other Metro | 46 | 31 | 18 | +15 Paxton |
| Non Metro | 48 | 34 | 16 | +14 Paxton |
| Evangelical | 48 | 36 | 14 | +12 Paxton |
| Non Evangelical | 35 | 43 | 17 | +8 Cornyn |
- President Donald Trump’s endorsement can play a more significant role for Paxton than for Cornyn. Paxton leads 50% to 40% if Trump endorses him. Cornyn leads 44% to 41% if Trump endorses him, but does not reach 50% and he still trails with Wesley Hunt voters.
| All Voters | Paxton | Cornyn | Hunt | Did Not Vote | |
| Initial Vote | |||||
| Paxton | 42 | 92 | 6 | 49 | 26 |
| Cornyn | 39 | 3 | 83 | 31 | 31 |
| Not sure | 16 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 33 |
| Would Not Vote | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| Net Paxton | +3 | +89 | -77 | +18 | -5 |
| Trump Endorses Paxton | |||||
| Paxton | 50 | 96 | 11 | 56 | 42 |
| Cornyn | 40 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 34 |
| Not sure | 8 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| Would Not Vote | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Net Paxton | +10 | +94 | -70 | +23 | +8 |
| Trump Endorses Cornyn | |||||
| Paxton | 41 | 85 | 4 | 46 | 30 |
| Cornyn | 44 | 10 | 86 | 35 | 37 |
| Not sure | 12 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 23 |
| Would Not Vote | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Net Paxton | -3 | +75 | -82 | +11 | -7 |
- Ken Paxton is more popular than John Cornyn. Half (49%) view Paxton favorably while just 30% have an unfavorable one. Voters split on Cornyn – 40% are favorable towards him while 39% are unfavorable. More than half (52%) of Wesley Hunt voters view Cornyn unfavorably compared to just 22% who are favorable towards him. Non March primary voters are split (30% favorable, 35% neutral, 29% unfavorable).
- Republican runoff voters select immigration (52%), affordability (43%), and election integrity (40%) as the top issues in this election. March Paxton voters focus more on immigration (63%) and election integrity (59%) than affordability (36%). Wesley Hunt voters prioritize issues similarly to Paxton’s (50% immigration, 48% election integrity, 39% affordability). Cornyn voters care more about immigration (53%) and affordability (46%) than election integrity (33%).
Methodology
Polling was conducted online from March 17-19, 2026. Using Dynamic Online Sampling and text messaging to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 811 voters in Texas who say they could vote in the May Republican primary runoff election. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and March primary vote. The final results have a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.