Battleground District Voters on Impeachment

Change Research Poll in 31 Trump-won, Democratic-held Congressional Districts: September 25-27, 2019

Change Research surveyed 1,094 likely voters in 31 Democratic-held House districts that Trump carried in 2016. The survey was conducted from September 25-27, after Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats opened formal impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump.

Key Takeaways: 

  • 63% of likely voters are very closely following the “news of the recent intelligence community whistleblower complaint about President Trump’s communications and actions concerning Ukraine.” 71% of Clinton voters are currently following this news very closely compared with 51% of Trump voters.
  • 45% of likely voters, including 85% of Democrats and 42% of independent voters, say “President Trump’s communications and actions concerning Ukraine” raise very serious concerns. (By comparison, just 36% of voters are very seriously concerned about “Joe Biden’s dealings with Ukraine while he was Vice President.”)
  • Almost half of voters consider the whistleblower complaint as serious (29%) or more serious (19%) than the Mueller report.
  • Voters in these Trump-won seats are evenly split on the impeachment issue: 49% support “opening an impeachment inquiry, while also working on other priorities,” including 43% who support it strongly. 49% also support “voting to impeach” the President at this time.
  • Already, 72% of the white college women who were so critical to Democrats’ gains in 2018 support impeachment, as do 48% of independents.
  • These voters were most concerned about the White House’s attempts to cover up the President’s actions with respect to Ukraine:
  • 53% were very concerned that “the White House moved records of the President’s conversation with the Ukrainian President to a separate highly classified computer server,” and 57% were at least somewhat concerned. 
  • 48% were very concerned “the White House withheld the complaint from Congress, violating the whistleblower law and going against the wishes of Trump’s Inspector General,” and 56% were at least somewhat concerned. 
  • The most concerning facts among Trump voters included the White House’s withholding of the complaint (34% had concerns) and the resignation of Trump’s DNI, deputy DNI, and National Security Advisor (38%).