METHODOLOGY Change Research surveyed 1,534 likely 2024 general election voters nationwide from February 6 - 8, 2024. We used the following sources to recruit respondents: * targeted advertisements on Facebook and Instagram (1,178 respondents) * text messages sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data (356 respondents) Regardless of which of these sources a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on SurveyMonkey’s website. Ads placed on social media targeted all adults in the United States. Anyone who indicated they were not registered to vote was terminated. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English. The survey was conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, CDC urbanicity, and 2020 presidential vote. Weighting parameters were based on the electorate of the 2020 November general election, obtained from the voter file. That is, if a given age bracket or gender group represented x% of the 2020 electorate, then that same group would be weighted to x% in this survey. The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 2.56%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting. * We adopt The Pew Research Center's convention for the term "modeled margin of error"(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys assuming a proportion estimate of 50%. ** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents, and is calculated using Kish's approximation (2). (1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/ (2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965. For more information, contact lauren@changeresearch.com. REPORTED QUESTIONS 1 *Are you: * Male * Female * Trans/Non-binary 2 *In what year were you born? [TEXT BOX] 3 *In what ZIP code do you currently live? [TEXT BOX] 4 *What is your race? * White / Caucasian * Hispanic or Latino/a * Black or African American * Asian / Pacific Islander * American Indian or Alaska Native * Other (please specify): [text box] 4a [IF Q4 ≠ Hispanic or Latino/a] Are you from a Hispanic, Latino/a or Spanish-speaking background? * Yes * No 5 *What is the highest level of education you have completed? * High school diploma or less * Some college, but no degree * Associate’s degree, or two-year college degree * Bachelor’s degree, or four-year college degree * Graduate degree 6 *Are you registered to vote? * Yes * No * Not sure 7 *Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a: [RANDOMIZE] * Democrat * Republican * Independent/Other 7b [IF IND/ NO PARTY AFFILIATION] *Do you consider yourself closer to: * The Democrats * The Republicans * Neither 7c [IF DEMOCRAT/ REPUBLICAN] *Do you consider yourself a: * Strong [Democrat/Republican] * Not so strong [Democrat/Republican] 8 *How did you vote in the 2020 election for President or for some reason were you unable to vote? * Joe Biden, the Democrat * Donald Trump, the Republican * Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian * Not registered/Too young/Ineligible * Did not vote 9 Will you vote in the November 5th, 2024 election for President and other state and local offices? * Yes, definitely * Yes, probably * Maybe 50/50 * No, probably not * No, definitely not 10 How motivated are you to vote in the November 5th, 2024 election on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you are not motivated at all and 10 means you are extremely motivated? * 0 - Not motivated at all * 1 * 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 * 7 * 8 * 9 * 10 - Extremely motivated 11 How favorable are your feelings about each of the following public officials and groups? [Very favorable | Somewhat favorable | Neutral | Somewhat unfavorable | Very unfavorable | Never heard of them] [RANDOMIZE] * Joe Biden * Donald Trump * The Democratic Party * The Republican Party * Kamala Harris * Nikki Haley 12 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President? * Strongly approve * Somewhat approve * Somewhat disapprove * Strongly disapprove * Not sure 13 If the election for President were held today and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for? [ROTATE] * Joe Biden, Democrat * Donald Trump, Republican * Not sure 14 If the election for President were held today and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for? [RANDOMIZE] * Joe Biden, Democrat * Donald Trump, Republican * Someone else (a 3rd party candidate) * Not sure – page break – [IF Q14=3RD PARTY] 15 How favorable are your feelings about each of the following public officials and groups? [Very favorable | Somewhat favorable | Neutral | Somewhat unfavorable | Very unfavorable | Never heard of them] [RANDOMIZE] * Cornel West * Robert F. Kennedy Jr. * Dean Philips * No Labels * Jill Stein Priorities Questions 16 If the 2024 election were held today, which of the following issues would be most important in deciding your vote? You can choose THREE. [RANDOMIZE] * Inflation and the rising costs of goods * Job opportunities where you live * The amount of taxes you pay * High cost of housing * High cost of healthcare and prescription drugs * Government corruption * Student loan debt * Gun violence and mass shootings * Restrictions on gun rights * Abortion restrictions/bans * Abortions being legal in too many places and circumstances * Climate change * The Israel/Palestine conflict * Crime and public safety * Illegal immigration and border security * Threats against the LGBTQ community * Mental health issues among kids and teens * Transgender issues becoming too mainstream too fast * People being too woke/wokeness * Parents rights to determine what their kids learn * The Russia/Ukraine war * Too much foreign aid being sent to other countries * Fighting racism and discrimination in America * Legalizing cannabis for recreational or medicinal use 17 How favorable are your feelings about each of the following people or teams? [Very favorable | Somewhat favorable | Neutral | Somewhat unfavorable | Very unfavorable | Never heard of them] [RANDOMIZE] * Taylor Swift 18 Are you a Swiftie? * Yes * No * What is that? 19 Who do you think would do a better job when it comes to the following, Taylor Swift or Donald Trump? [RANDOMIZE] [Taylor Swift | Donald Trump] * Managing the economy * Successfully managing a business * Serving as President of the United States * Managing international conflicts * Uniting the country * Being ethical and honest * Respecting the Constitution * Cooperating with Congress to get things done * Entertaining people * Representing America on the world stage © 2024 Change Research info@changeresearch.com | changeresearch.com