TO: RIFL Coalition
FROM: Melanie Phillips and Katie Drawdy, Change Research
RE: Voter support in downstate Illinois for RIFL Act
On behalf of the RIFL Coalition, Change Research polled 1,103 likely 2026 general election voters across 10 southern Illinois state Senate districts from April 25 to 30, 2026, to gauge opinions on the Responsibility in Firearm Legislation Act (the RIFL Act). The margin of error is ±3.1%.
Polling shows broad support for the RIFL Act, with 63% of voters in favor across all 10 state Senate districts surveyed. Southern Illinois is a meaningful test for this kind of legislation: the region is more rural, more conservative, and home to more gun owners than the state as a whole, so strong support here points to a higher political ceiling than skeptics might assume. State legislators who back the Act gain stronger electoral support, holding a 15-point advantage over those who vote against it. If the State Legislature passes the act, 52% of voters say they’d be more motivated to turn out to the election this fall, with the biggest gains among women, voters under 35, and Black voters, the same groups that show the strongest support for the Act. Just 5% say passage would make them less motivated to vote, making the bill a clear turnout asset rather than a liability.
A majority of voters support the RIFL Act
After reading plain ballot language, 63% of voters support the RIFL Act while 37% oppose it. The act’s support is intense: 41% of voters say they strongly support the RIFL Act. The act is popular across all state Senate districts: no district falls below majority support. Even gun owners are not a liability here (50% support). Majorities across all major demographic groups suggest that the legislature would be representing their voters’ interest in backing this act.
Backing the Act is an electoral asset
About 45% of voters say they’d be more likely to vote for their state legislator if that lawmaker helped pass the RIFL Act, while 30% say it would make them less likely. That’s a 15-point advantage for legislators who support the bill. The pattern holds across 8 of 10 state Senate districts, where supporters outnumber opponents by double digits. Two districts fall outside the pattern: SD-40 has a net -2, and SD-57 sits at +6.”
When asked whether backing the Act would factor into their vote, 43% of voters call it a major or minor reason to support a candidate, compared to 29% who’d hold it against one. That edge shows up in 9 of 10 districts.
Passing the RIFL Act is an asset to boost turnout
Passage is a turnout asset, not a liability. 52% of voters say it would make them more motivated to vote in November, while 35% say it wouldn’t affect their motivation either way. Nearly half of voters in every Senate district surveyed report higher motivation if the legislature passes the bill.
The turnout impact is concentrated among the Act’s strongest supporters. 48% of voters aged 18-34 and 53% of women, who back the Act at 74% and 75% respectively, say passage would make them more likely to turn out in November. Given the stakes this fall in Illinois, mobilizing these voters matters.
Understanding the Cohorts
The topline numbers are driven by specific groups of voters worth a closer look. Support, intensity, and turnout impact all cluster around the same demographics.
Women, voters aged 18-34, and Black voters are the Act’s strongest supporters. Nearly 8 in 10 voters in these groups support the Act, with majorities saying they strongly support it. Voters aged 65 and over are also on board: 6 in 10 find every core message for the Act somewhat or very convincing. These groups don’t just support the RIFL Act, they’re mobilized by it. Their backing carries over into higher motivation to turn out in November and to support legislators who vote for passage. Mobilizing voters under 35 and Black voters, who often turn out at lower rates, gives legislators another reason to back the bill.
Support for the Act fits a broader pattern of voters wanting major industries held accountable. 87% of voters say requiring oil companies to pay into environmental cleanup funds when spills occur is good policy. The same accountability logic appears to drive support for the RIFL Act.
Conclusion
Across all three measures, the polling points in the same direction. A clear majority of voters in southern Illinois back the RIFL Act, legislators who vote to pass it likely gain electoral ground, and passage could boost turnout among the voters most needed to mobilize this fall. The data makes the political case for action, not against it.