Latest Research - Change Research

North Carolina Republicans’ Growing Frustration with President Trump

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research survey of 967 North Carolinians, conducted July 29 through August 1, 2026 (see here for topline results and here for the methodology), asked respondents an open-ended question: “If you could send a message to Donald Trump, what would it be?” The answers from Republican respondents reveal a coalition that is holding together in most places, and straining in a few.

Last week, former US representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia shared a picture on X taken at podcaster Tucker Carlson’s cabin in Maine. At the table along with them were Representative Thomas Massie and Joe Kent, the former head of the US National Counterterrorism Center.

“We said no more foreign wars and we meant it and supported Donald Trump because he made that promise,” Greene wrote. “But he’s betrayed us all. Our commitment is America First for all Americans, right, left, and center. The movement has begun.”

That frustration, it turns out, extends to Republican voters in North Carolina.

We looked at two groups. “Definite Republicans” support the Republican for the North Carolina legislature, approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, and hold a favorable or neutral view of the Republican Party. “Movable Republicans” are undecided for the North Carolina legislature, somewhat disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing, or hold unfavorable views of both parties.

Seventy-nine percent of Republicans are “Definite” and 20% are “Movable.” Given that Trump only won the state by 3.2 points, Republican candidates can afford few defections this year if they want to hold on to power in Congress and the state legislature. Only 40% of voters overall approve of the job the president is doing - 11 points lower than the share of the vote he received two years ago. Among Republicans, while 88% approve of the job he is doing, only a bare majority (54%) strongly approve.

In examining the Republican respondents, we found a significant disparity between the messages that Definite Republicans and Movable Republicans would send to the President.

Definite Republicans write as supporters addressing someone on their own team. Their pronouns are inclusive of him - “we love you,” “we have your back,” “we are behind you.” Where they criticize, they soften it with an apology, a compliment, or a rationale for why the change would help him. The dominant grammatical mood is encouragement: continue, don’t stop, stay strong. Even harsh policy demands arrive wrapped in warmth.

Movable Republicans write as constituents addressing a contractor who is behind schedule. Their pronouns separate him from them - “work for us,” “do what we asked you to do,” “are we not worth it.” Their messages are longer, more conditional, and far more likely to contain a pivot word: but, yet, stop, why. Praise, when it appears, is frequently qualified rather than freestanding (“All the positives you’re doing are being seriously outweighed by…”, “I appreciate him trying his best. I do worry about…”). Almost none of the movable messages contain the sympathy-for-Trump note that runs so heavily through the decided group; they do not see him as a victim.

There is also a difference in emotional temperature. Definite Republicans are warm and occasionally reverent. Movable Republicans are impatient, blunt, and in a handful of cases openly hostile - a tone that appears essentially nowhere in the Definite group.

The following are the themes and sample quotes each group gives.

Definite Republicans

Gratitude and Encouragement

Affirmation rather than instruction. They thank Trump for effort and sacrifice and urge him to continue on the current path without changing direction.

“Keep up the good work. Keep putting Americans first”
“Thank you for loving America and protecting us.”
“Stand strong!! Keep up the good work!! We love you, pray for you and thank you for your love & service to America!”
“Keep going! SAVE our country.”

Sympathy for What He Endures

Trump is cast as a figure absorbing abuse on the country’s behalf, and the message is an apology or consolation for the treatment he receives.

“Thank you and I’m sorry you are treated so horribly by the democrats.”
“I’m sorry you are disrespected by so many, but I respect you and believe in you!”
“Thank you for everything you are doing. I am so sorry for all the hatred you get every day.”
“Chin up buttercup… better days coming!!!!”

Finish Iran Decisively

The Iran conflict should be brought to a fast, forceful conclusion rather than negotiated. Talk and delay are the objection; the use of force is not.

“Get the war against Iran finished soon. Talk less, do more.”
“Don’t waste your time negotiating with Iran, Islamic Deception is a part of their war plan.”
“Finish the war, or come back home. You cannot negotiate with Iran.”
“Get the damn Iran thing done already. Stop assuming everyone lives or dies on the stock market, the majority of Americans are only affected by high cost of living.”

Prosecute the Enemy Within

Investigation without punishment is treated as failure. The message calls for indictments, convictions, and removals of officials, judges, and bureaucrats.

“Heads need to roll. Nobody cares if you expose corruption or expose fraudulent spending in the government, if nobody pays for those crimes”
“ITS TIME TO PROSICUTE. RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES AND PROSECUTE. SEX TRAFFICKERS, GRAFTERS, RINOS, FRAUDSTERS.”
“Push the DOJ to do their job and hand out real punishment to those in elected positions that allow or participate in corruption.”
“Keep going and drain the swamp”

Message Discipline as Friendly Advice

Criticism of Trump’s manner is offered to protect him - the argument is that his own words hand ammunition to opponents, not that the words are disqualifying.

“Please stop talking, you give the idiots things to throw at you.”
“Please try to act more Presidential/diplomatic. Those who support you LOVE your strength and your humor, but those who don’t are emboldened by your sometimes inappropriate remarks and/or posts on social media.”
“I’m not a fan of your personality, but I am a big fan of your policy.”
“You’re a great man, and Patriot but check your ego/pride.”

Faith and Providence

Trump’s presidency is framed as divinely appointed, and the message takes the form of a blessing or a promise of prayer.

“God Bless you, Sir! Keep America moving forward!”
“Thank you and I pray for you every day!”
“I am praying for God to give him wisdom, peace, and vision.”
“Thank you for your relationship with Jesus to guide you in using your wisdom for America.”

Movable Republicans

Perform Less, Deliver More

The complaint is the gap between announcement and result. Self-promotion, bragging, and commentary are treated as substitutes for governing.

“Stop grandstanding and just do your job. Lose the ego and just work for us.”
“Keep going on Iran but stop all the self promotion and bragging and lying.”
“Don’t say what you’re going to do just do it”
“Don’t give us your opinion on every aspect of life”

The Kitchen Table Is the Test. Trump Is Failing It

Economic pain is the standard by which the presidency is judged, and other priorities are treated as distractions from it.

“FOCUS ON KITCHEN TABLE ISSUES! We don’t care about Wall Street when we’re struggling to put food on our tables and make mortgage payments.”
“Hey we’re trying to survive here but I can’t we afford anything we need to take care of our families. Are we not worth it”
“WE ARE STRUGGLING TO EXIST IN OUR OWN NATION.”
“Focus on economic recovery, not on personal gripes with political opponents. You’re already term-limited and have a limited amount of time to implement a legislative agenda.”

Stop Serving Other Countries

American resources and American policy are seen as captured by foreign interests, with Israel named most often. The demand is disentanglement.

“Fulfill your promises to your voters and kick Israeli influence in our government”
“Stop letting Israel own us”
“Stop funding and fighting for other countries”
“Arrest Netanyahu”

End Iran Now - Impatience Cutting Both Ways

Iran draws heat from opposite directions: some want overwhelming force immediately, others want out entirely. What unites them is intolerance of an open-ended, half-committed posture.

“Get it over with. Destroy Iran and get over.”
“Finish up Iran and quit the talk of we can level it in 15 minutes and then twiddle your finger… Shock, awe, and destruction is the only way to get rid of a wasps nest.”
“Blow Iran of the damn map and be done with them”
“All the positives you’re doing are being seriously outweighed by foolish things, like senseless wars, destroying the trust our allies had”

Honor the Deal You Made

Support is described as transactional and contingent - the message reminds Trump of an agenda he was hired to execute and of the voters who hired him.

“Think about what your values were when you started and the people that got you elected and do what we asked you to do.”
“Govern the same way you did during your first term!”
“Who bought you? Things are different this second term.”
“Get us back on track”

Constitutional Limits and Due Process

Enforcement actions are expected to run through courts and warrants. The concern is procedure, not the underlying goal.

“FOLLOW THE CONSTITUTION. Get judicial warrants before arrests, with specific names. Provide due process in front of a judge. Remember everyone is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.”
“Protect our God given freedoms, and make it a treasonous offense for any elected official to go against the constitution.”
“Prosecute all the corrupt government officials… Make sure all in government live by the same laws the rest of its citizens are supposed to obey.”
“Tone down the rhetoric and work closer with both parties”

Outright Rupture

A distinct slice has stopped addressing Trump as their president at all, expressing exhaustion, contempt, or a wish for him to go.

“Resign, and let VP Vance have a try.”
“Why? Just why?”
“8647”
“Calm down and please play nice. It’s a good thing that you’re so assertive, but sometimes you have to play to the other guys’s hand.”

A Loyal Remnant

Not all of this group is critical. A meaningful minority sounds indistinguishable from the Definite Republicans - brief, warm, and religiously framed.

“Thank you President Trump! I truly believe you have been selected and blessed by god. We may still lose our freedoms, but not without a fight.”
“Great job, keep up the good work!”
“I’m praying hard for you.”
“Keep doing what you’re doing.”

In the campaigns Democrats have waged against Donald Trump, there has been a sharp tension between attacking Trump for his character and criticizing his plans and performance. Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris struggled to campaign against his agenda because it was so slippery. While Trump’s allies published “Project 2025” – which detailed a lot of what he would try to accomplish in his second term – Trump disavowed it during the campaign. Joe Biden had more success running against Trump’s performance when the country was in the middle of a pandemic at the time of the 2020 election.

Movable Republicans’ frustrations with Trump’s performance in office present an opportunity for Democrats in the final weeks of the 2026 campaign. The Iran War, continued inflation, the enrichment of himself and his family, the weakening of child vaccine schedules, and policies that have created chaos are dividing his coalition and changing the way Movable Republicans think and talk about him. Democrats need to dramatically increase the pressure on Republicans running this fall.

Voters Back Age Limits for Government Officials

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,006 registered voters, conducted July 13–17, 2026, finds majority support for maximum age limits across four major government positions, as well as broad support for mandatory health and cognitive evaluations and a formal process for removing officials who become medically or cognitively unable to serve. The 119th Congress is the third oldest in U.S. history, with an average member age of 58.9 years. The U.S. Constitution sets minimum ages for elected federal office but no maximum.

Support for Age Limits

Majorities of voters support a maximum age limit for Congress (83%), the presidency (79%), state governors (80%), and Supreme Court justices (78%).

Support for an age limit spans party lines, with 89% of Democrats and 79% of independents in favor of a presidential cap, compared to 69% of Republicans. The partisan gap is widest on the Supreme Court, where 88% of Democrats support a maximum age limit for justices, compared to 67% of Republicans.

Preferred Maximum Age

Among voters who support a maximum age limit, the two most common preferences are age 70 (31%) and age 65 (30%), followed by 75 (21%). Just 10% say 80, and 2% say older than 80.

Among supporters of a limit, 39% of Democrats prefer a cap at 65, compared to 20% of Republicans. Among Republicans who support a limit, 24% say 75 and 17% say 80.

Health and Cognitive Evaluations

The survey finds that 86% of voters support requiring elected officials over a certain age to publicly release regular health and cognitive evaluations, with 65% strongly supporting the requirement. Just 9% oppose it.

Support is consistent across party: 90% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans, and 76% of independents are in favor. Among women 50 to 64, 94% support the requirement, the highest share of any gender-age group surveyed.

A Removal Process for Incapacitated Officials

The survey also finds that 87% of voters support creating a formal process to remove a member of Congress who becomes medically or cognitively unable to do the job. Currently, no such mechanism exists outside of a chamber vote to expel a member. Just 8% oppose creating one.

Support is consistent across party: 90% of Democrats, 85% of Republicans, and 82% of independents are in favor. Support increases with age, from 82% of voters 18 to 34 to 91% of voters 65 and older. Among women 65 and older, 94% support a removal process. Among men 35 to 49, 92% are in favor.

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 2,006 registered voters from July 13–17, 2026. The modeled margin of error is 2.3%.

80% Support Banning or Restricting Phones in Schools

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT

As more states move to ban or restrict student cell phone use in schools, a Change Research national survey of 2,006 registered voters, conducted July 13–17, 2026, finds 80% supportive of such policies. Views on AI tools in K-12 education are more varied, with support ranging from 12% to 63% for different uses of AI.

Cell Phones in Schools

Our survey finds that 80% of voters support policies that ban or restrict student cell phone use in schools, with 17% opposed. The backing is wide across party lines: 84% of Democrats and 91% of Republicans support restrictions or bans. Among all voters, 49% strongly support such policies.

Support is somewhat lower among younger voters: 68% of voters aged 18 to 34 back cell phone restrictions, compared to 80% overall.

AI in the Classroom

Voters are most supportive of AI tools that help students learn without completing work for them. Using AI to help students understand a topic is supported by 63% of voters, with 34% opposed. Democrats’ and Republicans’ attitiudes align closely on this use case, with 60% and 64% in favor, respectively.

Support for more active uses is lower. The survey finds that 56% support using AI to check grammar or fix mistakes in students’ own writing, with 41% opposed; 52% support students’ use of AI to study or review for a test, with 44% opposed; and 49% support using AI for brainstorming, with 45% opposed.

Using AI to write assignments or produce answers for students is where opposition is clearest: 85% of voters oppose it, with 12% in support. Democrats’ and Republicans’ views are similar:10% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans support student use of AI in writing assignments or answers for them.

Parent Concerns

Among the 24% of respondents with children in grades K-12 in their households, school safety is the most common concern, cited across party lines and age groups. Worries about violence and bullying appear by a wide margin in open-ended responses.

“Bullying, mass shootings, and sexual misconduct of staff.”

Hispanic/Latino Woman, 35-49, Independent lean Democrat

“I’m most concerned with mass shootings. I’m utterly terrified to send my kids to school.”

White Woman, 35-49, Independent

The cost of school supplies and clothing is among the most common practical concerns, followed by worries about curriculum content. Technology in the classroom, including AI tools and device dependence, also comes up frequently.

“The reliance on artificial intelligence and devices.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 35-49, Weak Democrat

Methodology Change Research conducted this survey of 2,006 registered voters from July 13–17, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.3%.

When Disaster Strikes, Voters More Confident in Local Community

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,006 registered voters, conducted July 13-17, 2026, finds that 65% of voters are confident in their local community’s ability to respond to a natural disaster or extreme weather event, while 55% say the same about their state government and 34% express confidence in the federal government.

Household Exposure to Extreme Weather

Twenty-two percent of voters reported that their household was personally affected by a natural disaster or extreme weather event in the past 12 months, including hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat, flooding, or severe winter storms. Reported exposure varies by region: 26% of voters in the Northeast and 25% in the Midwest said their household was affected, compared with 14% of voters in the West.

The Effects of Natural Disasters

Among voters who reported being affected by a natural disaster or extreme weather event, 64% cited a higher-than-normal utility bill, the most cited effect of any option we provided. A power outage was the second most cited response at 53%, followed by damage to a home or vehicle at 31%. About one in four cited a canceled or postponed event or trip, and about one in eight reported an illness or injury for themselves or someone they know. About 7% reported having to evacuate their home.

Confidence in Disaster Response

We asked about confidence in local communities and state and federal government in responding to a natural disaster. Local communities received the highest confidence ratings: 65% of voters said they are confident in their local community’s ability to respond to a disaster, including 21% who said they are very confident. State government confidence was lower, with 55% of voters expressing confidence. The federal government received the lowest rating: 34% of voters expressed confidence in its disaster preparedness, while 64% reported no confidence.

Views on federal preparedness vary significantly along party lines, with 63% of Republicans expressing confidence in the federal government’s readiness, compared with 20% of Pure Independents and 11% of Democrats. Regional variations were smaller: people in the West reported the lowest federal confidence of any region, with 31% expressing confidence, compared with 36% among respondents in the Midwest.

Local Government Support

In the survey, 52% of voters indicated they feel that local governments do not do enough to “help residents, especially older adults and people with lower incomes, stay safe during natural disasters and extreme weather events.” About 22% said local governments do enough, and 26% were not sure.

55% of voters in the South said local governments do not do enough, the highest share of any region we asked about, compared with 48% of voters in the Midwest. Women indicated that they believe local governments do not do enough at a higher rate than men, 54% to 48%.

Political Fatigue Is High, Yet People Report Being More Politically Engaged

Wed, 22 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

In our latest Change Research national survey of 1,714 registered voters, conducted June 10-17, 2026, we asked about voters’ engagement with political news and civic life. The results paint a picture of an electorate that is frustrated with the current political climate and the options available to them, but still more engaged than they have been before.

Americans have negative attitudes towards the current political news climate, but still believe it’s important to stay engaged

Americans are exhausted by politics. They’re staying informed anyway. 77% of registered voters say that the statement, “I feel exhausted by how much is happening politically” describes them “a lot” or “somewhat.” An even larger share, 86%, indicate that the statement, “I feel like staying informed is important even when it is hard” describes them.

18-34 year olds differ notably on these metrics. They are more likely to feel exhausted by how much is happening politically (81% of 18-34 year olds say “a lot” or “somewhat,” compared to 77% overall). They are less likely to say they’ve found ways to stay informed without feeling overwhelmed (58% vs. 69% overall). However, they are still as likely as the general population to indicate that they feel like “staying informed is important even when it is hard.”

Many voters are intentionally cutting back on their political news consumption, particularly Independents

The feelings of exhaustion and being overwhelmed seem to be causing many voters to intentionally decide to consume less political news or social media. 28% of voters say they have deliberately cut back on how much political news or social media they consume in the last three months, while only 13% have deliberately increased it. Independents have been more likely to deliberately cut back on their political consumption, with 36% of them doing so. There is also a notable age and racial divide, with younger voters and voters of color more likely to report cutting back.

Americans don’t feel represented by politicians running for or holding office

Part of voters’ frustration with the current political climate may have to do with the fact that they generally don’t feel politicians actually represent them. 60% of voters say that politicians running for or holding office “Almost never” or “Rarely” actually represent their concerns. This thought is especially prevalent among Independents, with only 20% of them saying that politicians “Sometimes” or “Almost always” actually represent their concerns. Younger voters are also less likely to feel like their concerns are actually represented.

Voters report an increase in their own civic engagement

Voters report an increase in their own civic engagement. 32% of voters say they’re more engaged in civic life than they were two years ago, more than three times the 10% who say they’re less engaged. Democrats are more likely to say they are more engaged at 37%, versus just 7% saying they are less engaged than they were two years ago. In contrast, 28% of pure Independents are more engaged than they were two years ago, while 19% are less engaged. There is a notable gender gap: 36% of women say they are more civically engaged than two years ago, compared to 28% of men.

Voter Views on Public Services

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,714 registered voters, conducted June 10-17, 2026, finds that, when given a choice between “a public agency funded through taxes” or “a private company operating to make a profit” majorities prefer public management of nine essential services. Services tested include emergency responders and children’s health coverage. Support for public agencies is highest on physical infrastructure and lowest on services oriented toward healthcare and delivery.

Federal debate over which services the government should fund and manage has intensified in the past year, most recently through provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that introduced new eligibility requirements for Medicaid recipients. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services published its implementation framework for those requirements on June 1, 2026, with full national enforcement set to begin January 2027.

Emergency Services and Infrastructure

Seventy-eight percent of voters prefer emergency responders, such as fire departments and police departments to be run by a public agency, compared to 10% who say a private company would work better. Democrats and Republicans both have majorities prefering public agencies: 89% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans prefer a public agency for emergency services. Over 50% of Republicans prefer public agenciesfor other infrastructure and community facility items.

Seventy-two percent of all voters prefer public management of roads and bridges (D=87%, R=59%), 70% prefer it for libraries, and 67% prefer it for clean water systems.

Health Coverage, Schools, and Delivery

Sixty-eight percent of voters indicated that they would prefer public management of health coverage for the elderly (D=88%, R=49%), and 65% say the same for children’s health coverage (D=88%, R=42%).

Voters 18 to 34 are more likely than voters 65 and older to prefer public management of elderly health coverage, 74% to 64%.

Fifty-nine percent prefer public management of “mail and package delivery to every address in the country” (D=79%, R=39%), and 60% prefer it for shared public transit such as buses and trains (D=82%, R=38%). Mail delivery has the largest share of voters preferring a private company at 24%, compared to 10% for emergency responders.

Shared Costs and Community Support

Eighty-one percent of voters say people who fall on hard times should be able to count on help from their community, public resources, or others. Ninety-three percent of Democrats and 78% of pure independents share this view, as do 70% of Republicans. Seventeen percent of Republicans say people in that situation should find their own way, compared to 11% of pure independents and 1% of Democrats. Women are more likely than men to say community help should be available, 84% to 78%.

When given a forced choice, eighty-two percent say it makes more sense for everyone to contribute to shared services through taxes rather than pay for them individually as they use them. On this question, Republicans and pure independents give the same answer: 74% of each group prefer the shared tax model, compared to 91% of Democrats. Opposition is also equal between the two groups, with 14% of both Republicans and pure independents preferring a pay-as-you-use model, compared to 4% of Democrats.

The Trust Playbook: What Voters Are Waiting to See and Hear

Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,330 likely general election voters, conducted May 5 through 7, 2026, finds that just 15% of likely 2026 voters say they trust the Democratic Party and feel it represents their interests. Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters (58%) say they will not vote for a candidate they don’t trust, regardless of where that candidate stands on the issues.

The Trust Gap

The survey segments likely voters into five groups. Loyalists, the 15% who trust the party and feel it represents their interests, are the smallest group. Skeptics make up 25%, generally agreeing with the party’s positions but not trusting its leaders to deliver. Another 22% have drifted away from the party over time, and 30% say they have never felt close to the Democratic Party.

Trust to Handle Top Issues

The economy, cost of living, and child welfare rank as the issues most likely to guide voter decisions this fall. But Democrats are underwater when it comes to voters trusting them to handle these issues, and the Democratic Party must figure out how to build or establish trust with voters when it comes to the problems they care most about.

What the Data Says We Can Do To Build Trust

On July 15 at 3 PM ET / 12 PM PT, the Plus or Minus briefing series takes on The Trust Playbook. Principal Researcher Courtney Kronenberg, Strategic Accounts Lead Flora Mendoza, and Committee on States Executive Director Daniel Ramos walk through new data on what drives voter trust, which messengers, frames, and issues move the needle, and what campaigns and organizations can do right now to close the trust gap.

Tracking Voter Shifts in Financial Anxiety

Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,714 registered voters, conducted June 10 to 17, 2026, finds that majorities report pessimism about the economy, everyday prices, and their own financial outlook. Change Research has tracked these questions monthly since January 2026, and the June figures represent the most pessimistic readings on nearly every measure across that period. Voters cite compounding financial pressures, from fuel and groceries to housing and healthcare, in their responses to both multiple choice questions and an open-ended question about what it would take for them to feel more financially secure.

Recession Perceptions

Sixty-three percent of voters say they believe the economy is in a recession (contrary to the economic definition): 38% say there is definitely a recession, and 25% say probably. Sixteen percent say probably not, and 12% say definitely not. That figure has risen across every monthly survey since January (before the Iran conflict), when 46% of voters said the economy was in recession.

Republicans showed the largest negative shift over the six-month period. In January, 17% said the economy was in a recession. By June, that number had doubled to 36%. Democrats also increasingly indicated that they feel the economy is in recession (increasing from 72% to 86%), as did pure independents (increasing from 57% to 71%).

Outlook on the Economy and Personal Finances

Eighty-five percent of Democrats expect the broader U.S. economy to be worse a year from now, while just 3% expect improvement. Among Republicans, those expectations essentially flip: 59% say it will be better, 19% say it will be worse. Pure independents sit closer to Democrats: 71% say worse, 12% say better. Overall, 56% of voters expect things to get worse, and 28% expect improvement.

At the start of the year, 76% of Republicans expected the economy to improve in the next twelve months. By June, that figure had dropped to 59%, a 17-point decline over six months. The Republican share expecting things to get worse fell from 6% in January to 19% in June. Among pure independents, the share expecting things to get worse climbed from 66% to 71% over the same period.

Seventy-one percent of voters 18 to 34 expect the economy to worsen. Voters 65 and older are the most optimistic, though still only 37% expect improvement over the next year.

Personal finances tell a different story. From January through April, the share of voters expecting their personal finances to worsen held steady between 23% and 25%. The share of voters expecting their personal finances to get worse rose to 33% in May and 36% in June. The partisan gap on this question is large but narrower than the gap on views toward the economy: 53% of Democrats expect their finances to worsen over the next year, compared to 15% of Republicans.

Views on personal finances don’t vary much by age. Voters 18 to 34 are nearly evenly split on whether their personal finances will improve in the next year: 37% say better, 36% say worse. Among voters 65 and older, 33% feel things will get worse and 28% believe they will get better.

The Price of Everyday Goods

In January, half of voters expected everyday goods to cost more a year from now. By June, 62% say the same.

Democrats are the most pessimistic at 89%. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans now expect prices to go up, up from 12% in January. Voters between 18 and 34, have become much more pessimistic: in January, 55% thought prices would go up, and in June that number was 78%.

Asked separately to describe the overall direction of prices across groceries, housing, fuel, and healthcare over the past year, 64% of voters say prices are still rising and they see no relief coming. Another 20% say prices have stabilized but are still too high, and 9% say things have actually improved compared to a year or two ago.

That no-relief view is near-universal among Democrats at 88%. Among Republicans, it splits more evenly: 38% say no relief is coming, 36% say prices have stabilized but are still too high.

Among voters 18 to 34, 72% see no relief coming. Voters 50 to 64 are the least likely to feel that way: 57% see rising prices and no relief.

Part of what drives this is a longer-running gap between what things cost and what people take home. A May 2026 Change Research survey found that 65% of middle-income Americans said their income was falling behind the cost of living, a share that had barely moved across several consecutive quarters.

Fuel and Gas Prices

Thirty-eight percent say rising fuel and gas prices have affected their household a great deal in the past two months, and another 32% say it has somewhat affected their household. Combined, nearly seven in ten respondents report at least some household impact.

Pure independents report the highest level of severe impact at 46%. Democrats report 44%, and Republicans 28%. Voters 35 to 49 feelthe impact of gas prices most (42%). Voters 65 and older report the lowest impact, with 31% saying they feel the impact a great deal.

When asked what they think is driving higher gas and energy prices, 51% point to the Middle East conflict and its disruption to global oil supply. Democrats are the most likely to name this cause at 66%. Republicans (40%) and pure independents (43%) are less likely to, more often naming oil company pricing decisions or the lingering effects of prior inflation.

Housing Stability

Twenty-eight percent of voters say they own their home and feel financially stable. An additional 29% own their home but express concern about costs such as mortgage rates or property taxes. Sixteen percent say they are renting and struggling with rising housing costs, while 14% rent and feel stable.

Thirty-nine percent of Republicans say they own their home and feel financially stable, compared to 21% of Democrats.

Among voters 18 to 34, 10% own their home and feel financially stable, the lowest of any age group, while 27% are renting and struggling, the highest of any age group. Among voters 65 and older, 43% own their home and feel stable, and 7% are renting and struggling.

That generational gap in housing stability tracks with broader perceptions about housing access. An April 2026 Change Research survey found that 86% of voters said buying a home was harder today than it was for their parents’ generation, including 96% of voters 18 to 34. Among that same age group, 37% said they did not have enough money saved to make major financial purchases, more than double the rate seen among older voters.

What Voters Say They Need

In response to an open-ended question about what would need to happen over the next six months to make them feel more financially secure, the most frequently cited theme across parties and ages is lower prices for groceries, gas, utilities, and housing. References to fuel and energy costs come up by a wide margin and are often linked explicitly to the conflict in Iran. Wages not keeping pace with the cost of necessities appears frequently as a secondary theme.

Democratic respondents are most likely to connect economic conditions to political leadership and to describe a change in government as a precondition for financial relief. Republican respondents are more likely to point to the end of the Iran conflict and the effect that peace would have on energy prices, and to describe the current administration’s policies as the path toward improvement. Pure independents are more likely to express structural frustration about wages, pricing, and government spending without anchoring the solution to a specific electoral outcome.

Housing and rent figure heavily in responses from younger voters. Several describe their rental costs as having risen sharply in recent years with no parallel increase in income. For voters in the 18-to-34 range, homeownership comes up frequently as something that feels out of reach.

“Access to better paying jobs, lower health care costs, rent decreasing, as my rent rose from $1,600/month to $4,900 which led to moving.”

White Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

“My energy and gas bills have doubled year-over-year compared to before the Iran war. Also, grocery prices keep going up. They need to come back down.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 18 to 34, Democrat

Older voters are more likely to describe fixed-income constraints, Social Security benefits that have not kept up with rising prices, and concerns about healthcare and prescription drug costs.

“A proper increase in Social Security. Congress gets 8½ times more than me when they retire and I know they didn’t work as hard as I did in 47 years.”

White Man, 50 to 64, Republican

Fuel prices come up as a pressure point across party lines. Several respondents connect gas prices directly to the broader cost of goods, describing fuel as a multiplier on other expenses.

“Fuel prices need to come down over $3.00 per gallon for diesel fuel, at the pump. Our entire economy is based on the cost of diesel fuel.”

White Man, 35 to 49, Republican

A subset of respondents across all groups describe their situation as unlikely to improve in the near term, regardless of what happens politically or economically. Several note that winning the lottery is the most realistic scenario for feeling financially secure, responses that register as expressions of frustration more than specific policy preferences.

Happy 250th, America: Proud Today, Hopeful for Tomorrow

Thu, 02 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This Fourth of July, the United States turns 250. To mark the occasion, a Change Research survey of 1,714 registered voters, fielded June 10 through 17, 2026, asked Americans how they’re feeling about the milestone, what they think it means to be American today, and what they’re hoping for next. A sense of pride leads the way, but there are a wide range of opinions. When combined with those who feel hopeful, celebratory, or nostalgic, more than four in ten Americans are approaching the country’s 250th anniversary in a festive spirit.

How We Feel About the USA

Asked to pick one word for how they feel about the country’s 250th birthday this summer, more Americans chose proud (22%) than any other option, ahead of uninspired (15%), frustrated (13%), conflicted (11%), celebratory (9%), indifferent (9%), hopeful (7%), uncomfortable (5%), nostalgic (4%), not sure (3%), and anxious (2%).

That sense of pride builds with age, climbing from 12% among Americans 18 to 34 to 27% among those 50 and older. Pride is strongest among Republicans, at 45% Democrats and independents are also marking Independence Day too, but with a wider mix of feelings overall.

How We Describe Ourselves

When we asked Americans, in one sentence, how they’d describe the United States to a visitor from another country, one word came up more than any other, by a wide margin: freedom. For plenty of respondents, that single word was the entire answer.

“Freedom”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 65+, Republican

Right behind it was a sense of the country as a place built from many places.

“The United States is a giant melting pot of people and ideas.”

Black/African American Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

“There are no perfect countries but the United States is the best nation to protect individual liberties.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 35 to 49, Republican

“More opportunities than any other country to make something of yourself!”

American Indian/Alaska Native Man, 50 to 64, Independent

Not every answer was rosy. A handful of Americans summed the country up in a single, more pointed word instead, like “Divided.” But for every one-word complaint, there were a few more Americans holding pride and honesty in the same sentence.

“Beautiful cities and landscapes, lots of opportunities but lots of corruption at the higher level.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 18 to 34, Democrat

What Makes Us American

Ask Americans what it actually takes to be “truly American,” and there was broad consensus on the basics. Believing in the principles of the Declaration of Independence, including equality, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, ranks first at 97% important, with 96% of Democrats, 97% of independents, and 99% of Republicans on the same page. Believing in democratic values like free elections, the rule of law, and free speech follows at 96%, and respecting American laws and institutions ranks third at 95%, both with similarly strong agreement across the political spectrum.

Accepting and respecting people of different backgrounds, cultures, and religions (87%) and feeling a sense of loyalty and commitment to the country (84%) round out the top five, each backed by strong majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans alike. Lower on the list, the parties diverge more, particularly on speaking English as a primary language and being a Christian. But on the core civic values that define the country on paper, Americans are remarkably aligned.

What Americans Want More Of

That gap between principle and practice is a big part of why, when we asked what Americans most want the country to accomplish over the next 25 years, the wish list reads less like a complaint and more like a to-do list.

By a wide margin, the single most common answer was affordable, accessible healthcare. Versions of “universal healthcare,” “healthcare for all,” and “fix health care” showed up throughout the sample, most often from Democrats and independents, but with real representation from Republicans too.

“Universal healthcare”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“Healthcare for all tax paying people in the US.”

Asian/Pacific Islander Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

For many, healthcare was part of a broader wish for a lower cost of living overall: rent, groceries, gas, and the basics.

“Lower the cost of meat, gas and groceries.”

White Man, 50 to 64, Republican

The second most common theme cut across party lines almost entirely: a desire for more accountability from the people in charge. Calls for term limits and an end to corruption came from Republicans and Democrats alike, making it one of the few genuinely bipartisan items on the list.

“Get rid of both political parties and establish age and term limits for members of Congress.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 65+, Independent

The wish list splits on a few of the country’s more contested issues. Immigration and reproductive rights are good examples: Republicans and Democrats often want very different things, but both are describing a country they want to see live up to its own standards a little better.

“Closed borders. Affordable food.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 50 to 64, Republican

“Healthcare, including abortion, for all”

White Woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

On healthcare, the cost of living, and basic government accountability, the through line holds across the political map without much disagreement at all: Americans want a country that works better for everyone in it.

Looking Ahead with Hope

Looking out over the next five years, hope centers on each other just as often as it centers on any single policy. Asked what they’re most hopeful about for the country, Americans across the spectrum kept landing on a similar idea: getting along better.

“Unity”

White Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

“Getting along with one another.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 35 to 49, Independent

“Safer, happier, healthier, calmer, blessed.”

Black/African American Woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

Plenty of Americans are also hoping for some relief at the register.

“The most hopeful that the cost of goods will go down.”

Black/African American Man, 18 to 34, Republican

“Lower interest rates”

Asian/Pacific Islander Man, 18 to 34, Democrat

Others looked beyond our own borders, hoping for peace overseas.

“Finding peace with Russia and China.”

White Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

And a smaller group placed their hope simply in the country’s institutions holding steady, regardless of who’s in charge.

“Continue following the constitution”

White Woman, 65+, Republican

For some, hope was also tied closely to the next election, a reminder that politics and patriotism are deeply intertwined for a lot of Americans. But the steadier, more lasting hopes, for unity, for affordability, for peace, were the ones that showed up in every corner of the political map.

A Hopeful 250th

Whatever Americans feel about the day itself, what they want next sounds a lot like the country’s founding promise: a little more freedom, a little more opportunity, and a little more togetherness, for everyone. As one respondent put it, summing up the next 25 years in three words:

“Peace, Unity, Prosperity”

White Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

Methodology

This Change Research survey was conducted June 10 through 17, 2026, among 1,714 registered voters nationwide. The modeled margin of error is ±2.5%.

Happy 250th, America!

Movable Voter Frustrations With Both Parties

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research Compass Poll of 2,244 registered voters nationwide, conducted May 5 to 10, 2026, finds that among voters who have not firmly committed to either party, 78% rated Democrats unfavorably at the time of the survey and 73% rated Republicans unfavorably. This analysis focuses on what we call Movable voters — roughly half of the electorate who have not firmly committed to supporting one party or the other.

A Change Research Compass Poll of 2,244 registered voters nationwide, conducted May 5 to 10, 2026, finds deep frustrations with both political parties among “movable” voters who either 1) are undecided in the race for US House, 2) only somewhat disapprove of the job President Trump is doing or are unsure, or 3) hold unfavorable views of both parties. These voters make up nearly a third (31%) of the electorate. Their frustrations are wide-ranging and don’t fall into one simple narrative where, if the parties focused on just that, all problems would be solved.

Democratic Party Frustrations

Spine and Fight

The most frequently cited frustration about the Democratic Party is a perceived lack of fight. Voters across demographic groups describe the party as passive and timid, operating by norms they say the Republican Party abandoned long ago.

“Do-nothing democrats! They can’t take a stand against republicans and are complacent. I want a Democratic Party who will fight for me.” - Hispanic/Latina Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

“Democrats are weak and still operate as if it’s 20 years ago. They need to be tougher, louder, and push back way more.” White Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

“Democrats are too timid to make a stand and only do so after being yelled at and primaried by constituents.” Black/African American Man, 18 to 34, Democrat

“The majority of the Democrats have no backbone and don’t stand up for the injustices we suffer. They talk a good game but they’re just as bad as many of their colleagues.” - Black/African American Woman, 65+, Democrat

Ideological Direction

A competing frustration runs in the opposite direction. Some voters say the Democratic party has drifted too far left and lost touch with the mainstream, focusing on fringe positions while working- and middle-class economic concerns go unaddressed. Both camps exist within this same group of persuadable voters.

“Cares more about identity politics than actually improving the lives of Americans.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Independent

“They focus on identity politics and don’t listen to low income citizens and have this obnoxious savior complex.” - Hispanic/Latina Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

“Forgetting about the middle class and how unaffordable life is, focusing on too many social issues, becoming self serving.” - Hispanic/Latina Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

Promises and Follow-Through

A third recurring theme is a credibility gap between what Democrats promise on the campaign trail and what they deliver in office. These respondents do not describe a lack of ideas; they describe a pattern of rhetoric that fails to produce results.

“They promise everything to the common man and when they win, they just maintain the status quo.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Independent

“They talk a good game but never deliver. They play by rules the other party doesn’t play by anymore. They let decorum get in the way of helping people.” - Hispanic/Latino Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

Candidates and Leadership

A related set of responses focuses on candidate quality and party leadership. Some voters describe a party that protects incumbents, sidelines stronger alternatives, and does not reflect the people it claims to represent.

“Gerontocracy, beholden to elite financial interests, entrenched corrupt leadership that disrespects progressives and younger candidates.” - Black/African American Man, 65+, Democrat

“They torpedo their own best candidates because they are scared of actually giving people what they need.” - Hispanic/Latina Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

“Absolute incompetence and inability to bring forth a candidate that won’t throw an election in the garbage.” - Hispanic/Latino Man, 18 to 34, Republican

Republican Party Frustrations

Trump and Party Identity

The most frequently cited frustration about the Republican Party among persuadable voters is the party’s relationship with President Trump. Respondents from across the political spectrum describe a party that has traded independent judgment for personal loyalty to one figure.

“How they always seem to bow down to Trump on every single issue.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Independent

“Congress, even with its Republican majority, is completely feckless and impotent, surrendering all of its power to Trump’s whim. Few Republicans in Congress have ever expressed a thought independent of Trump.” - American Indian/Alaska Native Woman, 35 to 49, Independent

Economic Priorities

A populist economic strain runs through frustrations with the Republican Party, and it crosses party lines. Voters describe a party that governs primarily for the wealthy and for corporations, while cutting programs that ordinary Americans rely on.

“A complete lack of care for the common man. The Republican party only serves billionaires.” - White Woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

“A vast majority of them take too much lobby money to vote in favor of corporate interests instead of their constituents.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

Hypocrisy and Broken Promises

Several voters point to a gap between the Republican Party’s identity as the party of fiscal conservatism and its governing record. This theme surfaces among both Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning respondents.

“Hypocrisy. They claim to be the party of fiscal conservatism and yet outspend the democrats every chance they get. They get majorities and then do nothing with them but increase the deficit.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Republican

“Trump hasn’t kept any of his campaign promises and he’s getting our military killed for NOTHING.” - White Woman, 65+, Republican

Rights and Foreign Policy

Among a portion of voters, frustrations center on civil and reproductive rights and on the party’s approach to foreign policy, including the war with Iran.

“The Christian Nationalism. There should be a separation of church and state, as intended when this country was founded.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

“Israel-First policies, Iran War, and not following through on domestic promises.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

Intraparty Unity

Not all frustrations with Republicans come from the left. Some right-leaning voters in this group express frustration in the opposite direction: not that the party is too loyal to Trump, but that moderate Republicans have blocked his agenda from moving forward.

“Every time they are voted in as the majority party they act scared and refuse to do what they promised to do.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Republican

“They have to many RINOs that block votes and the leadership won’t take the steps to move legislation forward.” - American Indian/Alaska Native Man, 50 to 64, Republican

A Divided Persuadable Electorate

The responses above reflect an electorate that has not made up its mind, and holds contradictory demands of both parties. On the Democratic side, some voters are frustrated the party does not fight hard enough. Others, in the same group of persuadable voters, say the party has gone too far left. At some point, party leaders and activists will have to choose definitively either to focus on lack of fight without worrying about ideological perceptions or the other way around. Doing nothing will only exacerbate both frustrations with voters who are up for grabs.

On the Republican side, some say the party is too beholden to Trump. Others, also persuadable, are frustrated that elected Republicans have not done more to advance his agenda. This highlights how central 80 year-old Donald Trump is to the identity of the party in the present and future at a time when he is deeply unpopular outside of his base and will never be on the ballot again.

The May 2026 Compass Poll surveyed 2,244 registered voters from May 5 to 10, 2026, with a modeled margin of error of ±2.4%. Open-ended responses cited here are drawn from Movable voters, defined as registered voters outside the strongly committed Brick Wall segment of the electorate. Findings from open-ended data are directional and illustrate recurring themes within this segment.

Plus or Minus Mental Health Webinar Recap

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

On June 17, the Change Research team hosted the latest installment of the Plus or Minus webinar series, sharing fresh data from our June 2026 Compass Poll on what voters think about mental health and the policies meant to address it.

The Issue Voters Say Leaders Keep Ignoring

We asked webinar attendees which issue politicians ignore more: mental health or the economy. 82% chose mental health. That number matches the survey data almost exactly: 82% of voters say politicians talk “not enough” or “way too little” about mental health, a view that holds across party lines.

Co-presenter Tyler Fisher, Principal at Trailmark Strategies, framed the challenge this way: Americans now have more access to mental health information, treatment, and insurance coverage than at any prior point in modern history. Stigma has decreased. The conversation has opened up. And yet outcomes have gotten worse across nearly every measure: suicide rates, overdose deaths, teen depression, and loneliness are all trending in the wrong direction.

The Consensus: Access and Affordability

On access to mental health care and insurance, voters are broadly aligned. Insurance coverage ranks as the top overall policy priority, and voters across party lines agree that insurance companies make it difficult to access mental health care coverage.

That consensus extends into primary care. Same-day mental health referrals and screenings in primary care settings both clear 75% support across all party groups, with MAGA Republicans supporting same-day referrals at 81%. Voters are similarly aligned on housing and community services, including affordable housing and expanding community-based support. Overdose- reversal medications like Narcan and requirements that pharmaceutical companies publicly disclose payments they make to addiction treatment centers also draw strong bipartisan support.

Where the Parties Split

Beyond the shared ground on access, the survey reveals sharp divides on some of the most contested parts of the mental health conversation.

Therapy culture: 58% of Republicans say therapy culture has gone too far, compared to 15% of Democrats, a 43-point gap.

Crisis response: Voters broadly support having mental health professionals involved in crisis response, though Democrats and Republicans are 53 points apart on the question. On police co-response (where officers and mental health professionals respond to a call together), the gap widens to 57 points: 95% of Democrats are in support, compared to 38% of Republicans.

Involuntary hospitalization: Only 5% of voters ages 18 to 34 support making it easier to hospitalize someone involuntarily, compared to 74% of seniors. The divide is generational as much as partisan: younger voters favor access, affordability, and school-based solutions, while older voters are more accepting of institutional or coercive approaches.

Red flag laws: Red flag laws, which allow courts to temporarily restrict someone’s access to firearms if they pose a risk to themselves or others, draw 63% support overall, including 63% of non-MAGA Republicans, 82% of women, and 83% of people of color.

Veterans, Law Enforcement, and a Counterintuitive Finding

The survey finds that 97% of Black respondents support law enforcement mental health programs, compared to 92% of white respondents and on par with Democrats overall. Voters ages 18 to 34 are the strongest supporters at 96%, slightly above every other age group. Women are 10 points more likely than men to strongly support these programs (76% vs. 65%), even though total support levels are comparable across gender.

Veterans’ mental health programs draw similarly broad backing. Across both areas, support runs high regardless of party when mental health is framed around a specific population rather than as a broad policy issue.

Addictive Digital Technologies: An Issue Still Up for Grabs

The survey asked voters about a broader range of addictive digital technologies, including social media, pornography sites, gaming platforms, gambling apps, and AI chatbots. Across all of them, the data shows strong support for age restrictions, with a minimum age of 18 drawing the widest backing.

The survey also tested one regulatory argument in particular: should companies that profit from getting users addicted to social media, gaming, gambling, and pornography face the same taxes and regulations as tobacco companies, with that money going toward addiction prevention? Seventy percent of voters find that argument convincing. Democrats and Republicans are 33 points apart (61% vs. 28%), while independents come in at 72%, women at 76%, and men at 63%. The survey also finds majority support for age verification requirements, taxes on social media platforms, and restrictions on AI-based therapy tools marketed to minors.

Stepping back from screens, the survey also asked about nutrition-based mental health policies, specifically proposals to cover nutrition counseling and dietary support as part of mental health treatment. Seventy-two percent of voters support these policies, with Democrats at 85% and Republicans at 59%.

A Low-Risk, High-Reward Issue for Any Campaign

The survey asked voters which party they trust more to handle mental health: 30% chose Democrats, 24% Republicans, and 36% neither. Mental health is contested territory, not a party-owned issue.

During the webinar, our team flagged five political observations from the data:

Mental health touches every family, which means it reaches every type of voter.
Young men who have been joining the Republican Party are among the most affected by the mental health crisis, creating a less obvious potential opening.
The issue’s cross-partisan nature is a feature worth protecting rather than a vulnerability to be exploited.
Mental health connects directly to the top-priority issues voters care most about, including cost of living and public safety.
No presidential-level agenda on mental health currently exists — which represents an opening for any candidate willing to claim it.

Missed the live session? Catch up with the Briefing Deck and the Webinar Recording.

The Anatomy of the Ideal Candidate

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

We posed one open-ended question to 3,371 U.S. adults across two waves of our May and June 2026 Compass Poll: what kind of person do you want running for president in 2028? The responses point consistently toward character over policy. Honesty and integrity are the most-cited traits in both waves, appearing in roughly one in four responses. The qualities voters reach for when describing 2028 may be the same ones they are applying to candidates on the ballot this fall.

Honesty Is the Floor

“Honesty and Integrity” leads all trait categories in both survey waves, holding steady across party lines, age groups, and racial groups. No other single trait comes close to that level of consistent citation.

The word “honesty” appears in open-ended responses across partisan lines, but the demand behind it varies considerably depending on who is using it. For some voters it is about accountability, for others it is about moral courage, and for others it is about following through on commitments made to the people who elected you. A few responses illustrate the range:

“One who has the courage to tell the truth and do the right thing even if it isn’t popular.” - Hispanic/Latino Man, 65+, Democrat

“Honest, transparent, educated, keeping their word, non corrupt, Steadfast.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Republican

“Honesty First, knows what the MIDDLE Class is going through and try to fix it.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Independent

“Integrity, sensitivity to all citizens, border-economy-racial fairness-and a loving but firm nature when needed.” - Black Woman, 65+, Democrat

The word is shared. The demand underneath it is not identical. Voters are asking for different versions of honesty, shaped in large part by what they feel has been lacking.

The Character Voters Are Looking For

The deeper story in this data is about which character virtues voters reach for first.

Among Republican respondents, Conservative values led all categories by a wide margin in both waves. The open-ended responses behind that number are, in large part, a character list: strength, backbone, fearlessness, follow-through. Republican voters are describing a type of person they believe the current moment requires, not only an ideological alignment.

“A person with morals and values, has a backbone and will not back down, fulfills their campaign promises, cuts wasteful spending, makes our country safer and more prosperous.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Republican

“We need an honest, centered, moderate, sane and stable individual in the oval office. We need somebody who’s not afraid and who isn’t dirty so they can pull the carpet out from under all of these filthy politicians and we can get back to the business of being a decent and upstanding country again.” - White Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

“Someone who knows what it’s like to be a regular citizen. Someone who wants to keep this country the greatest country ever.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

“Integrity, truth, courage, silence… real power is not a show, it’s quiet understanding.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

Among Democratic respondents, Empathy/Cares About People and Honesty/Integrity are both cited at 30 to 32% in both waves, the two highest categories by a wide margin. Democratic voters are centered on recognition and care.

“Someone who cares about all people in the US. Someone who can unite Americans and not divide them. Someone who can bring out the best in people and not the worst.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“A person that would bring class and dignity back to the White House. Someone that could unite the country.” - Black Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“A working-class champion who believes that everyday people, the 99%, deserve a good life, and will fight alongside us for it.” - White Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

“Authentic. Has lived experience. Understands what people are going through and is committed to serving people.” - Hispanic/Latino Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

Republicans emphasize resolve and follow-through; Democrats emphasize empathy and recognition. The underlying demand, that the person in office be genuinely accountable to the people they serve, runs through both.

The Anti-Corruption Signal Is Rising

Responses calling for a candidate free from corporate and special interest influence grew meaningfully between May and June. Among Independents, this was one of the more commonly cited traits in both waves. Among voters 18 to 34, it was the highest of any age group in June.

The ask here is structural rather than ideological. Voters in this cluster want someone who they believe will not be captured, and many are specific about what capture looks like.

“Someone immune to political corruption and stands for we the people!” - White Woman, 50 to 64, Independent

“Average Joe that doesn’t have a rich upbringing. Someone who doesn’t play the politics game and is incorruptible.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Independent, Republican-leaning

“A uniting force that stops the division. Focuses on weeding out legitimate corruption, and whose actions match their words.” - Hispanic/Latino Man, 18 to 34, Independent

“Anti-Establishment, publicly funded, America-First (not MAGA). Has a backbone. Not Epstein-elite class. Does not abuse public office for private gain.” - Hispanic/Latino Man, 18 to 34, Independent, Democrat-leaning

“An independent or third party candidate with common sense, not beholden to either of the two main parties.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Independent

These responses come from different parts of the political map and share a consistent diagnosis: the existing system is captured, and the solution is a candidate who exists outside it. This segment is growing, and it concentrates among the independent voters most likely to decide close races.

Younger Voters: Economy, Foreign Policy, and Authenticity

Voters 18 to 34 look meaningfully different from those 50 and older on several dimensions. Economy, jobs, and cost of living are cited at roughly twice the rate of older voters in both waves. Healthcare and education follow a similar pattern.

Foreign policy and concerns about war produce the sharpest generational gap in the dataset, cited at several times the rate of those 50 and older.

“Kindness and sincerity, the ability to negotiate and be diplomatic, and not start wars with other countries while sounding like a lunatic cultist.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Independent

“Budget balancer that brings America out of a wartime economy.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Independent, Democrat-leaning

Across both parties, younger voters also place particular weight on authenticity. Their ask is not simply for good policy positions; it is for someone who is “blue collar” or an “every day person.”

“An actual blue collar worker, someone from the middle class that actually knows what’s going on with the world and has lived the life of working for everything you have. Not paid off Democrats and Republicans. They’re in it for themselves.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Republican, 2024 Trump voter

“America needs a hero. Someone with moral clarity and that is honorable to what they say. We don’t need lifelong politicians and we definitely don’t need another actor or businessman. We need a blue collar worker with records of integrity.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

“They would be someone who knows what it’s like to be an every day person and actually struggle to make ends meet.” - White Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

Black Voters: Empathy as a Leading Priority

Among Black respondents, Empathy/Cares About People rose between waves to the highest rate of any group in the survey. Strong Leadership climbed as well, reaching roughly twice the rate cited by White respondents in June.

The open-ended responses from Black voters return consistently to themes of recognition, equal representation, and a president who governs for the full country.

“Truthful leader. Respectful leader. Forward thinking leader. Respect for law/order. Ready to be president for ALL Americans.” - Black Man, 65+

“Articulate. Fair. President for all. United. Cares about peace across the United States. Humble. Caring. Selfless.” - Black Woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

“A person that would bring class and dignity back to the White House. Someone that could unite the country. So we’re not back to arguing, and who shows that they are truly there for the people.” - Black Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“Focuses on issues that affect low to middle class. Empathy and professionalism.” - Black Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

What the 2026 Cycle Should Take From This

The traits voters describe for their ideal 2028 president may be the same criteria they will apply to Senate, House, and gubernatorial candidates this fall.

A few patterns stand out.

The working-class demand is cross-partisan. It appears in Republican, Democratic, and Independent responses, often in nearly identical terms. Candidates on either side who can credibly speak to that frame have a genuine audience across the electorate.

“Some one who hears the minimum wage people that live paycheck to paycheck.” - White Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

“Someone who truly cares about American citizens and the struggles the non-elite face every single day.” - Hispanic/Latino Woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

“Be for the people and help all Americans be able to pay their rent and buy a home.” - Hispanic/Latino Woman, 35 to 49, Independent

The anti-corruption frame is growing among the most persuadable voters. Growing but still a secondary share overall, it is concentrated among Independents and voters under 35. Candidates who can occupy that space credibly in 2026 are building toward something beyond the midterm cycle.

Honesty remains core. Roughly one in four respondents cite honesty, stable across both waves and every demographic group. It does not win races on its own, but the responses throughout this data suggest that candidates who fail the test face a significant recovery challenge.

Change Research conducted two waves of national surveys of U.S. adults as part of the Compass Poll. Wave 1 (May): n=1,871, conducted May 5-10, 2026. Wave 2 (June): n=1,500, conducted June 10-17, 2026. Open-ended responses to “How would you describe your ideal candidate for president in 2028? What kind of traits would that person have?” were coded into 15 thematic categories with multi-coding applied. Findings are directional and reflect unweighted distributions.

Does Mental Health Get Too Little Political Attention?

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

There is evidence that mental health has become an important issue for American voters, yet most say their elected officials are not giving it adequate attention. A Change Research national survey of 1,514 registered voters, conducted May 14 to 20, 2026, finds that 82% of voters say politicians talk about mental health “not enough” or “way too little”, making it the most under-discussed issue tested in the survey.

That figure stands apart from other issues that dominate political discourse. Asked whether politicians talk too much or too little about immigration, 46% of voters say politicians discuss it too much. 55% say politicians don’t discuss the economy enough. Just 7% say politicians discuss mental health too much, and 40% say politicians address it way too little.

The finding holds across party lines. Among Democrats, 92% say mental health receives too little political attention. Among Republicans, 72% say the same. Only 2% of Democratic voters and 12% of Republican voters say politicians discuss mental health too much.

An Electoral Opening

63% of voters say they would be more likely to support a political candidate who makes mental health one of their top three priorities, including 22% who say significantly more likely. Just 7% say they would be less likely to support such a candidate.

Among Democrats, 82% say they would be more likely to back a candidate who prioritizes mental health. Among Republicans, 45% say the same. 70% of women say it’s more likely they would support such a candidate; 54% of men say the same.

The survey finds broad demand for political attention to mental health that crosses parties and demographic groups. For candidates preparing for the 2026 midterms, the data points to an issue where voter interest substantially outpaces the current level of political discussion.

Plus or Minus Economy Webinar Recap

Thu, 28 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Last week, the Change Research team hosted the latest installment of our Plus or Minus webinar series, walking attendees through fresh data from our May 2026 Compass Poll on one of the defining issues of the midterm cycle: the economy. Head of Polling Stephen Clermont and Head of Analyst Team Melanie Phillips led the session, drawing on a survey of 2,244 registered voters conducted May 5-10, 2026, with a modeled margin of error of ±2.4%.

Consumer Confidence Is in Uncharted Territory

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index sits at 48.2, a reading lower than any point recorded over the past 50 years - lower than during the recessions of the late 1970s and early 1980s, lower than the depths of the Great Recession in 2008, lower than COVID, and lower than the inflation peaks of the Biden years. No second-term president in modern history has faced a drop this steep, and the data makes clear that voters are noticing it.

During Trump’s first term, personal disposable income (also known as take-home pay) grew faster than inflation, a dynamic that drove his strong economic approval heading into 2024. That dynamic has reversed in the second term. Inflation has been outpacing growth in personal disposable income, which has largely stayed flat. 65% of middle-income Americans say their income is falling behind the cost of living. That share has held at roughly two-thirds for several quarters.

The Unstable Electorate

For this poll, we divided voters into a ‘Brick Wall’ group (49% of respondents) whose vote choice is fixed, and five overlapping persuadable groups that together make up the other 51%.

Brick Wall voters are decided on their House race, rate their motivation to vote as a 10/10, are 35 or older, and clearly identify as either Democrats or Republicans. That group tilts Republican 54% to 46%.

The other 51% look very different. They skew younger, are more racially diverse, and are less educated on average. They are also experiencing the economy in a fundamentally different way than Brick Wall voters: more financially precarious, more pessimistic about the future, and far less insulated from the gap between what things cost and what they take home. That shared economic anxiety, cutting across Movables, Pure Independents, younger voters, and 2024 non-voters, is what makes this group worth understanding together.

Economic Pain Is Not Partisan

Among Movable voters (those who are undecided in the House race, unfavorable toward both parties, or who somewhat disapprove of Trump’s job), 71% say the United States is already in a recession. 73% of Pure Independents say the same. 72% of Gen Z respondents say yes, we’re already in a recession, the highest of any generation.

69% of Movable voters say they cannot save enough for retirement. 69% say they are behind where they expected to be financially at this stage of their lives. Nearly half of persuadable voters do not have an emergency fund to cover a $1,000 expense.

When asked how they are coping with the gap between income and costs, voters across the board report cutting back on non-essential spending. Younger voters, 18 to 34 year olds especially, are more likely to be taking on extra work, using credit cards, or asking family and friends for help. These patterns are notably less common among Brick Wall voters, who have emergency savings and a generally positive assessment of their personal finances.

The Political Divide

Outside the Brick Wall, pessimism about the economic future is widespread. Among Movable voters, approximately two-thirds believe the U.S. economy will be worse a year from now. Similar majorities expect the prices of everyday goods to keep rising.

Trump is underwater with every group outside his firm base. 73% of Movable voters and 73% of Pure Independents view him unfavorably. His net approval on inflation among Movable voters is -65; among Pure Independents, it is -66.

On the generic House ballot, Democrats lead among every persuadable group. Among Movable voters, the split is 37% Democrat, 18% Republican, and 45% not sure. That undecided chunk represents the primary persuasion and battleground for voter turnout for both parties.

Neither party is viewed favorably by persuadable voters: 78% of Movables rate Democrats unfavorably, and 73% rate Republicans unfavorably.

What Voters Say Matters

Government corruption is the number one issue across all voter segments, including Brick Wall, Movable, Less Motivated, younger, and 2024 nonvoters. Among Pure Independents, 56% name it as a top priority. Inflation and the high cost of goods ranks second among Movables, Less Motivated voters, and 2024 Non-Voters.

On the least important end: 41% of Movable voters and 45% of Pure Independents say fighting wokeness and DEI are a low priority.

What We’re Watching

The pool of persuadable voters is bigger than past cycles would suggest, and frustration with current economic conditions is real and growing across nearly every non-Brick Wall segment. The data points toward competing in more places geographically and among more voter groups than 2022 and 2024 results might indicate, with costs and government corruption as the through-line issues.

Brick Wall voters are largely insulated from financial instability, but they are a shrinking share of the overall electorate. Millennials and Gen Z already make up a significant portion of the voting-age population, and both groups show higher rates of economic anxiety, financial precarity, and pessimism about the future than older voters. Change Research will be tracking how those attitudes shift as the midterms approach.

Missed the live session? Catch up with the Briefing Deck and the Webinar Recording.

Voter Views on the Voting Rights Act Ruling and Redistricting

Thu, 14 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,244 registered voters, conducted from May 5-10, 2026, finds that more voters oppose than support the Supreme Court’s recent decision to limit how the Voting Rights Act can be used to challenge congressional district maps. A plurality supports a federal guarantee of proportional racial representation in Congress. And 61% say a Congress composed primarily of members elected from uncompetitive, single-party districts would erode their trust in the institution.

On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais that Louisiana’s congressional map, redrawn to create a second majority-Black district, constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The decision narrows how states can use race as a factor in drawing congressional districts, limiting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Louisiana has since postponed its congressional primaries. Tennessee and Alabama have moved to revise their legislative districts.

Change Research is tracking this closely as its consequences take shape in communities across the country. This survey was conducted in the immediate aftermath of that ruling, as its real-world consequences were beginning to take shape.

Nearly Half Say Congress Should Reflect the Country’s Racial Makeup

The survey gave voters background around the Voting Rights Act, then asked a direct question: should there be a federal guarantee that the racial makeup of Congress reflects the racial makeup of the country? Forty-six percent said yes, 39% said no, and 15% were not sure.

The demographic breakdown

The partisan divide is the biggest story here. Democrats back a racial representation guarantee 85% to 5%. Republicans oppose it 74% to 8%. That is a 77-point gap. Among independents, feelings are split: 44% yes, 33% no, 23% not sure.

Race shapes the picture too, alongside party:

Black voters: 70% support, 19% oppose
Hispanic voters: 55% support, 32% oppose
AAPI voters: 45% support, 21% oppose, 34% not sure (highest uncertainty of any group)
White voters: 42% support, 44% oppose (the only group where opposition leads)

Opinion on the Callais Ruling

Voters, given a brief summary of the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, oppose it 46% to 36%, with 18% not sure. Thirty-nine percent of voters strongly oppose the ruling, compared to 26% who strongly support it.

A closer look

No racial group in this survey has a majority backing the ruling. Opposition exceeds support across racial groups:

Black voters: 62% oppose, 22% support. Sixty percent oppose strongly, the highest strong-opposition figure of any demographic in the survey.
Hispanic voters: 51% oppose, 31% support
White voters: 43% oppose, 39% support
AAPI voters: 45% oppose, 31% support

The partisan lines are sharp. Democrats oppose the ruling 83% to 6%. Republicans support it 68% to 8%, but 24% are not sure. Among independents, opposition leads 48% to 28%, with 24% still undecided.

Uncompetitive Districts and Congressional Trust

Asked what a Congress filled primarily with members elected from uncompetitive, single-party districts means (or would mean) for their trust in Congress, 60% of voters said they would be less likely to trust its decisions. Nearly half, 48%, said much less likely. Just 11% said it was more likely, and 29% said it would make no difference.

Among racial groups, this question produces the narrowest spread in the entire survey.

Black voters: 69% less likely to trust
AAPI voters: 64%
White voters: 60%
Hispanic voters: 57%

Twelve points separates the highest from the lowest. That compares to 28 points on proportional representation and 19 points on the Callais ruling. Congressional competitiveness is less polarized than the Voting Rights Act.

We’re Here for the Work Ahead

The redistricting fights now unfolding across multiple states are not abstract policy debates. For the campaigns, advocacy organizations, and communities doing this work, they are immediate, personal, and consequential. Public opinion on these issues is still forming, and it is forming differently in different states, among different communities, and at different speeds.

Change Research will continue tracking national and state-level opinion on voting rights and redistricting as this landscape evolves. For organizations working in affected states, we can help you understand how these questions are landing with the specific voters and communities you serve.

About This Survey

Polling was conducted online from May 5-10, 2026. Using Dynamic Online Sampling to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 2244 registered voters nationwide. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, urbanicity, and 2024 presidential vote. You can see a full methodology statement here, which complies with the requirements of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative. Members of the Transparency Initiative disclose all relevant details about our research, with the principle that the public should be able to evaluate and understand research-based findings, in order to instill and restore public confidence in survey results.

Voters Oppose Both Taxpayer and Private Funding for Trump's White House Ballroom

Thu, 14 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,244 registered voters, conducted May 5 to 10, 2026, finds that most voters oppose congressional action to fund the Donald J. Trump Presidential Ballroom. Opposition holds regardless of whether the funding comes directly from taxpayers or from private donors authorized by Congress.

A federal judge ruled in April that construction on the White House ballroom must stop until Congress formally approves the project. Following a shooting incident at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last month, Senate Republicans introduced legislation to authorize $400 million for the ballroom, and the White House has since sought to include up to $1 billion in security-related funding for the project in a broader reconciliation bill. The ballroom was originally promoted by President Trump as privately funded.

Taxpayer Funding

66% of voters oppose Congress allocating $400 million in taxpayer money for the ballroom. 25% support it. 9% are unsure.

The partisan breakdown:

97% of Democrats oppose it
78% of independents oppose it
54% of Republicans support it, 29% oppose it
Non-MAGA Republicans are nearly split: 40% support it, 39% oppose it
MAGA Republicans: 63% support it, 22% oppose it

Private Funding Authorization

Framing the question as private fundraising rather than direct appropriation narrows opposition but does not flip it. 55% oppose and 39% support a privately funded ballroom.

The shift is largest among Republicans:

78% of Republicans support private authorization, compared to 54% who support direct taxpayer funding
MAGA Republicans: 86% support private funding
Non-MAGA Republicans: 64% support private funding, up from 40% who support public funding

Independents are unmoved: 79% oppose private authorization, nearly identical to the 78% who oppose taxpayer funding. 94% of Democrats oppose either approach.

Sixty-one percent of women and 47% of men oppose private funding authorization. Men are the demographic most supportive of private funding .

About This Survey

Where Americans Stand on AI and the Workforce

Wed, 06 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,702 registered voters, conducted April 3-7, 2026, asked people about opportunities for human workers as AI becomes increasingly capable. Artificial intelligence has expanded into professional settings, prompting new questions about what work looks like when machines can do more of it.

What Voters Say About Work, Purpose, and AI

Nearly 1,000 voters answered in their own words: if AI keeps doing more of the work, what should people do to earn a living and feel like they have a purpose? The responses fall into a few broad categories: human connection and care as irreplaceable work, skilled trades as the practical alternative, and, for some, a rethinking of whether earned income should remain the foundation of purpose.

Trades and Skilled Manual Labor

One of the more frequently cited paths forward involves skilled trades. Voters across parties and age groups argue that physical, hands-on work is difficult to automate and undervalued in a way that may soon change.

“Learn a trade. AI will never turn a wrench.” - White Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

“The trades will never be replaced, so people should not look down on blue collar work.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Independent

“I am a tradesman. I have been for 40 years. I feel that getting your hands dirty and coming home tired from a good productive day’s work and seeing your family succeeding is the greatest reward ever.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Republican

“People should move from white collar desk jobs to trade related jobs that require a human to complete. That makes a person more indispensable and brings about an increase in job security.” - Hispanic Man, 18 to 34, Republican

The trades theme is the most common response among Republicans in the open-ended data, appearing at roughly twice the rate of Democratic responses. Among age groups, it appears most commonly among voters 50 to 64 and 65+.

Not every respondent sees trades as a practical answer for everyone. One voter captured the tension directly:

“How are people expected to work if AI is going to do their job? Are we all supposed to be landscapers?”

White Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

Human Connection, Care, and Creativity

The most common theme across all open-ended responses involves work that requires human presence, judgment, and emotional connection. Respondents across age groups and parties point to nursing, teaching, therapy, and caregiving as spaces where AI cannot substitute for a person.

“Do what AI can’t do: nursing, childcare, anything in the build trades.” - White Woman, 65+, Democrat

“There is still work that requires a combination of human judgement, creativity, imagination, and physical response.” - Black Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“AI can never replace human connection and interaction. People should focus on jobs that focus on human connection, like therapist or psychologist.” - Asian/Pacific Islander Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

This theme is most prominent among voters aged 18 to 34, where it appears at the highest rate of any age group.

“People will have to oversee AI and work with it in order to earn a living. Our concepts of job and employment will also fundamentally change, as did people’s focus on art and language once writing and photography were invented.” - Asian/Pacific Islander Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

Some respondents extend the argument toward a broader reframing of what work should be:

“Redefine work as human-centric activity: creativity, care work, medical work, craftspeople, tradesmen, coaches, therapists, mentors, community builders, educators, civic service, and volunteerism. Decouple income from labor.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

The concern about creativity and the arts crosses party lines. Older Republican women are among those calling for its protection in schools.

“Support creativity, art, music, dance, and performance arts in schools.” - White Woman, 65+, Republican

Universal Basic Income

A share of respondents, concentrated among younger voters and Democrats, call for universal basic income (UBI) or a shift away from the premise that earned income is the foundation of purpose.

“There should be a universal income which allows people to pursue what fulfills them.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“They should be free to pursue passion projects and receive a universal basic income. We can call it the AI dividend or something.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

“For every job replaced by AI, that company should contribute to a Universal Basic Income fund.” - Hispanic Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

UBI responses appear in Democratic open-ends at roughly seven times the rate of Republican responses. Among age groups, UBI responses peak among voters 35 to 49.

“A UBI would be the best approach to make people feel like life is actually affordable. It costs to be alive and the fact that most people can barely afford to do it is devastating the American worker.” - Hispanic Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

Concern about where the economic gains from AI land is not limited to Democrats.

“AI is a blessing and a curse. All the monetary savings cannot be allowed to concentrate in a few hands.” - White Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

“AI, if implemented correctly, is more likely to give people the freedom to work on more human endeavors than it is to leave people without a living.” - Hispanic Man, 35 to 49, Republican

Fear and Uncertainty

Fear and uncertainty appear across all age groups and party lines in the open-ended responses, with no single group clearly dominating.

“It is already happening, office workers are being replaced with AI. Like auto workers were replaced with robots. In the next 50 years there probably won’t be a single job that a human will be needed for. That is terrifying. I am an electrician so my job is safe for 10-20 years but as the technology advances even I won’t be essential.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Democrat

“This is the replacement that people should be worried about in this country. The younger people are getting squeezed out and the big companies don’t care. All they care about is their bottom line.” - Black Man, 65+, Democrat

“As a lifetime teacher, AI terrifies me as it removes the need for independent thought.” - White Woman, 65+, Democrat

Voters aged 35 to 49 show the highest rates of fear and UBI calls of any age group in the open-ended responses.

“There will be nothing to do. Greed is what is pushing this garbage forward and it will end with those who aren’t billionaires starving and dying horrifically.” - White Woman, 18 to 34, Independent

Adaptation and Resilience

Most voters in the open-ended responses name a path forward. Comparisons to past technological disruptions appear across age groups and party lines.

“AI is not different from the Industrial Revolution. People lost jobs then too. It’s all a matter of upskilling, which people should always do.” - Asian/Pacific Islander Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

“People are resilient and will reinvent themselves and learn more skills. Some jobs cannot be performed by AI but require a higher skill set. We’ll need to get that training and become the best.” - Black Woman, 65+, Democrat

“People still have many jobs. The AI just makes the pie bigger.” - Asian/Pacific Islander Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

“We always find ways to reinvent the American workforce.” - White Man, 65+, Republican

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 2,702 registered voters from April 3-7, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points.

Voter Views on Family, Work, and Caregiving

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,702 registered voters, conducted April 3 to 7, 2026, finds that men and women hold meaningfully different views on what mothers and caregivers needed, what is driving many younger women toward traditional roles, and what voters want in a romantic partner. As Mother’s Day approaches, those divides extend across party lines and generations in patterns that are consistent throughout the survey.

What Mothers Needed

When asked what the mothers and caregivers in their lives needed more of, 38% voters named affordable childcare, more than any other option provided. Women are more likely than men to cite affordable childcare, 41% to 34%, and Democrats more than Republicans, 47% to 28%. Affordable childcare was most cited by voters 18 to 34 with 44% naming it as a top need.

Better healthcare, including mental health support, was the second most cited response at 28%. 30% of women cited, and 25% of men did. 36% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans cited healthcare. More flexible work options are cited by 26% of women and 19% of men, with 28% voters 35 to 49 citing work options as a top priority.

Equal pay protections in the workplace were far more cited by older voters. Voters 65 and older are the most likely to cite equal pay as a need (25%), compared to 10% of voters 18 to 34. The partisan gap is wide: 28% of Democrats cite it versus 10% of Republicans. Paid parental leave follows a sharp generational curve: 28% of voters 18 to 34 say it was something mothers in their lives need, far more than the 19% among 35 to 49 year olds, 12% among 50 to 64 year olds, and 11% among voters 65 and older.

Views on tax benefits for children are more popular among Republicans. Tax benefits and financial incentives for having children are named by 20% of Republicans and 8% of Democrats, with men citing it at 16% and women at 12%.

13% of men say the mothers and caregivers in their lives had what they needed, compared to 6% of women. The partisan gap is larger than the gender gap, with 15% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats saying mothers had sufficient support.

The Shift Toward Home

The survey asked what is most responsible for the reported trend of young women moving toward more traditional roles. The top three are the high cost of childcare, burnout from trying to manage everything, and genuine personal preference.

Thirty-eight percent of voters cite the high cost of childcare making work financially not worth it. 41% of women cite this, and 35% of men. The partisan gap is narrower here than on most other questions, with Democrats at 40% and Republicans at 36%.

Burnout from trying to balance everything is cited by 28% of all voters. Women are more likely to cite burnout than men, 32% to 23%, and voters 18 to 34 are especially likely to cite burnout as well (32%). Partisan differences are minimal on this explanation.

Genuine personal preference, the idea that many women simply want traditional roles, is cited by 26% overall, including 27% of men and 24% of women. The partisan split on this explanation is the largest in the section: 39% of Republicans cite personal preference, compared to 12% of Democrats.

Social media and influencers romanticizing domestic life is named by 17% of voters 18 to 34, the highest of any age group, compared to 6% of voters 65 and older. One in five voters, 19%, say they do not think this shift is happening at all, with that view more common among Democrats, 25%, than Republicans, 12%.

Partner Preferences

Those structural explanations sit alongside a related set of preferences about partnership itself. A majority of voters prefer a partner who balances career and family life, though the share differs substantially by gender. Sixty percent of women hold this view, compared to 46% of men. 56% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans prefer a partner who balances career and family.

Men are more likely than women to prefer a partner who prioritizes home and family over career, 23% to 14%. Among men under 35, 25% would prefer a partner who prioritizes home and family.

Marriage and Birth Rates

Roughly half of voters, 56%, strongly or somewhat agree that falling marriage rates and declining birth rates are a concern for the country. 66% of men are concerned, and 48% of women. 75% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats are concerned about lower marriage and birth rates.

21% of men want to see government action to address these issues, compared to 13% of women.

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 2,702 registered voters from April 3 to 7, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The sample was weighted to be representative of the registered voter population by age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, and 2024 presidential vote.

Who Do Voters Want in 2028?

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

It’s never too early to start looking towards 2028, right?

Since January 2025, favorable ratings for President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Secretary of State Rubio have fallen from their post-2024 election peaks. A Change Research Compass Poll tracker spanning more than a year of monthly surveys, combined with a March 2026 national survey of 1,038 registered voters on 2028 preferences, finds a mixed picture for all three across age groups, and among young men and independents.

The 2028 Republican primary is starting to take shape, even if nobody will say so out loud. Trump is constitutionally barred from a third term, and Axios reported in February that he has started floating the Vance-versus-Rubio question with advisers. Vance enters that conversation as the frontrunner. Our polling data, though, tells a more complicated story.

The Post-Inauguration Decline

All three figures reached their strongest readings in the Compass Poll tracker just after the January 2025 inauguration. In the February 2025 survey, Trump’s favorability stood at 46%, his best reading in years. Vance’s favorability was at 44% in the same wave. Rubio was at 37% favorable.

By April 2026, all three have lost ground, though Rubio has held steadier than Trump or Vance. In the most recent survey, 55% of voters view Trump unfavorably, compared to 39% favorably. Vance stands at 38% favorable and 51% unfavorable. Rubio holds at 36% favorable and 45% unfavorable.

On job approval, 42% of voters approve of Trump’s performance and 56% disapprove. The intensity of opposition stands out: 51% say they strongly disapprove, compared to 28% who strongly approve.

One signal that runs through the trend data involves men 65 and older. As recently as October 2025, older men were among the warmer subgroups for both Trump and Vance. By April 2026, that warmth has largely dissipated, with older men viewing both figures in line with the broader electorate.

Independent Voters

Among pure independents, views of all three figures have fallen over the course of the administration. In the April 2026 survey, 14% of pure independents view Trump favorably and 72% view him unfavorably. Vance’s numbers with independents are similar: 15% favorable and 62% unfavorable. Rubio fares somewhat better at 16% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Fewer than 1 in 5 independents view any of the three favorably.

The gap between Rubio and the other two figures widened over the course of the tracker. At the start of the administration, all three were viewed similarly by independents. Trump and Vance have each lost more ground with independents than Rubio did over the past 15 months.

Young Voters

Young Republicans view all three figures favorably in the April 2026 survey. More than half of Republicans aged 18 to 34 view Vance (58%) and Trump (61%) favorably, though both trail their older counterparts. Among Republicans 65 and older, about 9 in 10 view all three figures favorably.

Among young Republican voters, a gender gap is visible in Trump’s numbers. Republican men aged 18 to 29 view Trump favorably at 64%, compared to 43% among Republican women in the same age range, a 21-point gap within the party’s own base. No comparable gap appears for Vance, who draws nearly identical favorable ratings from young Republican men (50%) and women (49%).

Among all men 18 to 34, the picture looks different. In the April 2026 survey, 26% of young men view Vance favorably and 60% view him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers with young men are similar: 29% favorable and 63% unfavorable. Rubio draws unfavorable views from a majority of men in this age group as well, though his unfavorable rating is lower than the other two at 48%.

Among voters 18 to 34 who identify as pure independents, the gap widens. Only about 1 in 20 view Vance favorably (5%), with nearly three-quarters viewing him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers with this group are more lopsided: 3% favorable and 87% unfavorable. Rubio reaches 7% favorable, a small share, but better than the other two.

Women aged 18 to 34 are the most unfavorable subgroup across every figure in the full tracker. In the April 2026 survey, 12% of young women view Trump favorably and 78% view him unfavorably. Vance stands at 13% favorable and 66% unfavorable with the same group.

Looking Ahead to 2028

Beyond the favorability numbers, we asked voters directly: if you could pick anyone to run in 2028, who would it be? The open-ended responses, drawn from 1,038 registered voters in March 2026, reflect no clear consensus on either side.

The Republican Field

Vice President Vance drew more unprompted mentions than any other candidate. Roughly a fifth of all respondents named him, either alone or alongside Secretary of State Rubio. Among 2024 Trump voters, he was named at roughly double the rate of any other single candidate.

The age distribution of those who named him tells its own story. The 65-and-over group accounted for more Vance mentions than any other age bracket, and voters 50 and older accounted for more than three-quarters of all his mentions. Among respondents under 35, Vance was named almost exclusively by strong Republicans.

Rubio drew fewer mentions overall, but the coalition nominating him skewed somewhat broader, with more mentions from independent-leaning and weak Republicans. Among young independent men who lean Republican, Rubio drew more 2028 mentions than Vance.

Among young men overall, no Republican candidate consolidated support in the open-ended responses. Strong Republicans disproportionately named Vance. Independent-leaning Republican young men were more likely to name harder-right or libertarian-adjacent figures, or to describe a type of person without naming anyone.

The Democratic Field

On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom led the open-ended responses among Harris voters by a wide margin, drawing particular support from voters 65 and older who backed Harris in 2024.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drew a high share of her mentions from younger respondents. Among voters under 35, she was the most frequently named Democrat, with support appearing across both young women and young men who leaned Democratic.

Pete Buttigieg drew a similar level of mentions across age groups, with particular strength among older Harris voters.

Zohran Mamdani received a small number of mentions in the survey, even though he cannot legally run as a foreign-born citizen. Those mentions appeared disproportionately among younger voters and independents who leaned Democratic.

A Voter Without a Candidate

Roughly one in four respondents did not name a candidate at all. Instead, they described qualities: honest, not beholden to corporations or special interests, not a career politician, under 60. The pattern appeared across party lines and among 2024 Trump and Harris voters in comparable numbers.

“Someone under 65, left-wing but not annoying, and electable.” - White Man, 18 to 34, Strong Democrat

“No ego, has common sense, no special interest, logical, honest, willing to listen.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Weak Republican

As the field takes shape, we will continue tracking how voters’ preferences evolve.

Methodology

Change Research conducted the 2028 preferences survey of 1,038 registered voters in March 2026. The favorability and approval trend data are drawn from the Change Research Compass Poll monthly tracker, which surveys approximately 1,000 registered voters each month. The tracker covers 19 waves of Trump favorability (September 2023 through April 2026), 16 waves of Vance favorability (June 2024 through April 2026), and 5 waves of Trump job approval (December 2025 through April 2026).

Opposition to Data Centers Has Grown Sharply Since 2025

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,702 registered voters, conducted April 3-7, 2026, finds that opposition to data center construction has grown substantially over the past year. Fewer than four in ten voters support building data centers nationally, and support collapses further when voters are asked about construction in their own communities or on property near their homes. The findings are the latest in a series of Change Research surveys tracking how public attitudes toward data centers have shifted as construction activity has accelerated and awareness of energy and infrastructure impacts has increased.

The survey comes as the Trump administration has made AI infrastructure expansion a top priority, with billions of dollars in announced investments in data center construction across the country. Federal and state officials have fast-tracked permitting in several states, even as local opposition has intensified in communities where facilities are planned or under construction.

National Support Has Declined

In early 2025, most voters said they had heard little or nothing about data centers being built in their local communities. By mid-2025, awareness of the issue had grown broadly, with a separate Embold Research national survey finding roughly two-thirds of voters had heard at least “some” about data centers. That shift coincided with a period in which large-scale construction projects from Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and companies linked to Elon Musk became visible in communities across the country, and public hearings and local government debates brought the issue into mainstream conversation.

The polling numbers followed that arc. In March 2025, 65% of voters supported building data centers across the United States, with just 14% opposed. By December 2025, national support had fallen to 45%, and national opposition had risen to 42%, nearly reversing the picture from nine months earlier. In April 2026, roughly 36% of voters support national data center construction, with 53% opposed.

The April 2026 survey tested two versions of a question about data centers. One version specified that data centers power technologies “such as artificial intelligence (AI).” The other described them as facilities that “store information and process data” without mentioning AI. Nationally, support was slightly lower in the version that mentioned AI (35% support, 55% oppose) compared to the version that did not (37% support, 51% oppose), though the differences at the local and nearby-property levels were minimal.

Local Opposition Is the Sharpest

The surveys consistently show a geographic gradient: voters are more willing to accept data centers in the abstract nationally than in their own communities, and far less accepting of construction on property near their own homes.

In March 2025, 51% of voters supported building data centers in their local area, compared to 26% opposed. By December 2025, local support had fallen to 36% with 52% opposed, a net swing of more than 40 percentage points in nine months. In April 2026, just 25-26% of voters support local construction, with 65% opposed.

Opposition to construction on property near respondents’ own homes is the most pronounced. In March 2025, opinions were roughly split, with 37% supporting and 40% opposing nearby construction. By December 2025, only 23% supported and 64% opposed. In April 2026, just 17-18% support nearby data center construction, with 73-74% opposed.

Partisan Patterns

In December 2025, Republican-leaning voters were more supportive of data center construction than Democratic-leaning voters across all three geographic contexts. Nationally, 56% of Republican-aligned voters supported construction, compared to 33% of Democratic-aligned voters. Locally, 47% of Republican-aligned voters supported construction versus 24% of Democratic-aligned voters.

In April 2026, the partisan split persists, but both groups have grown more opposed. 47-52% of Republican voters support national data center construction, compared to 23-24% of Democrats, with pure independents at 29-30% support. Locally, the numbers are tighter on the opposition side: 53-55% of Republicans oppose local construction, while 73-76% of Democrats oppose it.

Energy and Infrastructure Concerns

The December 2025 survey asked voters about specific concerns related to data center energy consumption. Among the concerns tested, energy prices drew the most alarm: 65% of voters said they were “very concerned” about the impact of data center electricity use on the prices Americans pay for energy, with another 23% “somewhat concerned.” Combined, 88% expressed some level of concern about energy prices.

Concern about grid reliability was also high, with 55% “very concerned” and 83% expressing some level of concern overall. On the question of impacts on other local resources such as water and land, 51% were “very concerned” and 80% expressed some concern overall.

The August 2025 Embold Research survey asked a related question about who should bear responsibility when rising energy demand exceeds grid capacity. A plurality, 40%, said the federal government should be responsible, followed by 28% pointing to utility companies and 18% to state governments. The question pointed to a broader public expectation that oversight of data center energy burdens should fall on public institutions, not just the private sector.

What Voters Are Saying

Open-ended responses from the March 2025 survey offered an early window into how voters were processing data center construction before opposition had hardened. Energy demand was the most recurring concern across political lines, appearing in nearly a third of all substantive responses. Respondents described local utility strain, grid fragility, and water consumption as their primary worries, often without prompting on any specific tradeoff.

A number of responses reflected firsthand awareness of local projects. Several respondents named specific corporate construction activity in their communities, including projects by Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and companies linked to Elon Musk, particularly in Memphis and West Tennessee.

Among the responses:

“Data centers require very large electrical power feeds. We do not have enough generation capacity to support them. Several centers have resorted to high pollution solutions.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Independent

“Feels like they’re popping up everywhere and they are a huge strain on water resources in an area.” - Hispanic/Latina Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

“I know electrical engineers who design them for Meta. They are a huge energy drain on the grid and a massive heat source that no one is really talking about.” - White Man, 35 to 49, Independent

“In Texas, data centers are hogging electricity and energy sources where our grid is already fragile.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

“Concerns about noise, but important part of the emerging economy.” - White Man, 50 to 64, Republican

“Elon Musk has chosen my city (Memphis, TN) as the location for the world’s largest artificial intelligence supercomputer. This has been a hot topic here for the last several months.” - White Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 2,702 registered voters from April 3-7, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points. The March 2025 survey was conducted among registered voters in the same national sample frame. The August 2025 survey was conducted by Embold Research, Change Research’s nonpartisan research arm, among a national sample of registered voters. The December 2025 survey was conducted among 1,520 registered voters from December 5-10, 2025, with a modeled margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points. All surveys used online polling methodology with sample balancing on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and 2024 presidential vote.

Voters Prioritize AI Safety (Even If It Means Falling Behind China)

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research survey of 2,702 registered voters, conducted April 3-7, 2026, finds that a majority of Americans prefer stricter regulation of artificial intelligence, even when that choice is framed as potentially ceding the United States’ lead in AI development to China.

A common refrain from policymakers opposing strict AI regulation or AI regulation at the state level is that strict rules will cause the U.S. to fall behind China. President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and former White House AI Czar David Sacks have all argued that regulation risks ceding America’s technological lead. But when voters are asked to weigh that trade-off directly, they consistently choose rules and regulation, even if it means potentially losing America’s lead in AI development.

There is broad skepticism towards AI among American voters. A Change Research survey of 1,741 registered voters, conducted February 5-18, 2026, found that 70% of voters think that AI is going to make their lives somewhat or very different in the next five years. And of that 70%, more expect that change to be negative (43%) than positive (25%).

Safety Over Competitiveness

American voters generally support rules that favor safety and data security, even if those rules slow development. This holds even when framed as a tradeoff between competitiveness with China and safety. When forced to choose, the majority of American voters in the April 2026 survey would rather have stricter rules for AI, even if it means potentially ceding the lead in AI to China. There is a clear partisan difference, as Republican voters are more opposed to AI regulation than Democrats or independents. Still, more Republicans want regulation of AI than oppose it, including when that tradeoff is framed as potentially ceding our advantage to China.

A Consistent Pattern

A Change Research survey of 2,299 registered voters, conducted March 23-28, 2025, found similar results. At that time, a majority of voters preferred stricter rules at home for AI, even if it made American companies less competitive globally. While we, once again, see variation across party lines, there is majority support for stricter rules across party identification.

Support for U.S. Competitiveness

The same March 2025 survey found that a majority of voters support maintaining America’s lead in AI and slowing China’s AI development. While voters were mixed on whether current policies were effective at doing so, the majority still supported the goal of limiting China’s progress, again across partisan lines. This means voters are not indifferent to the competitive landscape.

Key Findings

Taken together, findings show that voters hold two priorities simultaneously. They support protecting America’s lead in AI development, and they support domestic safety protections. However, when voters have to choose between those two priorities, most choose safety.

Yes, the 22nd Amendment Blocks Donald Trump from a Third Term. So Would Barack Obama.

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

President Trump has long teased the idea of “working something out” to seek a third term, or finding a “loophole” that would enable this. We are not lawyers, but the text of the 22nd Amendment, ratified on February 27th, 1951, seems straightforward:

“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.”

When a federal judge halted construction on the White House ballroom project, the President remarked that the build might not be finished in time for him to use it much. His comments point to January 20th, 2029 as the deadline he has in mind. Still, we asked voters what a world without that deadline might look like.

There’s another blocker: if the 22nd amendment disappeared tomorrow, there’s a good chance that former President Barack Obama would become a 2028 candidate as well. In our April Compass Poll, fielded from April 3-7, 2026, we asked who people would support if there was no 22nd Amendment. Obama leads 48% to 39%.

Obama makes gains from Kamala Harris with every group in the electorate. The biggest movement away from Trump to Obama includes Independents, non-MAGA Republicans, young voters, white voters, Hispanic voters, AAPI voters, and women who have not graduated from college.

All of this is, of course, hypothetical and very unlikely. Still, it is worth noting that Donald Trump once hired an actor to play Barack Obama so he could “fire” him. The takeaway is clear: in a one-on-one matchup against Obama, Trump would likely lose decisively.

Over Half of Voters See the American Dream As Out of Reach

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,702 registered voters, conducted April 3 to 7, 2026, finds that most voters rate inflation and the cost of living poorly, and a majority say the American Dream is either a thing of the past or was never as achievable as promised.

Consumer confidence has sunk to historic lows heading into the spring. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 in early April 2026, its lowest reading on record, driven by rising energy prices and economic uncertainty tied to the ongoing conflict in Iran. The findings below reflect a voter base that has been feeling these pressures for some time.

The Affordability Picture

Voters give the economy’s cost dimensions near-failing marks. Eighty-six percent rate the cost of living as not so good or poor, and 80% say the same about inflation. The overall economy fares somewhat better but still draws lots of negativity: 69% rate it not so good or poor.

Party affiliation shapes these ratings considerably. 70% of Republicans rate the overall economy as excellent or good, compared to 4% of Democrats. That gap narrows on inflation and the cost of living, where majorities across both parties give negative marks, though Democrats are more critical on every measure.

Voters are more positive about their own financial situations. Fifty-seven percent rate their personal finances as excellent or good, a meaningful contrast to how they view broader conditions. Still, most describe their finances as constrained: 36% say they have enough for their needs but can only save a little, and 29% say they cover their needs, but it is tight and they rarely save.

The American Dream

Against that backdrop, a slight majority of voters think the American Dream is fading or out of reach. Thirty-four percent say it used to be true but is not anymore. Another 17% say it was never really as achievable as advertised. Combined, 51% of voters hold a skeptical view of the American Dream. Twenty-nine percent say it is still real and they have seen or lived it, and 18% say it is real but only for some.

The generational divide on this question is one of the widest in the survey. Only 13% of voters aged 18 to 34 say they have seen or lived the American Dream, compared to 38% of those 65 and older. Party affiliation also shapes these views: 58% of Republicans say they have seen or lived it, while 6% of Democrats say the same.

Some older voters who have lived the American Dream say they believe it has not carried forward:

“I lived it but unfortunately most who came after me. I came from a solid middle class family, graduated from college, got married at 25, bought a condo immediately, and a first house two years later. We both worked. I’d say we had the American dream.”

Woman, 65+, Democrat

For many younger voters, the American Dream registers less as a realistic aspiration and more as an unattainable goal:

“It used to mean the opportunity to better your situation with hard work. You used to be able to genuinely achieve your dreams. But the ladder got pulled up generations ago, and now it’s too expensive to do anything.”

Man, 18 to 34, Democrat

Not all younger voters share that skepticism. Some maintain that persistence and personal responsibility remain the path forward:

“The idea that if you continue working hard, making the right connections and decisions, and persist… you and/or your children and family can achieve success and move upward financially and socially.”

Man, 18 to 34, Republican

Harder Than Their Parents

Whatever voters think of the American Dream as a concept, most agree that reaching the milestones associated with it is harder today than it was for the previous generation. Eighty-six percent say buying a home is harder now than it was for their parents, 82% say affording healthcare is harder, 80% say feeling financially secure by age 40 is harder, and 77% say saving for retirement is harder.

These views cross party lines more than almost any other finding in the survey. Among Republicans, 76% say buying a home is harder today; among Democrats, 95% say the same. Younger voters feel the generational gap most sharply: 96% of 18-to-34-year-olds say buying a home is harder, and 87% say the same about feeling financially secure by age 40.

Older voters describe the shift:

“The American dream I grew up with is dead. Today’s young people can’t afford housing or cost of living expenses that I handled just fine 40 years ago.”

Woman, 65+, Independent

For voters in the middle generation, the comparison feels more personal:

“It used to buy a home and build a family on one income. No longer the dream.”

Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

What Is Standing in the Way

When asked to name the single biggest barrier preventing them from making major financial purchases, 44% of voters point to prices being too high and not coming down. Interest rates rank second at 22%.

Younger voters feel this squeeze more acutely. Among those aged 18 to 34, 59% cite high prices as their biggest barrier. Interest rates rank second at 30%. 37% say they do not have enough saved, more than double the rate seen among older voters.

For many voters, the American Dream has been reduced to a basic solvency question:

“Being able to live on a single income while also being able to save for retirement, buy a house, buy a car, save for kids’ college. Not drown in medical debt.”

Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

Others frame the problem as a structural mismatch between wages and prices:

“If someone is working a full time job, they should be able to afford basics. This is not the case currently. Prices of housing and goods have far outpaced salaries for many.”

Woman, 35 to 49, Democrat

Who Voters Hold Responsible

Voters spread responsibility across several factors. Companies raising prices beyond their costs, excessive government spending, and wages not keeping up with the cost of living rank highest among options offered: 65% say each has contributed “a great deal” to the “affordability crisis.” Trade tariffs and import costs are seen as a driver by 49% of voters.

When it comes to the current and previous administrations, more voters hold the Trump administration responsible than the Biden administration. Forty-nine percent say Trump administration policies have contributed “a great deal,” compared to 36% who say the same about Biden’s. Party lines are sharp here: 84% of Democrats say Trump policies have contributed a great deal, while 73% of Republicans say the same about Biden’s.

The consequences voters describe are not abstract. For some, the question is whether retirement remains possible at all:

“It used to mean I could retire at 65. Now I will end up dying at my job.”

Woman, 50 to 64, Republican

What Voters Want Politically

Affordability sits near the top of voters’ political priorities. When asked to choose their three most important issues, voters rank government corruption first (37%) and inflation and the high cost of goods second (29%). The high cost of healthcare ranks fourth at 20%, and housing costs rank at 15% overall. Among voters aged 18 to 34, housing jumps to 29%, placing it among their top concerns at roughly double the overall rate.

Change Research conducted this survey of 2,702 registered voters from April 3 to 7, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Why Voters Support or Oppose Military Action in Iran

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 2,702 registered voters, conducted April 3–7, 2026, gave supporters and opponents of the Iran conflict the opportunity to explain their positions in their own words. Their responses reveal two largely separate universes of reasoning, shaped by distinct emotional registers, different relationships to authority, and different interpretations of what the conflict is fundamentally about.

These findings were among the topics discussed during a Change Research webinar on April 9, 2026. Watch the full recording here. The conversation was led by Melanie Phillips, Head of Analyst Team, and Stephen Clermont, Head of Polling.

Why Supporters Back Military Action

Supporters of military action most commonly cite the nuclear threat from IranThis concern appears across nearly every age group and demographic. Concerns about Iran’s nuclear program are frequently tied to the Strait of Hormuz and its role in global trade.

A second dominant theme is historical: many supporters frame the conflict as a long-overdue response to Iranian hostility beginning in 1979, often citing 47 years of brutal governance. A third thread, particularly prominent among women supporters, centers on the Iranian people themselves, with many framing the conflict as an opportunity for liberation from an oppressive regime.

“Iran having nukes is a danger to the whole world and their ability to control the Strait of Hormuz could give them control over global trade if they have that power.” Man, 18 to 34, Republican

“Iran was admittedly on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. They had breached the terms of the agreement with Obama.” Man, 65+, Republican

“For nearly 50 years the Iranian regime has cried ‘death to America.’ They are the number one sponsors of terror and have committed mass murder of their own people.” Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

Concerns Among Supporters

Among supporters of the US-Israeli actions in Iran, the most commonly expressed fear is a prolonged war. References to Iraq and Afghanistan appear frequently, and many supporters set explicit timelines, describing months as acceptable and years as disqualifying. The word “drag” surfaces repeatedly. A second anxiety runs in the opposite direction: that the United States will pull out too soon and leave the regime intact, repeating what many describe as a historical pattern of incomplete action. These two concerns coexist in many responses, reflecting a desire for a mission that is both swift and thorough.

A third concern among war supporters centers on ground troops. Many supporters draw a hard line at a ground invasion, treating air and naval strikes as acceptable while viewing boots on the ground as a threshold that would shift their position.

“No troops on ground without congressional approval and a clearly defined mission.” Man, 50 to 64, Republican

“Boots on the ground, length of conflict, no clear exit ramp.” Woman, 35 to 49, Republican

“My concern is that Congress will force an end to the operation before it is concluded, leaving the regime to rise again.” Man, 18 to 34, Republican

The Domestic Retaliation Concern

One worry exists among both MAGA and non-MAGA Republican voters: the threat of retaliation on American soil. In the quantitative data, 54% of MAGA supporters express concern about domestic attacks tied to the Iran conflict, including worries about Iranian-linked actors who may have entered the country in prior years. In the open-ended responses, this concern surfaces repeatedly and carries a distinct emotional weight, blending national security anxiety with opposition to immigration.

The survey tested several messages for their ability to generate concern among conflict supporters. Messaging framing the conflict as a risk factor for domestic terrorism scores highest of all frames tested, above economic pain messaging and above historical parallels to Iraq and Afghanistan.

What Would Change Supporters’ Minds

Among supporters asked what could change their position, the most common response by a wide margin is some version of “nothing.” Among those who offer conditions under which they might withdraw support, a prolonged conflict is the most frequently named threshold. Many set explicit time limits, and several specifically flag a ground troop deployment as the scenario that would shift their support to opposition.

Why Opponents Oppose

Among opponents who explained their reasoning, several themes appear with particular frequency. The most common is the absence of congressional authorization, with a large share of respondents pointing to the constitutional requirement that Congress declare war and describing the administration’s decision to act unilaterally as illegal or illegitimate. Closely related is the view that Iran did not pose an imminent threat to the United States at the time the conflict began.

A third recurring theme is the abandoned diplomatic framework: many opponents cite the Obama-era nuclear agreement, arguing that the conflict would not have occurred had that deal remained intact. A fourth thread, running through a notable share of responses, particularly among older Democrats, draws explicit parallels to prior U.S. military interventions in the Middle East. References to Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, and the 1953 U.S.-backed overthrow of the Iranian government appear across these responses. A fifth theme, concentrated among opponents and almost entirely absent from supporter responses, frames the conflict as a deliberate distraction from unrelated domestic political controversy.

Young women express opposition with particular frequency and intensity. Their responses are among the most structured in the dataset, often listing numbered reasons, citing historical precedents, and invoking constitutional or international law. Older men among opponents tend toward briefer, more categorical responses.

“No plan and Congress did not vote on it.” Woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

“If Trump had left the Obama deal in place, this never would have happened. Trump allowed himself to be goaded into it.” Woman, 50 to 64, Pure Independent

“It seems overly aggressive and costing [sic] the country billions that could be put towards more pressing domestic needs that should be addressed.” Woman, 18 to 34, Democrat

“1. It was illegal, as Congress did not provide authorization. 2. It was unprovoked. 3. The Western world is not united in this action.” Man, 18 to 34, Democrat

“Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq.” Woman, 65+, Democrat

What Would Change Opponents’ Minds

Among opponents asked what could change their position, the overwhelming response is also “nothing.” Among the smaller share who offer conditions, a direct attack on American soil is the most frequently named reason they might change their minds, though many add qualifications suggesting that even that scenario would not be sufficient given their (usually negative) assessments of the current administration’s credibility. Congressional authorization, clear evidence of an imminent threat, and allied coalition support appear as conditions among a smaller group of opponents.

“If they attacked us or an ally first, then I’d support it, but that hasn’t happened.” Man, 35 to 49, Democrat

On both sides of the conflict, a large majority say their position is fixed. Where supporters and opponents diverge is in why they hold that view and what, if anything, they identify as the threshold for reconsideration.

Change Research conducted this survey of 2,702 registered voters nationwide from April 3–7, 2026. Open-ended questions were asked separately of supporters and opponents of the Iran conflict. Respondents were recruited via dynamic online sampling to reflect the national voter population. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education, urbanicity, and 2024 presidential vote. The modeled margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points.

Americans Feel Climate Events, Split on Federal Action

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

As Earth Day turns 56 this April, a Change Research national survey of 1,541 registered voters conducted March 8-12, 2026, finds that most Americans have a personal connection to the environment. Two-thirds say they experienced at least one extreme weather event in the past year, and nearly half say federal action on climate change matters to them.

The survey arrives as Earth Day 2026 marks another year of shifting federal climate priorities. The Trump administration has halted carbon dioxide monitoring at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and withdrawn from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading international scientific body for climate assessment.

Americans Are Experiencing Climate Events Firsthand

Extreme heat or heat waves top the list of extreme weather events survey respondents experienced in the past year at 35%, followed by poor air quality at 30%, power outages caused by extreme weather at 25%, severe storms at 24%, and wildfires or smoke at 22%. Roughly one in five dealt with drought or water restrictions, and 12% experienced flooding or water damage.

Younger voters report the effects more often. Those ages 18 to 34 report experiencing extreme heat at 50%, compared to 26% among voters 65 and older.

Environmental Concerns Are Broad

When the survey asked voters to identify their single biggest environmental concern, no single issue dominated. Worsening extreme weather events leads at 23%, followed closely by loss of natural habitats and wildlife at 21%. Pollution from plastics and waste comes in at 15%, drinking water quality at 13%, and air pollution and its health effects at 11%.

Not everyone registers environmental concern. About 11% of voters say none of the listed issues concerns them. That share rises to 20% among Republicans, compared to 2% of Democrats.

A Divided Picture on Federal Action

Where Americans diverge is on what the federal government should do about it. Roughly half of voters surveyed (47%) say it is extremely or very important that the federal government take action on climate change, while 38% say it is not very or not at all important.

Partisan gaps are wide. Among Democrats, 86% rate federal climate action as extremely or very important. Among Republicans, 10% say the same. Voters ages 18 to 34 are the most likely age group to prioritize federal action, at 56% extremely or very important.

Methodology

Change Research surveyed 1,541 registered voters online from March 8 to 12, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Full crosstabs, including breakouts by party, gender, age, race, and military family status, are available through the Change Research Data Portal.

The Political Climate Is Americans' Top Stressor

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,541 registered voters, conducted March 8-12, 2026, finds that 30% of Americans name the political situation as the single biggest source of stress in their lives right now, more than name money, health, or work.

April marks National Stress Awareness Month, observed every year since 1992 as a national effort to raise awareness about the causes and effects of stress. This year, our data puts numbers to what many Americans are feeling. The survey finds a country with many negative emotions, and increasingly they point to its politics as the source.

The National Mood

When we asked voters to describe how they feel about the country right now, frustrated (17%) and exhausted (13%) topped the list, followed by angry (12%) and anxious (7%). Sixteen percent say they feel hopeful, and 11% say they are proud. Stressed was chosen by 9% of voters overall.

Women are more likely than men to describe their mood as exhausted (15% vs. 11%). The feeling is sharpest among younger voters; 22% of voters 18 to 34 chose exhausted, compared to just 5% of those 65 and older. Democrats are also more likely to say they are exhausted (20%) than Republicans (6%).

What’s Driving the Stress

The political situation was the largest source of stress cited by survey respondents. Thirty percent of voters name it as their single biggest stressor, well ahead of money and finances (22%), the state of the world or global events (12%), and physical or mental health (11%). Work and career (6%), family and relationships (5%), and housing (3%) round out the list. Eleven percent say none of these apply.

Forty-two percent of Democrats name the political situation as their top stressor, compared to 19% of Republicans. Age also plays a role; 43% of voters 65 and older point to politics, the highest of any age group.

Financial stress falls harder on voters in their prime working and family-raising years. Thirty-one percent of 35 to 49 year olds name money and finances as their top stressor, compared to 14% of those 65 and older. For younger voters, work and career registers at higher rates as well; 15% of 18 to 34 year olds name it as their top concern, versus 6% overall.

For many voters, going offline can help. Nearly a third (32%) say they deleted or took a break from at least one social media platform for their mental health in the past year. Nine percent say they have not gone back, and 23% say they eventually returned. Another 31% say they have thought about stepping away but have not acted yet. A third (33%) say social media has no effect on their mental health.

Younger voters are most likely to have taken a break. Fifteen percent of 18 to 34 year olds say they stepped away from a platform and stayed away, compared to 7% of those 65 and older.

Methodology

Voters Voice Frustration and Financial Strain

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

As tax season arrives in America, a new national poll from Change Research reveals widespread negative sentiment. Voters are pessimistic about the economy and frustrated by the cost of living. They’re starting to file their tax returns with a mix of annoyance, stress, and dread. Compounding this, significant recent tax policy changes, such as “no tax on tips and overtime,” are shrouded in confusion, with most Americans uncertain about the personal impact of these reforms.

The survey of 1,741 voters, conducted from February 5-18, 2026, portrays a nation grappling with economic unease, polarized along political lines regarding accountability, and primarily planning to use any tax refund for essential survival rather than discretionary spending.

The Economy: Still Not Working for Most People

The economic mood among American voters remains firmly negative. Just 33% rate the economy as excellent or good, while nearly two-thirds (65%) say it’s not so good or poor.

The partisan divide is enormous. 64% of Republicans rate the economy positively, compared to just 5% of Democrats and 19% of independents. But the negativity isn’t limited to partisanship. Among younger voters (18-34), 74% rate the economy as poor, the highest of any age group. Eighty-five percent of Black voters are negative about the economy, and non-college educated voters sit at 70%.

When asked whether the economy is getting better or worse compared to a year ago, 55% say worse, versus 38% who say better. Partisan lenses shape perception here: 75% of Republicans say the economy is improving, while 92% of Democrats say it’s declining.

Perhaps most notable: 46% of voters believe the U.S. is currently in a recession (contrary to the economic definition), compared to 42% who say it’s not. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and 55% of independents believe the U.S. is in a recession, versus just 21% of Republicans. The perception gap is significant, even if the technical indicators don’t align with much of the public opinion.

Inflation and the Cost of Living: The Issue That Won’t Let Go

If there’s one aspect of the economy Americans agree on across party lines, it’s that the cost of living is brutal. Eighty-four percent of voters rate the cost of living as poor or not so good, making it the worst-rated economic indicator in the survey. Just 15% say it’s excellent or good.

Republicans, who tend to view the broader economy more favorably, rate the cost of living negatively: 70% say it’s poor or not so good. Among Democrats, 96% rate the cost of living negatively. Among independents, 91%. Younger voters (18-34) and those aged 35-49 are particularly negative on the cost of living at 88% and 89% respectively, suggesting that high costs hitting working-age Americans the hardest.

Inflation is similarly concerning: 76% rate the level of inflation as poor, with just 21% saying it’s excellent or good. The official Consumer Price Index showed inflation easing to 2.4% annually as of January 2026, but voters are still feeling the accumulated weight of price increases from the past several years. For most people, this isn’t about the short-term rate of change. It’s about the fact that groceries, rent, and insurance cost what they cost, and none of that has come back down.

There is one bright spot: 59% rate their personal financial situation as excellent or good. But there is a range across demographics. Among voters under 35, 50% rate their financial situation as positive. Among those making under $50k, only 31% say their finances are in good shape. And Black voters are more negative, with 57% saying their finances are poor or not so good compared to 40% who say they’re doing well.

Tax Season: A Mood of Annoyance and Anxiety

When voters are asked what emotions come closest to describing how they feel about filing taxes this year, the top responses are: annoyed (32%), frustrated (25%), stressed (23%), indifferent (20%), and anxious (20%). Barely anyone is feeling hopeful (13%) or relieved (6%).

Younger voters (18-34) are significantly more likely to report stress and feeling overwhelmed compared to older Americans. Voters aged 35-49 lead on frustration. Those over 65 are the most likely to say they feel indifferent, or that none of these emotions apply to them. In short: on average, the younger you are, the worse tax season feels.

When asked what makes filing taxes hard, the top answers cluster around three themes: worrying about money (21%), the sense that the system feels unfair (20%), and that the rules are too complicated (18%). Fear of making a mistake also ranks high at 13%.

Refunds and Realities: Survival Over Splurging

About 36% of voters expect to get a tax refund this year, while 19% expect to owe money and 15% expect to break even.

The top three uses: put it in savings (29%), pay down debt (24%), and catch up on bills (21%). Just 3% plan to spend it on something fun. The tax refund, for most Americans, is not a windfall. It’s a lifeline.

Among those who expect to owe money, the news is more sobering. 51% say it will be difficult to pay, including 24% who say it will be very difficult. The burden falls unevenly: 77% of Black voters who owe money say it will be difficult, and voters under 35 who owe are significantly more likely to say it will be very difficult (33%) than older cohorts. Lower-income voters and non-college educated voters also report greater difficulty.

”No Tax on Tips”: Popular Slogan, Widespread Confusion

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in 2025, introduced a tax deduction of up to $25,000 for qualifying tipped income, one of the most talked-about provisions of the 2025 tax overhaul. But when voters are asked what “no tax on tips and overtime” actually means, the results reveal significant confusion.

Thirty-six percent believe the policy means everyone who earns tips or overtime pays no federal income tax on that income, with no limits. Another third, 35%, correctly understand that the tax break comes with rules and limits. Another 11% think only certain types of tips or jobs qualify, and 18% say they haven’t followed the issue closely enough to know.

In reality, the deduction is capped at $25,000, phases out for taxpayers earning more than $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers), applies only to certain qualifying occupations, and still leaves workers on the hook for Social Security and Medicare taxes. The gap between the slogan and the substance is wide, and it suggests that a large share of Americans filing their taxes this spring may be in for a surprise, whether positive or disappointing, when they see what the deduction actually delivers.

The confusion doesn’t break neatly along party lines. Republicans are slightly more likely to believe the policy is universal and unlimited (42%) compared to Democrats (29%), but misunderstanding is widespread across every demographic group. Younger voters and those without a college degree are more likely to say they haven’t followed it closely.

Trump Accounts: Interest is High, But So Are the Question Marks

Another provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill creates “Trump Accounts,” government-funded savings and investment accounts for eligible children that start with a $1,000 deposit. When asked whether they’d open one for an eligible child, 54% of voters say they’d be likely to do so, including 39% who say they’d be very likely. Just 22% say they’d be unlikely.

The partisan gap is massive. 83% of Republicans say they’d likely open one, compared to just 27% of Democrats. Among independents, 43% say they’d be likely to open an account.

Trump and the Economy: Underwater on Every Metric

President Trump’s overall job approval stands at 43% approve versus 55% disapprove. But his economic approval numbers are worse than his overall approval numbers. On the economy broadly, just 41% approve of his handling, while 55% disapprove. On tariffs, 39% approve while 55% disapprove. And on inflation and the cost of living, the issue voters say matters most to them, only 37% approve, while 59% disapprove.

Trump’s approval on inflation is particularly striking. Even among independents, just 22% approve of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, versus 69% who disapprove. Among voters under 35, only 27% approve compared to 66% who disapprove. Among Hispanic voters, disapproval of his handling of inflation hits 85%. Among voters making under $50k, 76% disapprove. Many of the demographic groups most squeezed by rising costs are also most critical of Trump’s performance on the issue.

Immigration remains Trump’s strongest issue, with 45% approving versus 52% disapproving. He’s also slightly more popular on his handling of deportations, with 44% approving 54% disapproving. But on every economic indicator polled, more voters disapprove than approve. And its voters say that economic issues are high on their list of important issues.

Top Issues: It’s the Economy (and Corruption)

When asked to pick their top three most important political issues, voters’ priorities reflect the broader mood: government corruption leads at 34%, followed by inflation and the high cost of goods at 28%, immigration and border security at 21%, and the high cost of healthcare at 20%.

Cost-of-living issues make up much of the top of the list. If you combine inflation, healthcare costs, housing costs (16%), and insurance costs (16%), the high cost of everything is the defining issue of this electorate by a wide margin. Government corruption is the top single issue, and ranks as the top issue across both parties: 36% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans cite it. However, voters likely have very different ideas about what that corruption entails.

Housing costs are disproportionately important to younger voters (27% among 18-34) and Hispanic voters (21%), while ensuring election integrity resonates more with older voters (24% among 65+) and Republican voters (22%). Racial equity and justice is the highest-priority issue for Black voters at 34%.

Looking Ahead: Pessimism Holds

When asked whether things will be better or worse a year from now, pessimism wins on every measure we tested. On the U.S. economy: 46% say things will be worse in a year, just 32% say better. On the price of everyday goods: 51% say worse, just 26% say better.

That last number is perhaps the most telling. Half the country expects prices to keep climbing. Consumer sentiment has been hovering near decade lows, and the Federal Reserve is still balancing rate decisions against concern about inflationary pressures.

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 1,741 respondents nationally from February 5-18, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points.

Election Confidence Varies Widely by Region

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,541 registered voters, conducted March 8 to 12, 2026, finds that where Americans live shapes how they feel about elections. Confidence in vote-counting, perceptions of redistricting, and the practical burden of proposed citizenship documentation requirements all vary meaningfully across the Midwest, Northeast, South, and West.

The survey was conducted against the backdrop of active debate in Washington over election administration. In February 2026, the House passed the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. The bill has not yet been taken up by the Senate. At the same time, questions about redistricting and voter access remain active across several states heading into the November midterms.

Regional Confidence in State Elections

Confidence in how a voter’s own state will count ballots is relatively strong across all four regions, but the Midwest leads the pack. Sixty-three percent of Midwestern voters say they are confident that votes in November’s congressional election will be counted accurately in their state, compared to 59% in the South, 56% in the Northeast, and 54% in the West.

The gap widens when voters are asked about the national picture. The Northeast stands out as the most skeptical region: 62% of Northeastern voters say they are not confident that votes will be counted accurately nationwide. The Midwest is more evenly split on the national question, with 48% not confident. The South sits at 53% not confident, and the West at 44%.

Confidence in Specific Places

When we ask voters about confidence in specific types of communities, the regional picture sharpens considerably. The South expresses the highest confidence in rural vote counts of any region, with 81% confident in those communities. The Northeast (74%) and West (66%) follow, with the Midwest at 61%.

Big-city confidence tells a different story. The Northeast (29% confident, 66% not confident) and South (32% confident, 65% not confident) are the most skeptical about vote counts in cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. The divergence is striking, given that those regions have very different political characters: skepticism in the Northeast likely reflects partisan distrust from conservative voters, while skepticism in the South reflects similar dynamics among a largely Republican electorate outside major metros. The Midwest is more evenly split on big-city confidence, with 42% confident and 52% not confident.

Confidence in the vote counts of blue-leaning states like Massachusetts, New York, Illinois, and California follows predictable partisan lines across geography. Suburban (55% confident) and urban (55% confident) voters are notably more trusting of those states than rural voters (42% confident). The Northeast itself shows only 36% confidence in those states, likely reflecting the concentration of Republicans and independents within the region’s sample.

Personal Voting Confidence by Region

We also asked voters how confident they feel about their own ability to cast a ballot in November compared to previous elections. The South stands apart here: 34% of Southern voters say they feel more confident than before, the highest share of any region. That figure compares to 26% in both the Midwest and West, and just 19% in the Northeast.

At the same time, less confidence is concentrated in the Northeast and West. Eighteen percent of Western voters and 17% of Northeastern voters say they feel less confident than before, compared to 13% in the South.

Citizenship Documentation Requirements

We described proposed requirements under which voters would need to provide documents like a passport or birth certificate when registering to vote, with names required to exactly match current ID. Given those conditions, the Midwest shows the highest rate of reported difficulty. A combined 23% of Midwestern voters say it would be somewhat or very difficult to provide what is needed, compared to 19% in both the Northeast and South, and 16% in the West.

The West’s lower difficulty rate may partly reflect a higher share of voters who already have the required documentation readily available. Still, at the regional level, Midwestern voters are notably more likely to say the requirements would pose practical challenges.

Redistricting Perceptions

We asked voters whether they believe the congressional district they currently live in was drawn fairly, regardless of which party they support. The Midwest leads, with 53% saying yes, followed by the Northeast (44%), the West (42%), and the South (38%).

Outright skepticism is highest in the Northeast and West, where 31% and 30% of voters respectively say their district was not drawn fairly. The South tells a slightly different story: while only 38% say their district was drawn fairly, a large share (36%) are not sure, suggesting unfamiliarity with redistricting as much as distrust of it.

By community type, urban voters are the most skeptical of redistricting outcomes. Thirty-two percent of urban voters say their district was not drawn fairly, compared to 25% of both suburban and rural voters.

What Voters Are Focused On

Regional variation is also evident in the issues voters name as politically most important. Government corruption is one of the top issues in every region, but it is most prominent in the Northeast, where 43% of voters name it as one of their top three priorities. The South is close behind at 39%, followed by the Midwest (38%) and the West (34%).

Immigration and border security is a higher priority in the Northeast, South, and West (each at 24%) than in the Midwest (18%). Election integrity as a standalone issue is cited by a higher share of Midwestern voters (21%) than in other regions, where it ranges from 15% to 16%.

By community type, housing costs track closely with density: suburban voters are most likely to name housing as a top issue (21%), compared to 14% of rural voters and 14% of urban voters. The cost of living and inflation remain broadly distributed concerns across all community types.

The regional variation documented here reflects a wider national picture of uneven confidence in elections. For topline results and demographic breakdowns across the full sample, see the companion national analysis here.

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 1,541 registered voters from March 8 to 12, 2026. The modeled margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Regional subgroup samples are smaller; the Northeast (n=124), South (n=87), and West (n=139) carry wider margins of error and findings for those groups should be interpreted with appropriate caution.

Voters Express Concerns About Election Integrity Ahead of November

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,541 registered voters, conducted March 8 to 12, 2026, finds that voters express significantly more confidence in their own state’s vote-counting than in the national picture; that proposed citizenship documentation requirements for voter registration would pose meaningful challenges for a notable share of voters; and that fewer than half believe their congressional district was drawn fairly.

In February 2026, the House passed the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, to register to vote in federal elections. The bill has not yet passed the Senate. Election security and administration remain active points of national debate heading into the November midterms.

State vs. National Confidence

Voters express more confidence in their own state’s vote-counting than in the broader national picture. Sixty-two percent say they are confident that votes in the November congressional election will be counted accurately in their state, compared to 33% who are not. Nationwide confidence is lower: 46% are confident that votes will be counted accurately across the country, while 49% are not.

The gap between state-level and national confidence holds across party lines, though the underlying numbers diverge sharply. Democrats are more confident about their state’s count (72%) than Republicans are about theirs (54%). At the national level, that split widens further: 57% of Democrats express confidence in the national count, compared to just 36% of Republicans.

Confidence by Geography

When we ask about specific places, confidence tracks closely with which party controls them. Rural communities see the highest confidence of any geography we tested: 64% of voters say they trust those votes will be counted accurately. Republicans drive that number strongly, with 81% expressing confidence in rural vote counts, compared to 56% of Democrats.

The pattern reverses sharply for urban areas. Overall, 43% of voters are confident about vote counts in big cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, while 51% are not. Among Democrats, 71% are confident in those cities. Among Republicans, just 14% are.

Red-leaning and blue-leaning states show the same dynamic. For states like Alabama, Texas, Idaho, Georgia, and Kansas, 61% of Republicans express confidence compared to 37% of Democrats. For states like Massachusetts, New York, Illinois, and California, 81% of Democrats are confident compared to 13% of Republicans.

Why Some Feel Less Confident

Among voters who say they feel less confident about their ability to cast a vote compared to previous elections, the concerns are wide-ranging. Eighty-five percent of that group cite concerns about federal government involvement in elections, and 78% cite concerns that eligible voters will be prevented from voting. Fifty-two percent point to threats or intimidation they have seen or heard about, and 40% cite confusion about voter registration requirements. About three in ten cite changes to voting laws in their state.

Why Others Remain Confident

Among voters who feel about as confident or more confident than before, familiarity with the process is the top driver. Forty-eight percent say they know what to expect and feel comfortable with how voting works. Thirty-nine percent say they trust how elections are run in their state, and 28% say they have confidence in their local election officials. About one in five say they have seen efforts to make elections more secure. A similar share say they plan to vote early or by mail to avoid any potential issues.

Citizenship Documentation Requirements

We described proposed requirements under which voters would need to provide documents like a passport or birth certificate when registering to vote, with names required to exactly match current ID. Voters whose names have changed would need to obtain official records from the state where that change took place. Given those conditions, 63% of voters say it would be very easy for them to provide what is needed, and 14% say it would be somewhat easy but would take time and effort. A combined 20% say it would be somewhat or very difficult.

The burden falls unevenly across demographic groups. Women are more likely to report difficulty than men: 23% of women say they would face some degree of difficulty with the requirements, compared to 15% of men. Lower-income voters also report more difficulty. Among voters earning under $50,000, 56% say compliance would be very easy, noticeably lower than the 70% among voters earning $150,000 or more. Younger voters are the most likely to report difficulty of any age group, with voters 18 to 34 showing the highest rates of uncertainty about whether they could meet the documentation requirements quickly.

Perceptions of Redistricting

We also asked voters whether they believe the congressional district they currently live in was drawn fairly. Forty-two percent say yes, 26% say no, and 31% are not sure. A majority of voters either question the fairness of their district lines or lack enough information to say.

Younger voters are the most skeptical: only 33% of voters aged 18 to 34 believe their district was drawn fairly, compared to 50% of voters 65 and older. Men are more likely than women to say yes, with 47% of men believing their district was drawn fairly, compared to 38% of women. Across party lines, there is notable agreement. Forty-one percent of Democrats, 45% of Republicans, and 39% of independents believe their district lines are fair, suggesting skepticism about redistricting is not confined to one side.

These findings also vary considerably by where voters live. A companion analysis breaks down confidence in vote-counting, redistricting perceptions, and documentation burden by region and community type. Read the regional breakdown here.

Methodology

Voter Views on AI Companies and Military Use

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,541 registered voters, conducted from March 8 to 12, 2026, finds that a plurality of voters support AI companies’ autonomy to set limits on military use of their technology, and that nearly half side with Anthropic over Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the ongoing dispute over access to its AI models.

In late February 2026, Secretary Hegseth gave Anthropic a deadline to grant the military broader access to its Claude AI models or face losing its $200 million Pentagon contract. Anthropic declined, holding to two conditions: that its technology not be used for fully autonomous weapons, and that it not be used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans. By early March, the Pentagon formally designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, and Anthropic filed suit in federal court challenging the designation. The legal dispute is ongoing.

Company Rights and Military Access

When we asked voters what should happen if a private AI company does not want the U.S. military to use its AI software for certain purposes, 42% say the company should have the right to decide how its technology is used, regardless of what the military wants. Another 23% say the company and military should work out a compromise together. Seventeen percent say the military should be able to use any important U.S. made technology, whether the company agrees or not.

Women are more likely than men to support company autonomy. Forty-eight percent of women say the company should decide, compared to 36% of men.

The Anthropic Dispute

When we described the specific dispute, explaining that Anthropic’s rules limit military uses of its technology to prevent misuse, while Secretary Hegseth has said AI companies have a duty to support national defense without conditions, 47% of voters aligned with Anthropic at the time of this survey. Thirty-one percent aligned with Hegseth and the Department of War, and 21% were not sure.

Support for Anthropic’s position holds across party lines, though the degree varies. Among Independents, 60% were aligned with Anthropic and 17% were aligned with the Department of War and Secretary Hegseth. Democrats align with Anthropic at 78%, with 4% aligned with Hegseth. Among Republicans, the positions reverse: 62% side with Hegseth and 14% with Anthropic.

Among voters from military families, Anthropic holds a plurality: 44% are aligned with Anthropic and 35% with Hegseth, with 19% not sure.

What Voters Say

Concern about AI use in military contexts appears across both Trump and Harris voters. Several respondents describe the integration of AI and the military as carrying serious long-term risks:

“Certain technologies should not be researched. I cannot stop it from happening, but the General AI race feels like a nuclear arms race… No one will win…”

White man, 18-34, Independent

“I worry about the military using AI. I worry about using AI for a lot of things.”

White woman, 35-49, Republican

Calls for congressional oversight come up frequently among respondents who chose ‘something else’:

“Congress should pass regulations that determine the circumstances for when and how the government can use AI companies’ technology.”

Hispanic/Latino Man, 18-34, Independent

Among Trump voters who commented, a common line of thinking is that if a company accepts government funding or signs a defense contract, it should allow the government to use its technology freely:

“Anthropic accepted $200 million of US funding, they can’t say afterwards how this technology is to be used.”

White man, 50-64, Independent

“If there is a contract for use then too bad. You don’t get to dictate foreign policy. It’s like a company who makes forks saying you aren’t allowed to use them right handed.”

White man, 35-49, Republican

Methodology

Voters Question U.S. Military Action in Iran

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,541 registered voters, conducted March 8–12, 2026, finds majority opposition to U.S. military action in Iran, alongside broad concerns about escalation, lack of congressional oversight, and the administration’s communication of its objectives.

The survey was fielded during the first two weeks of Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.–Israeli military campaign that began on February 28, 2026. By the time the poll finished fielding, American and Israeli strikes had killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials, Iran had retaliated both militarily and by blocking access to the Strait of Hormus, and oil prices had risen more than 40%.

Support and Opposition

Forty-one percent of voters supported the U.S. decision to take military action against Iran at the time of this survey, including 30% who strongly supported it. Fifty-four percent opposed the action, with 45% strongly opposed.

Support was higher among men (50%) than women (33%). Republicans backed the action broadly (85% in support, 12% opposed), while Democrats opposed it at a similar rate (92% opposed, 3% in support).

For comparison, a Pew Research Center poll in October 2002 found 55% of Americans in favor of military action in Iraq to end Saddam Hussein’s rule, roughly 14 points higher than support for the Iran action in this survey.

Among those who supported the action, stated reasons center on Iran’s nuclear program and decades of unresolved tensions with the regime.

“It is a chance to free the people of Iran from persecution, and strengthens the security of the USA.”

— White man, 50 to 64, Independent

“The people of Iran needed change already, let’s hope and pray. They can get it right.”

— Hispanic/Latino man, 50 to 64, Republican

Half of the respondents were asked whether they believed Iran was an immediate threat to the United States before the decision to take military action. In that group, 53% said Iran was not an immediate threat at that point, 37% said it was, and 10% were unsure.

The other half were asked whether Iran is currently an immediate threat: 42% say yes, 44% say no, and 14% are unsure.

Congressional Authorization

Fifty-seven percent of voters say the President should have to get approval from Congress before continuing military action in Iran. Thirty-seven percent say the President should be able to make that decision on his own.

Support for congressional authorization was highest among Democrats (94%) and independents (75%). Among Republicans, 77% say the President should be able to decide on his own, while 15% say Congress should have to approve.

Administration Communication

Fifty-eight percent of voters say the Trump Administration has not explained clearly enough what it is trying to achieve with military action in Iran. Thirty-five percent say it has explained its goals clearly enough.

Democrats (93%) and independents (75%) are far more likely to say the goals have not been explained clearly. Among Republicans, 72% say the administration has explained clearly and 19% say it has not.

In October 2002, a Pew Research Center poll asked the same question about President Bush and the Iraq conflict. At the time, 48% said he had explained clearly, and 45% said he had not. The current numbers show a notably wider gap, with the “not explained clearly” share running 23 points higher for the Iran conflict.

Among voters who oppose the action, the survey asked what could change their minds. A large share say nothing would. Among those who describe a potential threshold, the most common conditions are verifiable evidence of an imminent direct threat to the United States — distinct from a threat to U.S. allies — and prior congressional authorization.

“Nothing. The administration’s story has changed numerous times in the past week.”

— White woman, 50 to 64, Democrat

“Legitimate proof they’re actually close to having nuclear weapons. It’s been 40 years Netanyahu has claimed that Iran was weeks away from having them with no proof.”

— White man, 35 to 49, Republican

When asked whose interests are most served by U.S. military action in Iran, 26% of voters say Israel, 24% say Donald Trump, and 18% say the American people. Fourteen percent say the people of Iran benefit most, and 5% point to the defense industry.

Escalation Concerns

Seventy-two percent of voters express concern that military action in Iran could lead to a larger war involving other countries in the Middle East, including 48% who are very concerned. Women (78%) are somewhat more likely than men (66%) to express concern.

Even among voters who support the action, concern about escalation and the conflict’s duration is widespread.

“That we will end up in a world war.”

— White woman, 18 to 34, Republican

“Lives and safety of our troops.”

— White woman, 65+, Republican

Seventy-two percent of voters oppose sending U.S. ground troops into Iran, including 56% who strongly oppose it. Twenty-one percent support a ground deployment. Opposition is consistent across genders, with both women and men at 72%. Among Republicans, 48% oppose a ground deployment and 43% support it.

Looking ahead one year, 47% of voters say the U.S. will be less safe as a result of military action in Iran, compared to 35% who say it will be safer and 13% who expect things to remain about the same. Women are more pessimistic (53% less safe, 28% safer) than men (41% less safe, 42% safer).

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 1,541 registered voters from March 8–12, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Americans Feel AI's Impact and Worry About the Future

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 05:00:00 GMT

A Change Research national survey of 1,741 voters, conducted from February 5-18, 2026, finds that the transformation of American life by artificial intelligence is well underway for most. A majority of respondents (58%) report that AI has made their life “noticeably different” compared to just a few years ago. This includes 23% who describe the change as “very different” and 36% who say things are “somewhat different.” Conversely, only a little over a third of voters (34%) state that AI has not yet significantly altered their daily experience.

This tracks with broader national trends. As ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini have grown in both capabilities and usage, AI-related layoffs have been in the news, and the technology has woven itself into search engines, workplaces, and customer service. The question is no longer if Americans feel the impact. It’s how they feel about it.

The answer? Mixed. Among those who say AI has changed their lives, 37% describe that change as mostly negative, compared to just 33% who say it’s been mostly positive. Another 28% land somewhere in the middle. That’s a net-negative sentiment of -4 points among those who say they are feeling AI’s impact.

How Americans Are Actually Using AI

When asked in their own words how they use AI today, the most common use case by far is search and research. Hundreds of respondents describe using AI as an alternative or supplement to traditional search engines, looking up information, answering questions, and conducting research. For many, AI hasn’t replaced Google so much as layered itself on top of it.

“I often use it as a dictation and Google replacement. It feels like a tutor, job counselor, and database rolled into one.”

— Hispanic/Latino Man, 35 to 49, Weak Democrat

The second most common theme is work and professional use. Respondents across industries describe relying on AI for writing emails, generating documents, analyzing data, and streamlining workplace tasks. Close behind that is writing and editing, where AI serves as a drafting partner, grammar checker, and brainstorming tool.

“Brainstorming ideas, improving my skills, small tasks like editing responses before sending.”

— Black/African American Woman, 35 to 49, Independent

Younger respondents and students frequently mention using AI for schoolwork and learning, while a smaller but notable group describes using AI for coding, creative projects like image generation, and health-related research.

The Other Side: Resistance and Resentment

But the usage data tells a two-sided story. A significant share of respondents say they are not using AI at all or actively avoiding it. This group skews older (the largest contingent is 65 and over) and leans Republican, but the resistance cuts across party lines.

A recurring frustration among these respondents: they feel AI is being forced on them whether they want it or not, particularly through search engines and built-in features they didn’t ask for.

“It’s forced upon me. I have no option to not use it, e.g., Google forcing an AI query whenever you search something up.”

— White, Man, 18 to 34, Strong Democrat

“Only in the automatic ways tech companies have foisted on me that I cannot opt out of. I have actively switched some platforms, including search engines and personal email, to avoid mandatory AI implementation.”

— White Woman, 35 to 49, Independent lean Democrat

This sense of involuntary AI exposure shows up across age groups and political affiliations, suggesting that the backlash isn’t just a technophobia problem. For many Americans, the issue isn’t what AI can do. It’s that they weren’t given a choice.

Looking Ahead: More Change, More Fear

If Americans are ambivalent about AI’s current impact, they’re outright uneasy about what’s coming. A full 70% expect their lives to be significantly different five years from now due to AI, including 34% who expect the change to be “very different.” Only 19% think things will stay roughly the same.

And the pessimism deepens when people look ahead. Among those who expect AI to reshape their future, 43% anticipate mostly negative changes, while just 25% expect those changes to be mostly positive. That’s a net-negative of -18 points on future AI sentiment, considerably more pessimistic than people’s feelings about the changes that have already taken place.

Future AI pessimism outpaces present-day concerns by 14 points, suggesting that fear-driven narratives are widely accepted.

In Their Own Words: What Americans Fear About AI’s Future

When asked in an open-ended format how they expect AI to change things in the next five years, respondents paint a vivid, often negative picture. The dominant theme, by a wide margin, is job loss and economic displacement. Roughly one in five respondents who answered this question raised concerns about AI replacing workers, automating jobs, or concentrating wealth among those who own the technology.

“Attempts to mass automate jobs will have a depressive effect of labor resulting in less jobs and higher profits for capitalists that they are unlikely to share with the remaining increasingly productive workers.”

— White Man, 18 to 34, Weak Democrat

“I think AI is a can of worms we’ve opened that we can’t close. I think there’s going to be massive layoffs. I think we’re gonna have huge unemployment. I think AI is going to lead to the wealthy in increasing their wealth while the bottom half sinks lower.”

— White Woman, 35 to 49, Strong Democrat

Concerns around job loss cross party lines. Republicans, Democrats, and independents all raise it as a top concern. It’s especially pronounced among younger voters, who are both the most likely to use AI and the most likely to worry about its long-term economic impact.

The second major theme is erosion of truth and a rise in misinformation. Respondents frequently express concern about deepfakes, AI-generated disinformation, and the growing difficulty of distinguishing real content from fabricated material. This concern surfaces across all demographics, but it’s particularly common among older voters and women.

“Already can’t believe most of what you see on internet, expect it to get worse.”

— White Man, 50 to 64, Strong Republican

“Make everything visual less likely to be trustworthy.”

— White Man, 65+, Strong Republican

A third recurring theme is the decline of human skills and critical thinking. Many respondents worry that AI dependency will erode people’s ability to think for themselves, solve problems, and develop essential competencies.

“A more dependent, less problem solving society. Increasing mental health issues.”

— White Man, 18 to 34, Strong Republican

“I worry that AI will become too advanced, causing many people to become reliant on such technology. Lack of critical thinking from people. Also, I expect harsher water/electricity regulations at the state/federal level due to AI/data center usage.”

— White Woman, 18 to 34, Weak Democrat

Environmental Anxiety About AI

One of the patterns in the open-ended responses is a rising concern about AI’s environmental footprint. Dozens of respondents, disproportionately younger women, specifically mention water usage, energy consumption, data centers, and the strain on the electrical grid as major concerns about AI’s future.

“AI is destroying our planet. I don’t want to have to fight for water in five years.”

— White Woman, 18 to 34, Strong Republican

“Use too much water. Raise residential utility bills. Take jobs from humans.”

— White Woman, 18 to 34, Independent lean Democrat

“Scarcity of natural resources, different lobbying groups fighting for water likely at the detriment of the average US consumer, likely moving to an international water grab, we need sustainable business operations.”

— Hispanic/Latina, Woman, 35 to 49, Pure independent

This is a theme that spans partisan lines, with both Republican and Democratic respondents raising concerns about water, energy, and data center impacts.

Not All Doom: Where Voters See the Upside

A meaningful subset of respondents see AI’s future through a more hopeful lens, pointing to advances in healthcare and medicine, improvements in research and scientific discovery, and the potential for AI to make everyday tasks more efficient.

“I hope AI can accelerate health/disease research”

— White Woman, 65+, Strong Democrat

“I believe AI will change things for the better and I hope it’ll all help our world thrive and be more positive letting us fulfill our goals and dreams easier and quicker too with the help from AI!”

— Hispanic/Latino, Man, 18 to 34, Pure independent

Among some optimists, responses include caveats. The most common sentiment among those with positive views could be summed up as: this could be great, but only if the right guardrails are in place. Many express a conditional optimism that hinges on regulation, corporate responsibility, or distribution of AI’s benefits.

“I think AI will negatively impact the world without strict regulations. I would love to see AI used in the medical sector for cancer detection and research purposes but am worried about the implications of attempting to use AI to replace doctors and other skilled workers.”

— White Woman, 18 to 34, Weak Democrat

Who Uses AI Most: Age, Race, and the Digital Divide

AI’s impact doesn’t land equally. Young Americans are by far the most likely to say AI has already changed their lives: 71% of voters aged 18 to 34 report their lives are different because of AI, compared to just 47% of voters 65 and older. The 35-to-49 age group falls close behind at 66%.

The racial divide is also notable. 67% of Hispanic voters and 67% of AAPI voters say AI has made their lives different, compared to 61% of Black voters and 55% of white voters. Across all voters of color, the figure is 64%, nine points higher than among white voters.

Women are slightly more likely than men to say they feel the change (61% vs. 56%), and college-educated voters report very similar levels of impact to non-college voters (58% vs. 59%).

The sentiment divide is where things get interesting. Among those who say AI has changed their lives, men are more likely to view the change positively (37% positive vs. 29% among women), and AAPI voters stand out dramatically as the most optimistic group: 51% of AAPI voters who feel AI’s impact say that change has been mostly positive, compared to 31% of white voters and 31% of Black voters.

Looking ahead, the future-pessimism gap persists across nearly every group. But voters 65 and older are the most negative about what’s coming: among those who expect AI-driven change, 44% anticipate mostly negative effects. Democrats (47%) and white voters (47%) also lean heavily negative on AI’s future trajectory.

The Tech Company Report Card: Google and Amazon Strong, OpenAI Not So Much

In the race for public approval, not all tech companies are created equal. Google stands alone as the most favorably viewed tech entity in the poll with a net favorability of +13 (38% favorable, 25% unfavorable). Apple comes in at +3 net favorable (31% favorable, 28% unfavorable), and Amazon lands at +6 (38% favorable, 32% unfavorable).

LinkedIn is the only social media platform with a positive net favorability at +3 (22% favorable, 19% unfavorable). Every other social platform is underwater, with TikTok (-31) and X/Twitter (-23) faring the worst. Facebook sits at -10 and Instagram at -5.

But AI-specific companies were – at the time of this survey in February – either relatively unpopular or not very well known.

OpenAI as a company carried a net favorability of -31 (15% favorable, 46% unfavorable), making it one of the least popular entities in the entire survey. Its consumer product, ChatGPT, fared better at -11 net favorable (23% favorable, 34% unfavorable): the brand name carries more goodwill than the company behind it. ChatGPT’s favorability was sharply divided by age: 28% of 18-to-34-year-olds viewed it favorably compared to just 13% of voters 65 and older.

Other AI companies barely registered. Anthropic (maker of the AI assistant Claude) had a 63% “never heard of them” rate, with just 4% holding a favorable view. Claude itself sat at 68% unknown. Palantir has better name recognition (54% unknown) but carries a -24 net favorability among those with an opinion. Voters of color consistently view tech companies more favorably than white voters: Google’s net favorability among Black voters is +33, compared to +9 among white voters.

The Bottom Line

Americans are increasingly aware of AI. A clear majority already feel its presence in their daily lives, and an even larger share expects the pace of change to accelerate. But the national mood is decidedly cautious. More people describe AI’s impact as negative than positive, and that pessimism only grows when people look to the future.

The open-ended responses add texture to the quantitative data. Job loss dominates the conversation, but concerns about misinformation, the erosion of critical thinking, and AI’s environmental footprint create a web of concerns that go beyond economics. The conditional optimism that does exist tends to come with heavy caveats about regulation and fairness.

Several of the biggest tech companies – Google, Amazon, and Apple – are far more popular than many other large American institutions. Still, the numbers around AI show that some companies building AI are struggling to win public trust. OpenAI, the most recognizable name in the AI space, is deeply unfavorable. (This poll was fielded before recent well-reported stories connecting Anthropic, the Department of War, and OpenAI.)

The demographic fault lines matter for anyone thinking about AI politics and policy. Young voters and voters of color feel AI’s impact most acutely, and they’re also the groups most likely to see the upside. Older voters and white voters skew toward pessimism. As AI companies put money into 2026 midterm campaigns and we see the reshaping of the labor market in real time, these attitudes are poised to change quickly.

Methodology

Change Research conducted this survey of 1,741 respondents nationally from February 5-18, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points.

Americans Want Answers on Epstein. Most Don't Think They're Getting Them.

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 05:00:00 GMT

On January 30, the Department of Justice released over 3 million pages of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the largest single disclosure under the Epstein Files Transparency Act signed into law in November 2025. The release included more than 180,000 images, 2,000 videos, and reams of FBI interview summaries, financial ledgers, and flight manifests. Since then, the files have triggered resignations, congressional hearings, and global investigations.

Two waves of Change Research polling, conducted in August 2025 (n=1,590, ±2.6%) and February 2026 (n=1,741, ±2.5%), reveal a country largely united in its skepticism of the official narrative around Epstein’s death, mostly suspicious that the government is protecting powerful people, and supportive of continuing the investigation.

Support for Continued Investigation

More than three in four Americans (77%) indicate that they believe it is important that the government continues the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s associates and activities, including 60% who believe it is very important. Just 20% say they believe it is not important.

This is not a partisan issue. Democrats are most emphatic at 91%, but independents (77%) and Republicans (64%) also register clear majorities in favor of continuing the probe. Among self-identified MAGA Republicans, 62% indicate continuing the investigation is important.

Younger Americans feel most strongly: 85% of voters aged 18 to 34 say the investigation is important, compared to 72% of those 65 and older. Women (79%) rate it slightly higher than men (75%).

Most Americans Believe the Government Is Hiding Something

When asked directly whether the government is keeping information about the Epstein investigation secret, 76% of Americans say yes. Just 10% indicate no, with 14% unsure.

This belief cuts across every demographic. Among Democrats, 95% indicate they believe the government is keeping secrets. Among independents, 81% agree. Among Republicans, 57% believe the government is withholding information.

Younger voters are especially likely to believe the government is withholding information. Among 18-to-34-year-olds, 86% say the government is keeping secrets, as do 87% of those aged 35 to 49. Belief in a cover-up is still dominant but slightly lower among older Americans: 70% of those 50 to 64 and 64% of those 65 and older.

These numbers are consistent with broader polling. A CNN/SSRS poll from January 2026 found that two-thirds of Americans say the government is intentionally holding back information, while just 6% were satisfied with the amount of evidence released. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from mid-February found 53% of Americans say the files have lowered their trust in political and business leaders.

The Trump Question

A separate version of the government secrecy question, shown to the other half of the sample, asked specifically whether the government is keeping information secret because it contains significant information about President Trump. Here, the country splits along more predictable partisan lines, but the topline is still striking.

A 56% majority say yes, the government is withholding information because it contains significant information about the President. Thirty-four percent say no, and 10% are unsure.

The partisan gap is wide. Among Democrats, 94% believe the government is hiding Trump-related information. Among independents, 66% agree. Republicans largely reject this framing, with just 17% saying yes and 69% saying no.

A Country That Believes Epstein Was Murdered

Change Research’s August 2025 poll provides a baseline for the depth of public suspicion around Epstein’s death. These numbers were captured before the Epstein Files Transparency Act was even signed and before the massive January 2026 document release. The skepticism was already significant.

Three-quarters of Americans (75%) indicated in August that they believed it is true that Jeffrey Epstein was murdered to protect powerful people, including 39% who felt it is definitely true. Just 10% indicated it is false.

This is one of the most bipartisan findings in the survey. At virtually identical rates, Democrats (74%), independents (79%), and Republicans (76%) all believed Epstein was murdered. Gender, region, and urbanicity produced almost no meaningful variation. This is not a belief confined to any corner of the electorate. It is the prevailing view of the American public.

When asked directly about the manner of death, 63% indicated a belief that Epstein was murdered, 14% believed he committed suicide, and 6% believed he was still alive. The murder theory has a majority across every partisan, regional, and demographic subgroup.

Deep Distrust of Institutions

The August 2025 poll also captures a broader landscape of institutional distrust that provides crucial context for how the public processes Epstein-related disclosures.

Eighty-eight percent of Americans indicated that they believe there are important historical events where the FBI’s or CIA’s real role is still not public. This belief is near-universal among Republicans (93%), but Democrats (82%) and independents (89%) are not far behind.

Eighty-seven percent believe it is likely that powerful people work together in secret to shape major political or economic events. Eighty-two percent believe major news stories are deliberately suppressed or hidden from the public very or somewhat often. And 88% agree that many very important things happen in the world that the public is never informed about.

These numbers describe a public open to skepticism about any official narrative. When the DOJ says there is no Epstein “client list” and no proof he was murdered, many voters are disinclined to disbelieve them. In the August 2025 survey, when respondents were told about the DOJ/FBI memo making exactly those claims, just 5% said the main reason was to increase transparency. The most common response, at 35%, was that the memo was released to damage or protect certain individuals’ reputations.

The Big Picture

The Epstein case occupies an unusual space in American politics: an issue where majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans agree. Americans believe the government is hiding information, and say they want the investigation to continue.

The desire for continued accountability in the investigation is strong across the political spectrum. Democrats overwhelmingly believe the cover-up involves President Trump, a view largely rejected by Republicans.

While there is a significant gap in the perceived importance of the investigation (91% of Democrats vs. 64% of Republicans), it is crucial to note that nearly two-thirds of Republicans still support its continuation. The distinction is one of intensity, not direction: 82% of Democrats consider the Epstein investigation “very important,” compared to 38% of Republicans.

Methodology

Change Research conducted the February 2026 survey of 1,741 registered voters nationally from February 5-18, 2026. The modeled margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points. The August 2025 survey was conducted among 1,590 registered voters from August 20-26, 2025, with a modeled margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted online. Some questions in the February 2026 survey were split-sampled, with approximately half of respondents receiving version A and half receiving version B.

Where Americans Stand on Reproductive Rights

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 05:00:00 GMT

As the nation marks Women’s History Month, new polling from Change Research reveals where Americans stand on some policies shaping women’s lives. The data, drawn from a national survey of 1,741 respondents fielded February 5-18, 2026, finds that large majorities oppose efforts to roll back reproductive rights, and even larger majorities support policies like paid family leave and workplace protections for pregnant workers. However, a deeper look at the crosstabs reveals a more complex picture: ongoing gender gaps, stark racial divisions, and a notable disparity between voter preferences and some policies currently being prioritized by lawmakers.

The Gender Gap

Americans are split on the question of whether women and men have equal opportunities today compared to 15 years ago. A plurality of Americans (39%) believe opportunities are now roughly equal, while 32% say women still have fewer opportunities than men. Additionally, 17% believe women have more opportunities than men.

The gender gap on this question is striking. Among women, 40% say they have fewer opportunities than men, while 36% say things are equal. Men see it differently: 44% say opportunities are roughly equal, and just 23% say women have fewer. Twenty-one percent of men say women have more opportunities, compared to just 13% of women who say the same.

Women of color are far more likely to say women still face an unequal playing field: 46% of non-white women say women have fewer opportunities, compared to 34% of white women. Among men, the pattern holds but at lower levels: 28% of men of color say women have fewer opportunities, versus 20% of white men. Nearly a quarter (23%) of white men believe women now have more opportunities than men.

On Reproductive Rights, the Public Sends a Loud Message

Voters oppose virtually every proposal we asked about that would restrict reproductive access, and they do so by wide margins.

Birth Control

Seventy-nine percent of Americans oppose limiting access to birth control, including 65% who strongly oppose it. Support for restrictions comes from just 13% of respondents. Among women, opposition rises to 84%, with 74% in strong opposition.

Women of color oppose limiting access to birth control even more (89%), with 79% in strong opposition. They are the most intensely opposed group in the survey on this question. Sixty-six percent of Republicans oppose restricting birth control access. This is slightly below the percentage of white non-college educated men, 68%, who oppose limiting access to birth control.

Abortion Pills by Mail

Proposals to limit or ban abortion pills by mail or through telehealth face 57% opposition overall (with 45% strongly opposing), against 34% support. The divide here runs along familiar partisan lines: 84% of Democrats oppose such limits, while 58% of Republicans support them. But the gender story is worth noting. Women oppose these restrictions at 59%, while men oppose them at 54%.

Emergency Pregnancy Care

The idea of making it harder for doctors to provide emergency pregnancy care draws even sharper opposition: 68% oppose, just 15% support. Among women specifically, 72% oppose, including 60% who strongly oppose. Restricting IVF? Seventy-two percent oppose that too, with women opposing at 77%.

Religious Refusals

Allowing hospitals or doctors to refuse care based on religious beliefs finds 72% opposition and just 19% support. Among women, 74% oppose, and among women of color, that number climbs to 75%.

IVF Restrictions

Restricting IVF draws 72% opposition overall. Among women, that rises to 77%, and among women of color, to 80%. Two-thirds of men (67%) are also opposed. Even among Republicans, 61% oppose limiting access to fertility treatments.

Where Almost Everyone Agrees

The family policy data reveals a fairly high level of consensus. Support for paid family leave hits 80% overall, with just 15% opposed. Women support it at 84%, men at 75%. The youngest voters (18-34) are the most enthusiastic at 88%, but even among voters 65 and older, 74% are in favor. And this is genuinely bipartisan: 92% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans support requiring paid family leave for new parents.

Strengthening workplace protections for pregnant workers reaches an even higher threshold: 85% support, 7% oppose. That is a net +78 margin. Among women, support is 89%. Among men, 81%. Democrats back it at 94%, and Republicans at 78%. It is rare in polling to find a policy question where roughly eight in ten members of both parties agree. This is one of them.

Increasing public funding for childcare draws 71% support overall (53% among those aged 18-34 strongly support it). Women back it at 74%, men at 67%. There is a partisan gap here: 92% of Democrats support vs. 51% of Republicans, but even that 51% figure means a majority of Republican voters support more public childcare funding.

Two questions in the survey reveal where gender dynamics get particularly interesting. On making it harder to get a divorce (including limiting no-fault divorce), 69% of Americans oppose and 19% support. But the gender gap here is the widest in the survey: 77% of women oppose, compared to 59% of men. Among women, just 13% support making divorce harder. Among men, that number nearly doubles to 25%. Women of color oppose at 80%, while white men show the lowest opposition at 54%.

On requiring parental notification or consent before a minor can get an abortion, the script flips. This is the only policy restriction in the survey that earns majority support: 65% in favor, 28% opposed. Men support it at a higher rate (71%) than women (60%), but even women support it by a nearly 2-1 margin. Republicans back it overwhelmingly at 90%, while Democrats are divided, with 39% in support and 52% opposed. Among voters 50 and older, support exceeds 73%.

The Big Picture

Taken together, the data tells a story that is both straightforward and layered. Americans broadly oppose proposals to limit reproductive health access: birth control restrictions, abortion pill bans, emergency care limitations, IVF restrictions, religious refusal carve-outs, and divorce rollbacks all face net-negative support, often by margins exceeding 50 points. At the same time, Americans overwhelmingly support proactive investments in families through paid leave, workplace protections, and childcare.

But the data also reveals a range attitudes on the current state of opportunities. Women, and especially women of color, mostly see a landscape that favors men. Men, particularly white non-college educated men, are more likely to see the playing field as level or tilted towards women. Men are also more likely to favor reproductive restrictions, even when they oppose them on balance.

Americans Split on Olympic Athletes Speaking Out as Politics Dominates Milano Cortina Games

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 05:00:00 GMT

New polling from Change Research, conducted February 5-18 during the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina, finds Americans almost evenly divided on whether Olympic athletes should use their platform to speak out on political issues.

Throughout the Games, multiple U.S. athletes made headlines for speaking out on domestic politics, drawing both praise and backlash, and putting the tension between athletic expression and national representation front and center.

The Games will also be remembered for what happened on the ice and snow. Team USA set a record with 11 gold medals, the most ever for the U.S. at a Winter Olympics. Alysa Liu won America’s first women’s figure skating gold in 24 years. And both U.S. hockey teams won gold in dramatic 2-1 overtime victories against Canada, with the men earning their first gold since the 1980 “Miracle on Ice.”

The Partisan Gap on Athlete Expression

Forty-seven percent of Americans say Olympic athletes should speak publicly about political issues if they choose to, while 43% say they should not.

The split falls sharply along party lines. Eighty percent of Democrats support athletes speaking out, compared to just 14% of Republicans, a 66-point partisan gap that underscores how even the Olympics have become contested ground in American politics.

That divide played out in real time. Figure skater Amber Glenn, freeskier Hunter Hess, and snowboarder Chloe Kim all drew headlines for speaking out on issues ranging from LGBTQ rights to immigration, with Hess facing direct criticism from President Trump on Truth Social after saying representing the U.S. brought him “mixed emotions.”

The tensions carried into the post-Games spotlight as well. Trump invited the men’s hockey team to his State of the Union address and announced goaltender Connor Hellebuyck would receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The women’s team declined a late-notice invitation, citing scheduling conflicts.

ICE Personnel at Olympics

Perhaps no issue better illustrated the collision of politics and sport at these Games than the deployment of ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations unit to provide security support. The presence sparked protests in Milan well before the opening ceremony, with hundreds gathering to demand U.S. immigration agents leave Italy. Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala publicly declared ICE “not welcome” in his city. Clashes between protesters and police erupted during the first weekend of competition.

Fifty-one percent disapprove of including ICE personnel to support security for U.S. officials and athletes at the Olympics, while 39% approve.

The partisan divide is stark. Eighty-six percent of Democrats disapprove of the ICE presence, while 73% of Republicans approve.

Why Americans Watch

When asked the main reason they watch the Games, responses were scattered. Twenty-one percent say they enjoy the sports, while 19% cite national pride and rooting for the U.S. But notably, 36% say they don’t usually watch at all.

Men were slightly more likely to watch for the sports themselves (23%) compared to women (19%). Older Americans showed stronger interest in national pride as a viewing motivator, with those ages 50-64 most likely to cite this reason (24%), compared to just 15% of those ages 18-34. National pride as a motivator also skewed Republican (27%) versus Democrat (15%).

The polling data, captured as many of these events unfolded, reflects a country where the question is no longer whether politics belongs at the Olympics, but how Americans sort themselves around it when it arrives.

Methodology: Change Research conducted this survey of 1,741 registered voters from February 5-18, 2026, with a modeled margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

How Mikie Sherrill Won: NJ Turnout Analysis

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 05:00:00 GMT

New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill’s historic victory was powered by winning over a significant number of 2024 Trump voters, according to a new Change Research analysis of the 2025 voter file. Governor Sherrill reversed recent declines in Democratic performance statewide and became the first Democrat to follow a two-term Democratic governor since 1960. This analysis breaks down the partisan divide in the electorate based on Change Research’s 2024 vote choice history model.

Last November, a record 3,334,359 people voted in the election for governor, continuing the increase in electoral participation since Donald Trump’s 2016 victory.

Despite a 276,494-vote decline in the 2024 presidential contest compared to 2020, the gubernatorial electorate expanded by 719,934 voters. This represents the smallest gap between participation in the presidential and gubernatorial contests in recent history.

In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Jersey by only 5.9 points, after she and Joe Biden won the state by 15.9 points in 2020. In 2021, Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli lost by just 3.2 points. Given this, many pundits expected the 2025 election to be close. Instead, U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill won by 14.4 points, a greater margin than Governor Phil Murphy won in 2017.

Overall, 73.0% of 2024 voters voted again in 2025. By comparison, just 58.3% of 2020 voters participated in the 2021 election. Change Research estimates that those who voted in 2024 and 2025 (92.8% of the electorate) went for Kamala Harris by 8.7 percentage points. 2024 voters who didn’t participate in 2025 went narrowly for Trump.

We see the same dynamic when comparing the 2025 contest to the 2021 one. 2021 voters who voted in 2025 went for Kamala by 8.4 points, while those who didn’t vote in 2025 went for Trump by 1.9 points.

Overall, the turnout rate for Harris voters was slightly higher than for 2024 Trump voters, reversing the dynamic from 2021, when 2020 Trump voters turned out at a higher rate than Biden voters did.

In 2025, we estimate that the electorate went for Kamala Harris by a 53.2% to 44.6% margin, a 2.7-point shift from Kamala Harris’s 5.9-point victory. Mikie Sherrill won by 14.4 points. We attribute this additional 5.8-point shift to vote switching—2024 Trump voters selecting Sherrill. In summary, we believe that more than two-thirds (68%) of the margin shift from Harris to Sherrill came from vote switchers, and 32% came from partisan differences in turnout.

This suggests the following for the election this year:

We should expect record-breaking turnout for a non-presidential election, even in places where turnout fell from 2020 to 2024.
Democratic turnout could be significantly higher than it was in 2021–2022, but so will Republican turnout. This could provide a firewall for Republicans that protects against losses in states/districts that went 10 points or more for Donald Trump in 2024.
Improving Democratic turnout will not be enough to achieve big gains. Winning over Trump voters will. From what we saw in New Jersey, that is achievable.

Public Divides Over ICE Mirror Washington Standoff as DHS Shuts Down

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 05:00:00 GMT

New polling data from Change Research shows that while Americans are deeply divided on how aggressive immigration enforcement should be, certain reforms enjoy overwhelming bipartisan support. Senate Democrats laid out 10 demands for ICE reform as a condition for funding the department, and Schumer has pointed to public polling to back his position.

Strong Support for Accountability and Transparency

The polling shows near-universal support for certain accountability measures. Ninety-four percent of Americans back requiring ICE officers to wear body cameras during enforcement operations, including 97% of Democrats, 96% of independents, and 90% of Republicans. This aligns directly with one of the Democrats’ key demands, and it’s one of the few areas where the White House has shown some willingness to engage.

Eighty-eight percent support prosecuting ICE employees who violate laws, with strong majorities across party lines (97% of Democrats, 93% of independents, 79% of Republicans). Eighty-five percent favor requiring more training for ICE officers (93% of Democrats, 86% of independents, 77% of Republicans).

Americans also support limiting where ICE operates. Sixty-five percent back banning ICE from conducting raids at sensitive locations like schools, churches, and hospitals (95% of Democrats, 71% of independents, 35% of Republicans).

The Sticking Points

One of the most contentious issues is requiring ICE agents to obtain warrants signed by a federal judge before detaining someone. Fifty-six percent of Americans support requiring ICE agents to obtain a warrant signed by a federal judge before detaining someone. But the partisan breakdown reveals exactly why negotiations have stalled: 93% of Democrats back the requirement compared to just 19% of Republicans, a 74-point gap. A senior White House official has reportedly called warrant requirements a “particularly challenging aspect” of the negotiations. That might be the understatement of the shutdown.

Similar divides emerge on local control. Fifty-four percent oppose allowing ICE to conduct operations without local government approval, but Republicans support it 82% to 15% while Democrats oppose it 93% to 5%. These aren’t gaps that split the difference.

Fundamental Disagreements About ICE’s Role

The polling exposes deeper disagreements about ICE’s very existence and scope. Thirty-six percent of Americans support abolishing ICE completely, a position backed by 69% of Democrats but only 5% of Republicans. On ICE’s budget, 51% support reducing it while 43% oppose cuts, but these toplines mask an enormous partisan split: 91% of Democrats favor reductions versus 11% of Republicans.

The reverse holds true for expanding ICE. Forty-one percent support increasing ICE’s budget (3% of Democrats, 80% of Republicans), 42% back expanding detention capacity (5% of Democrats, 81% of Republicans), and 43% support hiring more officers (5% of Democrats, 83% of Republicans). Meanwhile, 58% support limiting ICE enforcement to people with criminal convictions (88% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans).

What Americans Consider Acceptable

The survey tested various enforcement scenarios to understand what Americans consider acceptable.

Broadly considered unacceptable:

86% say it’s unacceptable to detain someone even after they show documents proving U.S. citizenship (including 95% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans)
76% say it’s unacceptable to detain someone without a clear explanation of why (including 96% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans)
67% say it’s unacceptable to enter homes without warrants or permission (including 97% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans)

More divided:

57% find it unacceptable to detain undocumented immigrants at courthouses, versus 37% who find it acceptable
54% find it unacceptable for schools or hospitals to share immigration status information with ICE, while 41% find it acceptable

Broader support:

81% consider it acceptable to prioritize removing immigrants convicted of violent crimes over those without criminal records, even if the legal process takes longer (including 76% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans)

Long-Term Residents and Family Ties

Americans face harder choices when considering enforcement against people with deeper ties to the U.S. The public leans against these actions but remains closely divided on some scenarios.

Public leans against:

57% find it unacceptable to detain or remove someone with no violent criminal record who has lived in the U.S. for 10+ years, while 38% find it acceptable
59% find it unacceptable to detain or remove an immigrant with no violent criminal record who has a U.S.-citizen spouse and/or children, while 33% find it acceptable
63% find it unacceptable to detain or remove a person who came to the U.S. illegally as a child and has lived in the U.S. most of their life with no criminal record, while 31% find it acceptable

The longer someone has been here and the more ties they’ve put down, the more uncomfortable Americans get with the idea of removing them.

Force and Protests

Americans reject certain uses of force by ICE. Eighty-five percent say it’s unacceptable to use physical force against people peacefully protesting (including 97% of Democrats and, notably, 72% of Republicans). Eighty-one percent oppose using force against people recording law enforcement from a safe distance. Sixty-six percent say it’s unacceptable to use tear gas without warning and time to leave.

But when violence enters the equation, opinions shift. Fifty-nine percent find it acceptable for ICE to use physical force to control a crowd when some people are being violent (including 25% of Democrats and 93% of Republicans). Americans broadly believe force against peaceful civilians is out of bounds, but that line moves the moment a situation turns violent.

The Underlying Immigration Divide

The polling also reveals how Americans think about immigration more broadly. Seventy-nine percent agree that “everyone deserves to be treated with basic respect, regardless of immigration status” (97% of Democrats, 85% of independents, 61% of Republicans). And 88% agree that “the U.S. has the right to enforce its immigration laws” (78% of Democrats, 86% of independents, 98% of Republicans).

But 65% agree that “in recent years, there have been too many people entering the U.S. illegally,” with massive partisan differences (33% of Democrats, 67% of independents, 95% of Republicans).

The Political Calculation

The data reveals an American public that supports enforcement with humanity, rules with compassion, and borders with dignity, but remains deeply divided on the fundamental question of how aggressive that enforcement should be.

Transparency measures like body cameras, training requirements, and prosecuting agents who break laws enjoy near-universal support. Restrictions on operating near schools and churches command clear majorities.

But once the conversation shifts to questions about ICE’s size, scope, and authority, partisan gaps appear. Democrats and Republicans essentially inhabit different realities on whether ICE should be abolished, expanded, or something in between.

The shutdown fight isn’t just about funding. It’s about which vision of immigration enforcement reflects where American voters actually stand.

Methodology: Change Research conducted this survey of 1,741 registered voters from February 5-18, 2026, with a modeled margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Red Flags and Green Flags

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 05:00:00 GMT

What Voters Say They Want in Their Political Candidates in 2026

As the 2026 midterm elections heat up and the 2028 presidential race looms on the horizon, voters are sending clear signals about what they’re looking for in political leaders. New data from Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal, reveals exactly what traits make candidates appealing or concerning to the American electorate.

The survey, based on responses from 1,588 likely voters, asked people to evaluate whether various candidate characteristics registered as green flags (positive signals), red flags (negative signals), or made no difference in how they view potential leaders. The results paint a revealing picture of an electorate that says it wants authentic working-class connections while increasingly skeptical of political dynasties and octogenarian candidates. We’ll note one caveat here, though: sometimes expressed preferences and revealed preferences can be quite different, and this research looks only at one side of that.

”Working Class” Takes Center Stage

The strongest green flag for voters in 2026? Being working class. A striking 67% of voters say this trait signals a positive quality in a candidate, with virtually no one viewing it as a negative. This represents one of the few traits that garners near-universal approval across the political spectrum.

The appeal of working-class candidates spans party lines and demographic groups, registering as a green flag with the majority of voters in every income bracket, including the wealthiest voters.

On the opposite end of the economic spectrum, being a billionaire registers as a red flag for 52% of voters. More than two in three independents see billionaire status as a negative for candidates. Being a billionaire polls best among Republicans, but most Republicans remain neutral rather than enthusiastic about candidates with massive personal wealth.

Experience Matters, But Not Too Much

Voters demonstrate a nuanced view of political experience. Having served as a governor emerges as a green flag for 45% of voters, with only 6% viewing it negatively. The trait performs particularly well among Democrats, suggesting the possibility that governors could fare well in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.

Interestingly, having no public office experience at all doesn’t register as the liability political insiders often project. While 26% of voters view it as a red flag, 60% say it makes no difference to them. This is especially true among Republicans, who have elected several political outsiders to high office over the past decade.

However, voters draw a sharp line between fresh faces and entrenched insiders. Coming from a political family has become a significant red flag, with 40% of voters viewing it negatively compared to just 4% who see it positively.

The Age Factor Looms Large

Age emerges as one of the strongest factors in the survey. Being over 80 registers as the single strongest red flag tested, with 78% of voters viewing it negatively. The concern crosses party lines, with strong majorities of both Democrats and Republicans saying advanced age is a problem. Even voters who are over 80 themselves largely agree that octogenarians shouldn’t be running for office. (Again, this may diverge from actual electoral results, in which elderly presidential candidates, Senators, and members of Congress have done quite well.)

Youth offers some advantages, though they’re more modest. Being under 40 is a green flag for 27% of voters and makes no difference to 61%. The trait appeals particularly to Democrats and younger voters themselves, but doesn’t help much with Republicans or older Americans. Still, candidates under 40 might be wise to ensure young voters know their age, as it’s one demographic where it consistently pays dividends.

Culture War Issues Cut Both Ways

The survey reveals that being perceived as far left or far right can be a red flag. Being a MAGA Republican is a red flag for 53% of voters, while 25% view it positively. Similarly, identifying as a Democratic Socialist registers as a red flag for 50% of voters, with 24% seeing it as positive.

On specific policy positions, supporting a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants stands out as popular, with 66% viewing it as a green flag. Believing reproductive health decisions should remain between a woman and her doctor also polls well, registering as a green flag for 63% of voters.

Supporting a 12-week abortion ban “to protect the lives of the unborn” becomes a red flag for 46% of voters, while 30% view it positively. The phrasing and framing of abortion positions clearly matter to voters evaluating candidates.

Professional Background Makes a Difference

Certain professional experiences resonate more than others with voters. Being a veteran stands out as particularly positive, with 55% viewing military service as a green flag and only 3% seeing it negatively. Business experience also performs well, with 50% of voters viewing it as a green flag.

Teaching registers positively for 38% of voters, while being a lawyer is a slight red flag (19% negative), despite being a common background for elected officials. Law enforcement experience falls somewhere in the middle, with 32% viewing it positively and 18% negatively.

What It All Means

The data seems to paint a picture of an electorate that values authentic connection to working-class concerns, military service, and political experience that stops short of dynasty status. Voters show clear preferences for candidates in their prime working years rather than those approaching their ninth decade.

As candidates announce their campaigns in the coming months, we’ll see who leans into these green flags and who has to navigate around the red ones.

Change Research surveyed 1,588 likely voters as part of the Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal.

Kickoff or Halftime? What's Drawing Americans to Super Bowl LX

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 05:00:00 GMT

Our polling shows stark age and gender divides in Super Bowl viewership motivations; Bad Bunny’s halftime performance is likely to draw young and Hispanic viewers but deter Republicans

In the weeks leading up to Super Bowl LX, Change Research polled Americans to explore why they watch the Big Game (if at all) and whether Bad Bunny’s halftime performance is driving them to tune in or change the channel.

The poll conducted January 13-19, 2026, interviewed 1,348 registered voters nationally as part of Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal.

Football dominates men’s viewing motivations, while women are more likely to watch for other reasons or skip the Super Bowl entirely

Americans are divided on the Super Bowl. While a narrow plurality (32%) tune in primarily for the game itself, nearly as many (29%) would “rather do anything else.” Among those who do watch, motivations vary beyond just football, including the halftime show (14%), commercials (13%), and social elements.

Viewing motivations differ sharply by gender and age. Men across all age groups watch primarily for the game, with this motivation strongest among men 50-64 (45%) and 65+ (58%). Women tell a different story. Younger women (18-34) are more likely to watch for the halftime show (39%), while women 65+ are more likely to skip the game entirely (37%).

Young and Hispanic viewers are drawn to Bad Bunny’s performance, though most Americans say it won’t affect whether they tune in

One in five voters say Bad Bunny’s halftime performance makes them more likely to watch it, with appeal concentrated heavily among younger Americans and people of color. Younger Americans are far more drawn to Bad Bunny’s performance than older Americans. Hispanic Americans are particularly enthusiastic, with over 40% saying his performance makes them more likely to watch. Black (28%) and AAPI Americans (28%) also show more interest than white Americans.

For a plurality of Americans, however, Bad Bunny is not a factor: 41% say his performance doesn’t affect their viewing plans, while 36% report it actually deters them from watching.

Bad Bunny drives Republicans away from the halftime show while most other voters remain unaffected by his performance

Nearly three in four Republicans (72%) say they are less likely to watch because Bad Bunny is headlining the halftime show, while more than a third of Democrats (37%) say his performance makes them more likely to tune in. For most Democrats (54%) and Independents (57%), however, Bad Bunny doesn’t affect their viewing decision.

About This Poll

Change Research conducted this survey among 1,348 registered voters from January 13-19, 2026. The modeled margin of error is 2.9%. The poll includes responses across party identification, gender, age, ethnicity, and education levels.

Nation Divided on Immigration Enforcement

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT

As federal immigration agents face mounting scrutiny following the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis this month, new polling reveals a country split nearly down the middle on deportation operations.

Americans are divided over Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, with support and opposition separated by just three percentage points in new polling from Change Research. The survey, conducted between January 13 and 19, captured public opinion before the January 24 shooting of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse, by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolis, which followed the January 7 fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent.

The polling shows 48% of Americans support ICE conducting deportation raids nationwide, while 51% oppose such operations. Opposition remains consistent whether respondents consider raids in their local area (50% oppose, 49% support) or on a property near their homes (50% oppose, 48% support).

The polling reveals sharp partisan divisions underlying the national debate. While 95% of Republicans support deportation raids across the United States, only 4% of Democrats back such operations. Among independents, 36% support nationwide raids while 63% oppose them.

Trump’s Immigration Agenda Faces Skepticism

President Trump’s handling of immigration draws mixed reviews. His overall approach to immigration sits at 48% approval and 51% disapproval, while his handling of deportations specifically registers 47% approval and 52% disapproval.

Public perception of ICE itself reflects similar polarization. The agency receives a 43% favorable rating against 53% unfavorable. The partisan split is stark: 90% of Republicans view ICE favorably, compared to just 3% of Democrats. Independents fall in between at 20% favorable.

Fundamental Disagreement on ICE’s Actions

When asked which statement comes closest to their opinion, 41% of Americans believe ICE agents are well-intentioned and prioritize keeping communities safe. However, a larger share (49%) believes most ICE agents are abusing their power and targeting law-abiding citizens.

The findings suggest the debate over immigration enforcement is less about policy details and more about competing visions of what federal agents are doing on the ground. Republicans see officers protecting communities from criminals, while Democrats see agents overstepping their authority and threatening innocent people.

Immigration Ranks Third Among Top Issues

Immigration and border security ranks as the third most important political issue for Americans overall, cited by 22% of respondents. Government corruption (36%) and inflation (28%) top the list.

However, this masks dramatic partisan differences. Among Republicans, 40% name immigration as a top-three issue, making it their second-highest priority after government corruption. Just 5% of Democrats place it in their top three, ranking it ninth among their concerns.

Persuadable Voters Skeptical of Enforcement

The polling suggests that while Trump’s base remains firmly supportive of aggressive immigration enforcement, persuadable voters are more skeptical. Among movable voters (those not strongly committed to either party), just 32% support ICE operations, while two-thirds (66%) oppose raids across the country.

With immigration ranking high among Republican priorities but drawing opposition from independents and Democrats, the issue appears poised to remain a flashpoint heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Change Research surveyed 1,348 Americans between January 13-19, 2026, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

The Fraud Prevention vs. Access Debate: Voters Perceptions of Welfare Fraud

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT

New polling shows most voters have heard about fraud in Minnesota, alongside a general belief that fraud is common in welfare and social services programs.

In the wake of large-scale fraud involving welfare and social services in Minnesota, new polling from Change Research reveals that a majority of voters believe that fraud in welfare and social service programs is common across the United States, though perceptions differ sharply along partisan lines.

The poll conducted January 13-19, 2026, interviewed 1,348 registered voters nationally as part of Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal.

Nearly 90% of voters have seen or heard reports of fraud involving welfare and social service programs in Minnesota, including a majority (53%) who have seen or heard “a lot”. The amount of exposure to news about fraud in Minnesota varies, however, with Republicans much more likely to report they have seen or heard “a lot” (82%) than Democrats (29%) or Independents (42%).

Among voters who have seen or heard about reports of fraud in Minnesota’s welfare and social service programs, concern runs high. Two in three say they are at least somewhat concerned, including half who are very concerned. Concern is near-universal among Republicans (97%), but far less common among Democrats (36%).

Against the backdrop of fraud in Minnesota, most voters believe welfare fraud is common nationwide

Seven in ten voters believe fraud is at least somewhat common in welfare and social service programs nationwide, while just over a quarter say it is rare. Republicans (95%) and Independents (81%) are far more likely than Democrats (42%) to view fraud as common.

Among Democrats, views are divided, with a slight majority (54%) believing fraud is rare. Democrats who report having seen or heard “a lot” about fraud in Minnesota are more likely to believe fraud is common nationwide.

Voters differ sharply in how they think welfare and social service programs should balance access and fraud prevention. A slim majority of voters (53%) say preventing fraud should be the top priority for welfare and social service programs, even if it means stricter rules that limit access, while 41% prioritize ensuring access to benefits, even if some fraud continues.

As with perceptions of fraud, views on how programs should handle fraud vary sharply by partisanship. Nine in ten Republicans say preventing fraud should take priority, even at the cost of reduced access, compared with just 19% of Democrats. Democrats, by contrast, widely prioritize access, with 74% saying benefits should be ensured even if some fraud continues. Independents are evenly split on what they think should be prioritized when it comes to welfare and social services. Finally, voters who have seen or heard a lot about welfare fraud in Minnesota largely favor prioritizing fraud prevention.

About This Poll

Where Americans Stand on Social Media Regulation

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT

The TikTok divestiture is done. But polling reveals Americans want the government to stay out of regulating social media.

The TikTok saga reached its conclusion last week when a new American-majority ownership consortium officially took control of the platform’s U.S. operations. The deal, finalized January 22, transfers 80.1% ownership to non-Chinese investors, with ByteDance retaining 19.9%. It’s a shift driven by national security concerns about potential Chinese government access to American user data.

While the government successfully forced this ownership change to address national security risks, polling from Change Research reveals broader skepticism about government involvement in social media. Americans broadly oppose government oversight of social media platforms, even as debates intensify over how platforms should moderate content, combat misleading content and misinformation, and protect users.

The Distinction That Matters

The TikTok deal addressed ownership and national security. Government oversight of social media, by contrast, is about content moderation: what speech gets amplified or suppressed, and who decides what’s allowed online. Those are fundamentally different questions.

The debate has intensified dramatically. Just weeks after the survey fielded, Meta ended its fact-checking program on Facebook and Instagram. Congress is wrestling with Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, the law that shields technology companies from liability for user-generated content. In December 2025, a bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation to repeal it entirely.

Multiple states have tried regulating content moderation, though courts have blocked many efforts on First Amendment grounds. Texas and Florida passed laws restricting platforms’ ability to moderate based on viewpoint, but the Supreme Court flagged serious constitutional concerns in 2024. Federal judges have struck down laws requiring parental permission for minors to access social media and restricting algorithmic feeds for young users.

In a Change Research nationwide survey of 1,991 adults fielded in November and December 2025, 56% of respondents oppose the U.S. government having a role in overseeing or regulating major social media platforms. Just 32% support it, yielding a net opposition of 24 points.

That opposition crosses party lines, though not uniformly. Independents are the most opposed, with 62% against government oversight and only 25% in favor (net negative 37). Democrats follow at 58% opposed and 30% in support (net negative 28). Republicans show relatively less opposition, with 52% against and 37% in favor (net negative 15).

Among adults 18 to 34, 63% oppose government oversight of social media, with only 26% in support (net negative 37). Opposition remains strong among those 35 to 49 (59% oppose, 30% support) and those 50 to 64 (56% oppose, 32% support). Only among those 65 and older does opposition soften: 46% oppose government oversight while 40% support it, the closest any age group comes to an even split.

The Daily Scroll: TikTok Usage Patterns

Among those who use TikTok, nearly half (48%) report using it at least multiple times per day. But usage intensity varies sharply by age. Among TikTok users aged 18 to 34, 62% use the app multiple times daily, with nearly a quarter (24%) saying they use it constantly or hourly. That intensity drops with age: 47% of TikTok users aged 35 to 49 use it multiple times daily, compared to 44% of those 50 to 64, and just 29% of those 65 and older.

Partisanship also shapes usage patterns among TikTok users. Over half of Democrats (53%) and Independents (56%) who use the platform do so multiple times a day or more frequently, compared to 37% of Republicans.

Where Americans Get Their News

That same survey finds social media has become a dominant news source, particularly for younger Americans. Among adults 18 to 34, 74% say they get local or national news from social media platforms like Facebook, X/Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, or YouTube. That far outpaces traditional media (TV, radio, newspapers), which just 34% of young adults use for news.

The pattern flips among older Americans. Among those 65 and older, 64% turn to traditional media for news while only 40% rely on social media.

Overall, digital media (online news websites, apps, podcasts) leads at 61%, followed by social media at 53%. Traditional media at 48%. Friends, family, or community networks serve as a news source for 22% of respondents, with that figure rising to 36% among 18 to 34 year olds.

The Bottom Line

The TikTok deal closes a chapter on the platform’s once uncertain future in the United States. The federal government successfully forced an ownership change to address national security concerns about Chinese government influence. But the polling reveals a separate source of skepticism: a majority of Americans oppose government oversight of social media platforms across party lines, with the strongest opposition coming from the youngest adults who are also the most engaged users.

As policymakers debate Section 230 reform, content moderation, and oversight, these numbers offer a baseline for understanding public sentiment. Americans may accept government mandated ownership changes for national security, but they’re wary of broader government involvement in how social media operates.

Methodology

The Change Research Compass Poll on Media, Identity, and Belonging was conducted November 19 through December 2, 2025, among 1,991 U.S. adults nationwide, with a modeled margin of error of 3.0%.

Americans Skeptical of Trump's Foreign Policy Approach Amid Greenland Tensions and Diplomatic Drama

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT

New Compass Poll Finds Strong Opposition to Military Force Abroad, Even Among Republicans, on Greenland

President Trump capped a week of diplomatic turbulence by announcing a “framework” deal on Greenland, claiming the U.S. will have “total access” to the territory forever. But new polling data suggests Americans are skeptical of his foreign policy approach and oppose using military force to take the Danish territory, even as the administration declares victory.

The poll, conducted January 13-20, 2026, interviewed 1,588 registered voters as part of Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal. Trump’s approval on international relations stands at 44% approve versus 53% disapprove, for a net approval rating of -9 points. His handling of the economy fares slightly better at 46% approve to 53% disapprove (net -7).

Views are sharply polarized by party. Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of international relations 89% to 8%, while Democrats disapprove 94% to 3%. Pure independents disapprove 71% to 21% (net -50).

The poll was fielded during a period of public disputes with European allies, including tariff threats tied to Greenland and heightened tensions around NATO and Arctic security. After initially threatening tariffs on several European countries, Trump announced a “framework” agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that paused the tariff threat. Danish officials said sovereignty was not part of any negotiation.

Strong Opposition to Greenland Military Force

Seven in ten Americans (70%) oppose military force in Greenland, including 60% who strongly oppose it. Just 21% support such action. This makes Greenland the least popular place for the U.S. to engage its military among nine scenarios tested, with a net support of -49 points.

Perhaps most notably, even Republicans are split on military action in Greenland: 42% support versus 44% oppose (net -2). Pure independents oppose Greenland military action 83% to 8%, a net -75. Democrats oppose it 92% to 3%.

The poll also tested a proposal reportedly discussed by the Trump administration to offer direct payments of up to $50,000 per Greenlander to encourage secession from Denmark. When asked specifically about this proposal, Americans oppose it by a wide margin: 67% oppose compared to 24% who support. Among Republicans, only 49% support the payment proposal while 37% oppose.

Other potential military interventions also draw majority opposition:

Mexico: 34% support, 59% oppose (net -25)
Colombia: 32% support, 57% oppose (net -25)
Cuba: 33% support, 58% oppose (net -25)
Syria: 33% support, 56% oppose (net -23)
Gaza: 35% support, 56% oppose (net -21)
Iran: 40% support, 52% oppose (net -12)
Venezuela: 42% support, 53% oppose (net -11)
Ukraine: 42% support, 51% oppose (net -9)

Ukraine is an exception in the partisan pattern: Democrats show 47% support and 46% opposition (net +1), while among Republicans 39% support and 53% oppose (net -14). Pure independents oppose 63% to 31%.

Maduro Capture: A Polarized Response

Voters approve of the early January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by a 10-point margin. Fifty-three percent approve of the operation that brought Maduro to the United States to face drug and weapons charges, while 43% disapprove.

Approval is sharply divided by party: Republicans approve of the Maduro capture 95% to 3%, while Democrats disapprove 79% to 15%. Pure independents lean against: 35% approve, 54% disapprove (net -19).

When asked what they believe motivated the Venezuela intervention (they could choose multiple options), voters’ answers split predictably: 85% of Republicans cite “combating drug trafficking,” while 75% of Democrats point to “securing access to oil” and 74% say the operation was meant to “distract from domestic issues.”

Americans Want Congress to Check Presidential Power

Asked what role politicians in Washington should play, Americans favor congressional oversight over giving Trump a free hand on foreign policy.

Forty-five percent want officials to speak up and take a stand against his actions, and 33% want Congress to serve as a check while giving him credit for successes (78% total favor some form of constraint). Just 23% say they want to “allow President Trump to conduct foreign policy however he feels is best.”

Among Republicans, 48% want Trump to “conduct foreign policy however he feels is best,” while 51% prefer Congress “serve as a check” while giving credit for successes. Among pure independents, 55% want elected officials to “speak up and take a stand against the President’s actions,” with another 34% favoring the check-with-credit approach.

A Challenging Landscape for Diplomatic Ambitions

The polling shows limited public support for a more aggressive push on Greenland. Seven in ten voters (70%) oppose using military force to acquire Greenland, and Republicans are essentially split (42% support, 44% oppose). Voters also reject the idea of direct payments to Greenlanders by a wide margin (67% oppose, 24% support).

This skepticism comes alongside an already negative baseline for Trump’s international standing: 44% approve and 53% disapprove of his handling of international relations (net -9). Pure independents are particularly negative at 21% approve and 71% disapprove (net -50).

Meanwhile, the administration’s “framework” announcement remains unclear. Danish officials have said sovereignty was not negotiated, and NATO has emphasized Arctic security cooperation rather than territorial transfer.

Methodology: The Change Research Compass Poll was conducted January 13-20, 2026 among a nationwide sample of 1,588 registered voters. The modeled margin of error is 2.7%.

Voter Concerns Around Further Conflict with Venezuela

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT

New polling shows a majority of Americans are concerned about further military conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela

A nationwide survey by Change Research before President Nicolás Maduro was captured showed that Americans were already concerned about increased conflict with Venezuela. The poll, conducted December 5-10, 2025, interviewed 1,520 registered voters as part of Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal.

A Majority of Americans Showed Pre-Capture Concern About Military Conflict with Venezuela

59% of voters said they were concerned about the possibility of further military conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela. A plurality of voters were very concerned (32%), with an additional 28% somewhat concerned about escalation. Concern in early December was highest with Democrats (86%) and Independents (65%), while just 31% of Republicans said they were concerned about further conflict.

Venezuela was already top of mind for three-in-four voters a month before the capture of President Nicolás Maduro

At the beginning of December 2025, 74% of voters said they had recently seen or read about what’s going on in Venezuela, including 41% who said they had seen or read a lot about the topic. Just 11% of voters said they had heard nothing at all. Voters over 65 (55%) were the most tuned in, saying they had heard a lot about the topic recently, compared to just 26% of voters ages 18-34 who said that they had heard a lot.

Sharp Political Divides on Whether the U.S. Should Take Military Action

Americans were generally split on how they would prefer to see the U.S. approach the conflict with Venezuela. 34% believed the U.S. should take strong military action against Venezuela if needed to protect American interests, while 31% believed the U.S. should focus on diplomatic and economic pressure, not military action. 26% believed the U.S. should not get involved in Venezuela at all. Republicans firmly supported President Trump’s agenda to take strong military action to protect American interests (74%); only 6% of Democrats shared that sentiment. A plurality of Independents (34%) believed that the U.S. should not get involved at all.

Voters Split on Recent Trump Administration Sanctioned Military Strikes on Venezuelan Boats

47% of voters said they supported President Trump’s order for multiple U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean that the administration said were carrying drugs for a Venezuelan drug gang operating in international waters. 47% opposed the order. Opposition to the order was high among Democrats (86% oppose), while 91% of Republicans supported the President’s decision. A bare majority of Independents opposed the action by 51%-to-34%.

About This Poll

Change Research conducted this survey among 1,520 registered voters from December 5 to 10, 2025. The modeled margin of error is 2.7%. The poll includes responses across party identification, gender, age, ethnicity, and education levels.

Data Portal

For complete crosstabs and additional analysis, visit the Change Research Data Portal. Subscribe to access comprehensive polling data and insights on key issues facing voters.

Contact

To learn more about Change Research’s polling capabilities and how we can support your research needs, visit changeresearch.com or contact our team for a consultation.

Americans Turn to Independent Voices as Traditional Media Loses Ground

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 05:00:00 GMT

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New polling by Change Research, conducted as part of the internal Compass Poll that feeds into the Change Research Data Portal, reveals a shift in how Americans place their trust when it comes to news and information. As traditional media institutions face skepticism, independent voices are gaining ground, and the forces shaping news coverage are seen as increasingly driven by corporate and political interests rather than journalistic integrity.

Independent Journalists Lead in Public Trust

According to a national survey conducted from November 19 to December 2, 2025, 34% of Americans say they trust independent or online journalists most to report honestly about their communities and the country. Only 12% say the same for national news organizations, and 10% give their highest trust to local journalists.

The trend crosses party lines. The preference for independent journalists is shared by 35% of Democrats, 34% of independents, and 32% of Republicans.

Younger Adults Break Even Further From Traditional Media

The gap between younger and older Americans in media trust shows different approaches to information. Among 18 to 34-year-olds, 38% place their highest trust in independent journalists, while only 10% trust national news organizations most. Older Americans show more faith in established media structures, with 14% of those 65 and older trusting national news organizations most, though even this group shows higher trust in independent voices (27%).

How Americans Consume News

When asked where they get local or national news most often, Americans rely on multiple sources:

61% turn to digital media (online news websites, apps, podcasts)
53% use social media platforms (Facebook, X/Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube)
48% rely on traditional media (TV, radio, newspapers)
22% get news from friends, family, or community networks
5% use religious or faith-based sources

Among those who get their news from digital and/or social media, consumption patterns vary widely:

63% rely on articles from news websites
40% turn to short clips or highlights on platforms like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, and Instagram Reels
38% watch long-form videos on YouTube
33% listen to podcasts or talk shows
32% get news from posts, emails, or updates from advocacy groups, campaigns, or issue-based creators

Among those who rely on traditional media, the most common sources are:

44% watch news programs via cable TV
35% watch news programs via streaming or live TV services (e.g., Hulu Live, YouTube TV)
35% listen to radio (AM/FM or satellite like SiriusXM)
32% read local newspapers
31% read national newspapers (e.g., New York Times, Washington Post)
29% watch news programs via antenna or over-the-air TV

When Americans turn to people they know for news, conversations with friends (71%) and family (68%) dominate, far exceeding group chats with people they know in real life (40%) or neighborhood community groups (34%). Religious communities serve as news sources for 19% of Americans, with Republicans (26%) more than twice as likely as Democrats (10%) to rely on their church or faith community for news.

From Active Seeking to Passive Discovery

Beyond where Americans get their news, how they encounter it reveals another shift. While 59% say they mostly find out about news by actively seeking it out through newspapers, social media scrolling, or turning on news programs, 41% report running into news spontaneously while listening to podcasts, watching sports, talking to friends and family, or scrolling social media for entertainment. Among 18 to 34-year-olds, 58% encounter news spontaneously compared to 42% who actively seek it out.

Corporate and Political Influence Seen as Dominant Forces

When asked what forces shape news coverage today, Americans point primarily to corporate and political pressures. One-third (33%) identify corporate interests and advertisers as having the biggest influence on how news gets reported, making it the most frequently cited factor. Political parties and elected officials rank second at 12%, while pressure from the federal government follows at 13%.

Democrats and Republicans both most frequently cite corporate interests as the primary influence, though Democrats do so at higher rates (38% compared to 23% of Republicans). The partisan differences emerge more clearly in other areas: Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to point to political parties and elected officials (19% versus 8%), and are also more likely to cite social media pressure and online engagement (18% versus 10%). Democrats, meanwhile, are more than three times as likely as Republicans to cite federal government pressure (19% versus 6%).

Social media pressure and online engagement rank as the perceived biggest influence for 13% of Americans overall. Younger voters show particular attention to these dynamics. Among 18 to 34-year-olds, 20% identify social media pressure as the primary influence, more than double the 8% of those 65 and older who share this view.

Broad Support for Press Freedom, Divide on Government Censorship

Despite skepticism about how news is influenced, Americans overwhelmingly agree that a free press is essential for democracy. Ninety-four percent strongly or somewhat agree with this principle. This support cuts across party lines: 99% of Democrats, 92% of independents, and 90% of Republicans.

However, views diverge sharply on government power to limit reporting. When asked whether the government should have the power to restrict what journalists report if it believes national security or public order are at risk, Americans are divided: 44% support restrictions and 53% oppose. The partisan split is stark: 74% of Republicans support such government power compared to just 20% of Democrats. Among independents, 26% agree.

Support for government censorship drops when the national security justification is removed. Only 9% agree that the government should have power to limit reporting based simply on dislike of content, while 81% disagree.

Americans Are Navigating a New Information Landscape

The findings show a public rethinking who they trust and how they get information. Traditional gatekeepers hold less sway. Corporate and political pressures are seen as significant forces shaping the news. Independent voices continue to gain traction across the political spectrum. And Americans remain committed to the idea of a free press even as they disagree sharply about the government’s role in regulating it.

The Change Research Compass Poll surveyed 1,991 registered voters between November 19 and December 2, 2025. The modeled margin of error is 3.0 percentage points.

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Americans Face Financial Pressures as Holiday Season Approaches

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 05:00:00 GMT

Recent Black Friday reports indicate that Black Friday shoppers spent more money this year even though they bought fewer items. New polling by Change Research, conducted as part of the internal Compass Poll that feeds into the Change Research Data Portal, reinforces this trend. Many Americans are feeling squeezed as the holiday season approaches, and the data shows that these pressures are widespread across age groups, genders, and political parties.

According to the national survey conducted by Change Research between November 19 and December 2, 2025, 44% of respondents say their personal finances are worse than a year ago. Thirty six percent say things are about the same and only 19% report improvement. The financial strain reported by Democrats is especially sharp, with 62% saying they are worse off, compared to only 23% of Republicans.

Everyday Costs Creating the Most Strain

When people are asked which everyday expenses are hardest to manage, food and groceries rise to the top at 56%. Saving for emergencies or unexpected expenses follows at 39%, and utilities come in at 35%. Healthcare and prescriptions create difficulty for 31% of respondents. Concerns about housing or rent affect 29%.

The data reveals notable differences by age group in cost pressures. Younger adults ages 18 to 34 are especially likely to struggle with housing costs. Half of people in this age group list housing as a top concern. Only 12 percent of adults ages 65 and older report the same problem. Older Americans feel the most pressure from healthcare and prescription costs. That group reports this difficulty at a rate of 33%.

Women report higher difficulty across most cost categories. This is especially pronounced for food and groceries at 60% compared to 52% of men. Healthcare costs also hit women harder, with 34% reporting strain compared to 27% of men.

Long Term Worries Focus on Inflation and Healthcare

When asked to think about the next three years, Americans’ top reported economic worry is inflation making everyday expenses harder to afford, cited by 41% of respondents. Rising healthcare and insurance costs are close behind at 39%. Another 34% worry that the economy will enter a major recession or crash.

Concern about unexpected emergencies like car repairs, medical bills, or natural disasters affects 33% of respondents. Nearly a quarter, 24%, worry that prices will rise so much that they will have to choose between basic needs. Equal shares worry about their savings or retirement being wiped out by inflation or a market drop and about increasing housing or rent costs.

Adults ages 65 and older are the most worried about rising healthcare and insurance costs at 49%. Only 27% of adults ages 18 to 34 share that concern. Younger Americans show greater worry about rising housing costs at 37% and about job automation at 22%. Older respondents are more likely to worry about their retirement savings, with 33% of those 65 and older concerned about losing their nest egg.

Holiday Spending Takes a Hit

These financial pressures are influencing holiday spending plans. More than half of Americans, 53%, say they will spend less this holiday season compared to last year. This includes 34% who plan to spend a lot less and 19% who plan to spend a little less. Thirty percent expect to spend about the same and just 11% plan to spend more.

The spending pullback cuts across political groups but is stronger among Democrats. Forty five percent of Democrats say they will spend a lot less compared to 19% of Republicans. Women also report deeper reductions. Forty two percent say they will spend a lot less compared to 25% of men.

Among adults ages 35 to 49, 40% plan to spend a lot less. Only 26% of respondents 65 and older say the same.

How Americans Are Cutting Back

People are adjusting their holiday budgets in several ways. The most common approach is buying fewer gifts overall, with 45% of respondents planning to cut back in this category. One third say they are avoiding Black Friday or Cyber Monday shopping. Another 32% say they are traveling less or not traveling at all.

Other strategies include choosing cheaper brands or generic items at 23%, skipping adult gifts and only buying for children at 23%, and cutting back on holiday meals or special foods at 22%. About one in five respondents are skipping paid holiday events like concerts or family photos (21%) or replacing gifts with quality time or free experiences (18%).

Democrats report higher rates of cutbacks across nearly all categories. For example, 55% plan to buy fewer gifts compared to 33% of Republicans. Twenty seven percent of Democrats plan to buy more budget or secondhand gifts compared to 13% of Republicans.

Younger adults ages 18 to 34 are more likely to use credit cards more than usual to cover holiday costs at 16% and to use buy now, pay later services at 11%. Older adults are more likely to avoid certain purchases instead of using those tools.

Taken together, the findings show an American public that is adjusting to financial pressure in a variety of ways. People are watching their budgets, reshaping their holiday plans, and preparing for costs that they expect will continue to rise. As the season moves forward, these patterns offer a clear view of how financial strain is shaping both routine spending and the traditions many families value.

Americans Overwhelmingly Want Full Transparency on the Epstein Files

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 05:00:00 GMT

National polling conducted in August and September 2025 shows that Americans across political groups wanted full disclosure of Epstein-related documents long before the Senate voted to make them public. The latest vote places Congress in direct alignment with one of the clearest points of public consensus in current politics: voters wanted the files released, they wanted the investigation to continue, and they wanted transparency from the federal government.

Near-Unanimous Support for Full Disclosure

Across multiple national surveys, large majorities of registered voters said the government should release all Epstein-related documents. In August, sixty-six percent supported full transparency, with only twenty-seven percent preferring that some information remain private to protect victims or individuals not implicated in wrongdoing. In September, support rose even higher, with ninety percent backing congressional action to force the release of the full set of files and only four percent opposed.

These findings show that the Senate vote reflects, rather than drives, public opinion. Voters had already reached a broad agreement that the information should be made public.

Public Skepticism Was High Before the Vote

Before the Senate acted, voters were nearly unanimous in believing that the Justice Department had not released all Epstein files. Only two percent thought the government had shared everything. Eighty-four percent said it had not, and fourteen percent were unsure. These views held across Democrats, independents, Republicans, and MAGA Republicans.

The Senate vote therefore addresses a long-standing gap between public expectations and government action.

Continued Support for Further Investigation

In previous polling, majorities across parties favor full disclosure, with fifty-two percent calling it very important to continue the investigation into Epstein’s network and associates and seventy-eight percent saying it is important overall. Support is also strong among Republicans and MAGA Republicans, signaling that the public would want the release to be thorough and comprehensive.

Voters also want to see continued investigation. Even before this wave of attention that we have seen in the last few weeks, seventy-four percent said it is very important for political figures or elites connected to Epstein to face further scrutiny, and ninety-three percent said it is important overall. Agreement again spans parties, with especially high support among conservative groups.

These results show that the Senate vote addresses only part of the public’s expectations. Americans want transparency and accountability to continue beyond document release.

Long-Standing Concern About Secrecy and Elite Protection

The latest polling fits within a broader pattern of distrust toward government transparency throughout 2025. Majorities believed the federal government was withholding information about the Epstein investigation, and earlier surveys from 2024 showed skepticism toward the justice system. The Senate vote does not erase these concerns, but it responds to them in a way that aligns with public demand.

A Small Minority Still Favors Limited Privacy Protections

Although support for full release is overwhelming, a minority continues to emphasize the need for caution. Twenty-seven percent say some information should remain private to protect victims or individuals who did not commit wrongdoing. This segment does not oppose transparency but stresses the need to avoid unintended harm.

What the Updated Context Shows

Based on the surveys and the new federal action, several conclusions stand out:

The Senate vote reflects overwhelming public will.
The vast majority of voters believed the government was withholding documents.
Roughly nine in ten wanted the full release( and they might now have it).
Voters across parties support further investigation into political figures and elites connected to Epstein.
A minority supports measured privacy protections for victims or uninvolved individuals.
The desire for transparency has been consistent and durable across surveys.

With the Senate vote complete, public attention is likely to shift toward what comes next: how the files are handled, what they reveal, and whether further action follows.

Election Week 2025: Data Wins the Day

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 05:00:00 GMT

While votes are still being counted in a few races, one thing is clear: good data wins elections.

This week, campaigns powered by Change Research turned insight into impact across the country. From Scranton to Dearborn, Edison to Hudson County, our polling helped leaders connect with voters and close strong.

From Local Races to Lasting Impact

The 2025 election provided a good reminder that good data still matters.

At Change Research, we powered wins across the country for forward-thinking candidates and causes.

🏙️ Where good data helped candidates win:

Paige Cognetti, re-elected Mayor of Scranton, PA
Jimmy Davis, elected Hudson County Sheriff, NJ
Abdullah Hammoud, re-elected Mayor of Dearborn, MI
Sam Joshi, re-elected Mayor of Edison, NJ
Marisa Sweeney, elected NJ Assembly District 25 (first Democrat since the 1970s)
Tim Keller advances to December runoff for Albuquerque Mayor

📚 Voters investing in their future:

Our research also helped Santa Fe Public Schools pass Mill Levy and bond measures, securing funding for classrooms, teachers, and infrastructure.

These campaigns and ballot initiatives shared one thing in common: they met voters where they were—with messages shaped by real, reliable data.

How They Did It

Behind every win was a new way of doing research.

We’ve spent the past year not only helping candidates understand their electorates, but also reimagining how public opinion data gets collected, shared, and used.

🔹 Speed + Scale: Our Spark Polls made it easier than ever for campaigns to test messages, measure sentiment, and get actionable results, often within days instead of weeks.

🔹 Partnership + Precision: From first draft to final memo, our pollsters worked alongside campaigns through every stage, building strategy, testing messages, and adapting in real time as the race evolved.

🔹 Depth + Insight: Using Magnify AI, we layered predictive modeling and large-scale data analysis to identify the patterns behind persuasion, turning raw numbers into real strategy.

🔹 Access + Transparency: Through our Change Research Data Portal, clients could view their data in real time, track trends, and pull insights directly without waiting for attachments or spreadsheets.

We didn’t just poll voters. We gave our clients a living view of the political landscape.

Looking Ahead to 2026

We’re entering 2026 with momentum and a clear vision.

Change Research is helping campaigns, advocacy groups, and organizations stay connected to voters all year long. From baseline surveys and message testing to tracking polls, ad testing, and targeting models, we deliver the full suite of research that turns data into strategy and strategy into wins.

Our Data Portal gives clients more than just access to their own polling results. It is a hub for insights where subscribers get early access to our internal national and issue polling, trend data, and voter analysis. This helps campaigns stay ahead of shifting sentiment and emerging narratives.

If your team is already thinking about 2026, let’s build the research plan that sets you up for success.

👉 Schedule a strategy chat

👉 Explore our methodology

To Our Clients and Partners

Thank you for trusting us with your campaigns, your questions, and your voters.

It is a privilege to do this work alongside you, understanding what people care about and helping you turn that into action.

Here’s to the next round of elections, and the next round of victories.

— The Change Research Team

MAHA, Medicine, and Mistrust

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 04:00:00 GMT

New polling reveals broad frustration with the pharmaceutical industry and insurers.

As the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement continues to influence health policy debates in Washington, new polling from Change Research reveals significant bipartisan concerns about corporate influence in health care, even as Americans remain divided over who they trust to fix the system.

The survey of 2,200 registered voters, conducted September 28-October 6, 2025, as part of Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal, captures both bipartisan anger and deep ideological divides in how Americans think about health, science, and trust.

Led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the MAHA movement has elevated concerns about pharmaceutical influence and food safety. Yet its skepticism toward vaccines and other public health measures has drawn criticism from medical professionals who see it as blurring the line between reform and misinformation.

MAHA: Mostly a Partisan Brand

Despite significant federal policy initiatives and media attention, the MAHA movement itself remains unfamiliar to many Americans, with awareness varying considerably across partisan lines. Republicans show notably higher recognition than Democrats or independents.

Among those who have heard of MAHA, opinions split sharply along partisan lines.

Bipartisan Anger at the Health Care System’s Beneficiaries

Eighty-eight percent of Americans agree that “the health care system often helps drug companies, hospitals, and insurers more than patients.” It’s a rare point of unity, shared by 83% of Democrats, 89% of independents, and 91% of Republicans.

Racial differences show varying levels of agreement but the same general conclusion. Black Americans are the most likely to agree that the system prioritizes the interests of drug companies, hospitals, and insurers (94%), followed by white (88%), Asian (85%), and Hispanic (79%) Americans.

That skepticism extends to the way health risks are communicated. Three in four Americans (76%) believe “the government and drug companies are not always clear in communicating the risks for medicines,” including 66% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 86% of Republicans.

Health concerns also reach beyond the doctor’s office. Eighty-eight percent agree that “chemicals in food and the environment may be a bigger health risk than people think.” Agreement is strongest among Republicans (95%), with broad alignment among independents (88%) and Democrats (82%).

Big Pharma’s Advice Not Wanted

Just 16% of Americans say they trust pharmaceutical companies “a lot” or “some” to provide accurate medical advice, while 80% trust them “a little” or “not at all.”

This represents one of the lowest trust ratings among all sources tested, trailing doctors and OB-GYNs (82% trust), pharmacists (71%), and even online medical resources (53%). Republicans and independents express the least trust (both 11%), while Democrats show only modestly higher confidence (22%).

Too Much Medicine

Nearly seven in ten Americans (69%) believe “Americans use prescription drugs too often.” That topline hides a significant partisan gap: 86% of Republicans agree, compared with 68% of independents and 53% of Democrats.

Women are slightly more likely than men to agree (74% vs. 66%).

Doctors Still Trusted, Even as Institutions Struggle

Doctors and OB-GYNs command the highest trust ratings in the survey, with 82% of respondents trusting them “a lot” or “some” for medical advice.

That trust runs strongest among Black Americans (94%), followed by Hispanic (82%), Asian (80%), and white respondents (77%). Partisan divides are visible but not overwhelming: 92% of Democrats trust doctors, compared with 75% of independents and 73% of Republicans.

Pharmacists also rank highly, earning trust from 71% of Americans. Online medical resources like WebMD fall in the middle at 53%, suggesting that while people seek out digital information, they still rely most on human expertise.

Government health agencies like the FDA and CDC occupy a more complicated middle ground, trusted by 44% overall, far below doctors but well above pharmaceutical companies. Here, the partisan divide is sharp: 59% of Democrats trust these agencies, compared with 41% of independents and just 30% of Republicans, a 29-point gap. Younger Americans (18–34) show higher trust of government health agencies at 50% compared to 41% of those 65 and older.

When Politicians Play Doctor

Few Americans want medical advice from political leaders. Just 25% say they trust figures like Donald Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “a lot” or “some,” while 73% say they trust them “a little” or “not at all.”

Partisan divides drive much of that difference: 51% of Republicans express some trust in political leaders on health issues, compared with just 10% of independents and 1% of Democrats.

Age and gender show smaller but notable variations. Older Americans (32% of those 65 and older) are more likely than younger adults (15% of those 18–34) to trust politicians for health guidance. Women are slightly more trusting than men (29% vs. 21%), though skepticism is widespread across all groups.

The Battle Over Medical Expertise

When asked whether “people should not rely only on official medical advice,” 49% agree while 45% disagree, revealing one of the survey’s most dramatic partisan splits. Two-thirds of Republicans (66%) agree, compared with 39% of independents and just 33% of Democrats.

Skepticism rises with age, with 56% of seniors agreeing compared to 41% of younger adults. Across racial groups, Asian Americans (52%) and Hispanic Americans (51%) are most likely to question exclusive reliance on official guidance, followed by Black (46%) and white respondents (43%).

What Americans Think Shapes Health Most

Americans see health as the product of many forces, not a single factor. Nearly half (49%) say individual choices, access to care, and genetics matter “all about equally.” Another 26% emphasize access to medical care and treatments as most important, while 20% point to personal choices like diet, exercise, and lifestyle.

This mix of perspectives suggests Americans see health as multifaceted, potentially complicating messaging from any movement emphasizing a single approach.

The Wellness Divide

Familiarity with wellness trends varies widely. Running is most familiar to respondents, with 67% reporting they have tried it or do it regularly. Yoga remains a familiar fixture, with nearly half (49%) reporting similar engagement. Guided breathing is just behind yoga, with 47% saying they have tried the practice. Intermittent fasting also ranks high, with 45% of Americans saying they’ve tried it or practice it regularly.

Beyond these common practices, participation drops. Just 20% have used weighted vests while exercising, 17% have tried ice baths or cold plunges, and only 12% have experienced cryotherapy.

Herbal supplements such as adaptogens (ashwagandha, reishi) fall in the middle, with about one-third of Americans (34%) having tried them.

Between Reform and Rejection

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has brought new attention to issues like drug pricing, food additives, environmental toxins, and corporate influence over regulators. At the same time, its embrace of scientifically disputed claims about vaccines and public health has blurred the line between reform and hyperbole for many voters.

Many Americans see health as shaped by both personal and systemic factors, suggesting space for policy solutions that improve the process for regulatory approval, expand access, drive down costs, and uphold scientific integrity, without alienating those wary of government intervention.

Methodology: Change Research conducted this survey online among 2,200 registered voters from September 28 to October 6, 2025. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 2 percentage points.

Tariff Changes Hit Home for Online Shoppers

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 04:00:00 GMT

Polling shows Americans noticing price hikes and delivery delays under recent trade changes.

In late August 2025, the Trump administration eliminated the de minimis exemption, ending a policy that had allowed packages valued under $800 to enter the United States duty-free. The change affected up to 4 million packages daily. More than 25 countries temporarily suspended postal deliveries to the United States, citing uncertainty about new tariff procedures. Shipping costs between Shanghai and Los Angeles nearly doubled as importers navigated the policy changes.

Two polls conducted in September and early October 2025, as part of Change Research’s internal Compass Poll series, which informs the Change Research Data Portal, surveyed registered voters about their experiences with online shopping and trade policy, revealing widespread disruptions to consumer experiences.

Most Shoppers Notice Higher Prices

Nearly half of registered voters report that prices feel higher when shopping online. In the September 5-10 poll, 47% notice higher prices, a figure that holds steady at 47% in the September 28-October 6 poll.

The perception varies sharply by political party. In the September poll, 70% of Democrats report feeling prices are higher compared to 22% of Republicans. The October poll shows similar divisions, with 68% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans reporting higher prices.

Women notice price increases more than men. In the September poll, 52% of women report higher prices compared to 42% of men. The October poll shows 52% of women and 41% of men noticing the same.

Shipping Costs and Delays Mount

About three in ten voters report that shipping costs more. In the September poll, 31% notice higher shipping costs, while 30% report the same in the October poll. Democrats notice higher shipping costs at 46% in September and 43% in October, compared to 14% and 16% of Republicans respectively.

About one in five voters notice slower shipping times. In the September poll, 23% of registered voters report shipping delays, while 21% notice delays in the October poll. Democrats report shipping delays at roughly twice the rate of Republicans in both surveys.

International Shipping Disruptions Create Concern

In the September poll, 55% of registered voters express concern about multiple countries temporarily pausing shipments to the United States due to confusion over new import taxes and tariffs. Democrats express concern at 91% compared to 18% of Republicans.

The concern levels vary significantly by ethnicity. Black voters express the highest concern at 79%, followed by Asian American and Pacific Islander voters at 76% and Hispanic voters at 61%. White voters report 49% concern.

Women express higher levels of concern than men, with 63% of women concerned compared to 47% of men. Younger voters report greater concern, with 66% of voters aged 18 to 34 concerned compared to 48% of those aged 65 and older.

Product Availability Becomes an Issue

Between 17% and 21% of voters report that some sites or products are not available. In the October poll, 17% notice product unavailability, with Democrats reporting this at 24% compared to 9% of Republicans.

Between 16% and 21% of voters report that some places have stopped shipping to the United States. In the September poll, 35% of Democrats notice this compared to 5% of Republicans.

Voters Split on Personal Impact of Tariff Policies

When asked directly about how tariff-focused trade policies affect them personally, voters offer divergent assessments along partisan lines.

In the September poll, 44% of voters say tariff policies are hurting them because everyday purchases are pricier. Democrats report this view at 81%, while 6% of Republicans agree. The October poll shows 49% overall saying tariffs are hurting them, with 87% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans holding this view. Among self-identified MAGA Republicans in October, only 4% say tariffs are hurting them.

Meanwhile, 25% of voters in the September poll say tariffs are helping by keeping jobs and production in the United States. Republicans express this view at 52%, compared to 1% of Democrats. The October poll shows 14% overall saying tariffs are helping, with 29% of Republicans and 1% of Democrats agreeing. Among MAGA Republicans in October, 37% say tariffs are helping.

About one in five voters say tariff policies have mixed effects, helping manufacturers while raising costs for consumers. In September, 17% express this view, while 19% do so in October. This perspective remains relatively consistent across party lines.

A Nation Experiencing Trade Policy Differently

The polling reveals a striking pattern: Americans are living in substantially different economic realities based on their political affiliation. While nearly half of all voters report noticing higher prices and shipping costs when shopping online, Democrats consistently report these disruptions at two to three times the rate of Republicans across virtually every measure.

This divide extends beyond simple perception. The gap appears in concrete observations about shipping disruptions, product availability, and whether places have stopped shipping to the United States. The partisan difference remains consistent across both the September and October polls, suggesting these are not fleeting reactions but sustained patterns in how Americans experience the same policy environment.

The demographic patterns add additional layers to the story. Women, younger voters, and voters of color report experiencing disruptions at higher rates than men, older voters, and white voters. Black voters in particular express the highest levels of concern about international shipping disruptions at 79%, alongside reporting price increases at 63%.

When voters assess the personal impact of tariff policies, the divide becomes even more pronounced. Democrats overwhelmingly say tariffs are hurting them through higher prices, while Republicans are far more likely to say tariffs are helping by keeping jobs and production domestic. Among the small share of voters who see both benefits and costs, this mixed view crosses party lines more evenly.

The data suggests that partisan identity may shape not just how voters interpret trade policy, but how they perceive and report their day-to-day shopping experiences. Whether voters notice a price increase, a shipping delay, or a product becoming unavailable appears closely tied to their political affiliation, raising questions about how Americans process economic information in an increasingly polarized environment.

Methodology

Change Research conducted the Compass Poll among registered voters online from September 5-10, 2025 and September 28-October 6, 2025. The survey asked respondents about changes they noticed when shopping online and their views on tariff-focused trade policies.